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Boston College and Clemson: Eagles Win If, Eagles Lose If, Win Probability

What will it take to pull off the upset?

Boston College v Clemson Photo by Tyler Smith/Getty Images

As BC Interruption concludes our week previewing our upcoming matchup with the Clemson Tigers, let’s look at the game itself. Today, we are going to take one final look at the game, and take some stabs at what the Boston College Eagles will need to do to win.

BC Will Win If

Well, if absolutely everything goes right. This Clemson team is loaded with talent and very well coached; it’s hard to imagine BC can simply grind one out here. The Eagles will have to get creative on the offensive side of the ball, which has never been Steve Addazio’s forte. We’ve seen BC battle Clemson deep into games before, but to push it over the edge, they’ll have to remain the aggressor throughout. I don’t want to say that BC needs to play mistake-free football, because that type of mentality has often been their undoing in these types of matchups. They have to be willing to take some shots, hope to catch some fortuitous bounces, and keep forcing the issue through four quarters.

BC Will Lose If

They let the menacing Clemson defensive line dominate. The well-worn run, run, pass formula won’t do. If BC can’t keep the Tigers’ front seven honest on early downs with some quick throws and shots downfield, the Eagles will be looking at plenty of third and longs, a.k.a. feasting time for this vaunted pass rush. The BC defense is capable of holding their own, but if the offense can’t put together some sustained drives, the defense will eventually tire out, and succumb to Clemson’s speedy offensive attack.

Win Probability

8%. This is year six for Coach Addazio, and so far he has produced exactly one win against a ranked opponent (which was nearly four years ago). Forgive me if I’m not brimming with optimism heading into this tilt with preseason #2 Clemson, who are coming off three consecutive trips to the College Football Playoff under the direction of Dabo Swinney.

But hey, if Syracuse did it…