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Boston College vs. Purdue: BC Wins If, BC Loses If, Win Probability

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What will BC need to do to win this one?

NCAA Football: Nebraska at Purdue Brian Spurlock-USA TODAY Sports

As BC Interruption concludes our week previewing our upcoming matchup with the Purdue Boilermakers, let’s look at the game itself. Today, we are going to take one final look at the game, and take some stabs at what the Boston College Eagles will need to do to win this matchup.

BC Will Win If

Let A.J. Dillon do his thing. This game, while on paper may seem a tossup, has matchups that really favor the Eagles. Purdue is returning one defensive lineman, this early in the season against a BC offensive line that is returning 7 offensive linemen with experience. That should be a slam dunk for Dillon and that running game. And once Addazio establishes Dillon, Purdue is going to have to sell out on the run which will hopefully let Anthony Brown hit Kobay White and Tommy Sweeney. On the other side of the ball, Purdue is a better passing team, if the secondary can have a big game, and Zach Allen and Wyatt Ray can get to the QB they should be in good shape.

BC Will Lose If

This is a home game so of course the home field advantage swings to the Boilermakers. In these types of games turnovers are going to be huge. BC can’t afford to give the ball to Purdue deep in their own zone, and they are pretty solid at getting those turnovers. The Purdue offense seems predicated on some tempo, if they start finding a rhythm they could cause trouble for the BC defense.

Win Probability

75%. No disrespect to Purdue, but I think this game is tailor made for a rather easy BC win. The Boilermakers had a nice turn around last year, but if you look at their wins, who did they beat? I think this game plays right into the Eagles’ strengths and BC will take advantage of a very green defense.