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BC vs NC State: Eagles Win If/Eagles Lose If/Win Probability

What does BC have to do to win?

NCAA Football: North Carolina State at Notre Dame Matt Cashore-USA TODAY Sports

As we wrap up NC State week, let’s take a look at the matchup itself. Of course this is months in advance, but it’s summer time so let’s have some fun. What do the Boston College Eagles have to win, what will cause them to lose, and what is the win probability

Boston College Wins If:

They take advantage of a very young NC State Wolfpack defense. Bradley Chubb is gone, and there are a lot of new names for Dave Doeren and Company. If the Eagles can establish AJ Dillon, behind what should be a very stout offensive line, they should put up points. Anthony Brown was able to move the ball pretty effectively last year as well before the injury, if he can stretch the defense enough, getting some passes to Tommy Sweeney or a few long attempts to Kobay White or Jeff Smith, they should score points. On the defensive side of the ball, they can’t allow Ryan Finley to get comfortable. He is a rhythm quarterback, and if he gets comfortable he can pick apart any defense. If BC can get some pressure with Wyatt Ray and Zach Allen, they could force Finley to make a pass he doesn’t want, and allow BC’s very talented secondary to make a game changing play.

Boston College Loses If:

Ryan Finley dictates the pace of the game. While he may not be the flashiest quarterback, he could counter AJ Dillon effectively. If Finley can keep BC’s defense on the field, he could prevent Dillon from seeing the field, and long plodding scoring drives for the Wolfpack definitely hurts BC. I can’t see the NC State holding Dillon in check, but I could see him neutralized if he can’t get this touches.

Win Probability

55%: I really think this game matches up well for the Eagles. A weak NC State defensive line against a stacked BC offensive line seems like a recipe for success for the Eagles. However, it is on the road, and Ryan Finley is an excellent quarterback so I throw this more into the slight lean/toss up for the Eagles.