Boston College and Virginia Tech: Eagles Win If, Eagles Lose If, Win Probability

Is previewing a game that’s over two months away premature? Perhaps. Is my projected win probability arbitrary? Entirely. Regardless, let’s take a look at what Boston College needs to do to take down the Virginia Tech Hokies.

BC Will Win If…

The offense puts together a statement performance. Virginia Tech held BC to 10 points in their 2017 tilt, but the Hokies defense suffered a ton of attrition in a tumultuous off-season, including two first round draft picks in Tremaine Edmunds and Terrell Edmunds, the dismissal of two starting corners, and the resignation of co-coordinator Galen Scott. The VT defensive line looks to be a strength, but if A.J. Dillon can break through the line of scrimmage, look for him to reel off some long runs against the inexperienced linebackers and defensive backfield.

BC Will Lose If…

They don’t come out swinging. Last year, Virginia Tech ran up a 17-3 lead in the first half, and coasted to a road victory. Things won’t get any easier for BC down in Blacksburg. In fact, the Eagles’ most recent visit to Lane Stadium resulted in a 49-0 drubbing in 2016. If BC fails to keep pace in the early goings, the Hokies are more than capable of running away with this one. In Justin Fuente’s two years as head coach at VT, the Hokies have only lost two games on their home turf.

Win Probability: 33%

This matchup occurs in the middle of a murderous stretch of BC’s schedule, during which they play Miami, VT, Clemson, and FSU consecutively. This is perhaps the most winnable of the four, which isn’t saying much. The Eagles need to steal one of these games to shake the shackles of mediocrity, and a gritty road win in the hostile confines of Lane Stadium would be a big step forward for the program.