How Does BC Project to Finish Down the Stretch?

As the season winds down BCI will try our best to give everyone some idea of what BC’s chances are to return to the Big Dance. Today we look at projected RPI ranking. The Eagles sit at #74 in the RPI, which historically is a position that would leave the team out of March Madness. However, BC has a great opportunity in the final five games to move up in the RPI rankings. Here’s how the schedule finishes up (RPI rating)

Vs. Notre Dame (67)

@NC State (69)

@ Miami (28)

Vs. Syracuse (36)

@FSU (46)

The next two games are against teams that BC has to vault over to feel semi-comfortable come selection Sunday. The final three games are against teams that are either comfortably or somewhat comfortably in the tournament already and would go as big resume builders.

According to RPI Forecast here is the probability of how BC finishes out:

(5-0) 0.20%

(4-1) 2.72%

(3-2) 13.51%

(2-3) 32.63%

(1-4) 36.58%

(0-5) 14.08%

As you can see, FPI Forecast has it as a 80%+ chance that the Eagles win 2 or less to close out the season. However, I think all of us are a little more optimistic than that. So what would be BC’s projected RPI based on how it finishes the season?

(5-0) 43

(4-1) 54

(3-2) 65

(2-3) 80

(1-4) 96

(0-5) 112

Finishing 4-1 looks like it would put BC near a lock to make the Tournament. Anything less than that and it’s likely the Eagles will have to do some damage in the ACC Tournament to get off the bubble.