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BC and Louisville: Eagles Win If, Eagles Lose If, Win Probability

Wrapping up our look at UL

Louisville v Kentucky Photo by Andy Lyons/Getty Images

As we wrap up our preview of the Louisville Cardinals, let’s take a look at what BC needs to do to win this game. Of course this is written months before the actual game, but this is just looking at our history, what strengths and weaknesses UL brings to the table, and going from there.

BC Wins If

If AJ Dillon has any sort of game resembling what he had in 2017, the Cardinals are not going to win. UL does not have the offensive firepower like they had last season, and if they can’t contain the superstar Boston College is going to win. Looking at the Cards weaknesses at linebacker, and BC’s strength up front all signs point to the Eagles dominating up front. On the defensive side of the ball BC is going to need to play well at the corners. As Mark Ennis talked about earlier, the Cardinals are very talented at wide receiver. Lukas Denis, Will Harris and Hamp Cheevers are all going to need to step up and prevent big plays.

BC Loses If

They allow Juwan Pass to turn into Lamar Jackson. Now of course there can be no other Jackson, but last year BC made some mediocre quarterbacks like John Wofford look like Mike Vick. He has the weapons to spread BC out and the last thing BC wants to do is to turn this game into a track meet. Keep him in the pocket, force him to throw the ball, and let your talented secondary do the rest. If BC’s offense becomes too one dimensional I also smell trouble for the Eagles. Part of the reason the Eagles were able to win against Lousiville in 2017 wasn’t just the dynamic running of Dillon, it was some great plays by Darius Wade and Anthony Brown. While the Cards may not have an elite defense, they will be able to stop Dillon if they aren’t respecting the pass. Of course this is going to be a theme all year, as it always is for Steve Addazio’s offenses. If Daz and Scot Loeffler can continue to be aggressive, they can keep Louisville on their heels.

Win Probability: 70%. I know Louisville has been scary in the past, but I think the Eagles line up really well with the Cardinals this year. It’s a home game, and with the power running game and some nice short passes, I believe the Eagles will walk away with another conference win.