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College Football Betting Picks, Week 1

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CFP National Championship presented by AT&T - Alabama v Georgia Photo by Mike Zarrilli/Getty Images

Last Year Overall: 33-30-2

Last Year Lock of the Week: 9-4

All-Time Lock of the Week: 19-7

It’s year three of taking over for the immortal Dan Rubin and we look to continue our winning ways of last year. After finishing a mediocre 32-34 in 2016 we were able to add a win and shed four losses last year. I’m probably most proud of the fact that I’ve went 19-7 on the “Lock of the Week” over the last two years. Another season like that and I’ll be gunning for Stu Feiner’s job.

UMass (+18) at Boston College

I’m going against a pretty strong Steve Addazio trend here in that he has covered 8-of-11 as a double digit dog including a perfect 11-0 straight up in that time. I like UMass to cover ever so slightly in a 31-14 type of game. The Minutemen have just enough weapons that they can score a couple of touchdowns against the Eagles and I think Addazio gives a break to some of the starters in the 4th quarter due to the fact the Eagles will play 3 games in a stretch of 13 days

Miami vs LSU (+3.5) (at Jerry’s World)

For me this is a situation where Miami has high expectations due its 10-3 season last year and LSU has very low expectations due to its 9-4 season last year. I think the reality of the situation is that these are two pretty even teams with maybe Miami having the slightest of edge.

Aside from the closeness in talent, the home/road splits for Mark Richt’s club scares me because the ‘Canes were a much different team on the road/neutral compared to home last year. In Coral Cables, Miami was 7-2 and on the road/neutral were 3-2. On top of that, Miami was a brutal 1-4 ATS on the road/neutral. Give me the field goal with the hook here.

West Virginia (-9) vs Tennessee (Charlotte)

WVU quarterback Will Grier has gone from 30-to-1 odds down to 10-1 in some books as his Heisman Campaign steamrolls with momentum. I think we are going to see WVU coach Dana Holgorsen air it out in this one and rollup Grier’s stats, and in doing so the scoreboard. The Mountaineers crush a rebuilding (yet again) Tennessee program.

Louisville vs Alabama (-24) (Orlando)

I’ll admit that the spread scares me a bit, but I’m still taking the Crimson Tide. In the last five years ‘Bama has beaten the following name brand opponents:

FSU 24-7

USC 52-6

Wisconsin 35-17

West Virginia 33-23

Virginia Tech 35-10

Yes, Alabama would’ve only covered a 24 point spread in 2 of those games. However, I am bearish on Louisville this year and don’t think they are a very good team. I think ‘Bama stomps Bobby Petrino.

Lock of the Week

Michigan (+1.5) at Notre Dame

I’m rolling with Don Brown’s defense in this one. Notre Dame lost two offensive linemen that were drafted in the top ten, leading rusher Josh Adams, and leading receiver Eqaunimeous. On top of that, Brandon Winbush and his 49% completion rate doesn’t scare me against an elite defense like Michigan.

Unlike in past seasons, the Wolverines has a good quarterback in Ole Miss transfer, Shea Patterson and will be able to put up enough points to win.