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BC Hoops Bubble Watch

NCAA Basketball: Florida State at Boston College Paul Rutherford-USA TODAY Sports

The Eagles have moved back into the bubble situation after an upset win over Florida State at Conte Forum on Monday night. At the moment BC has two quality wins on its resume and not too many blemishes to go along with it:

Big Wins (especially on the road or on a neutral)

Over the last few years the selection committee has put a premium on victories over elite teams. It feels like the committee would rather you see you beat one elite team rather than 5 different teams ranked 50-100. BC’s win over Duke remains one of the best of any team in the country as the Blue Devils remain the favorite in Vegas to win the title. Duke has some easy games coming up against Pitt and Wake so it should keep rolling right along.

The 2nd best win for BC is over FSU, who currently has a RPI rating of 44 and counts as another top 50 win. BC fans now will have to become FSU fans from here on out. The ‘Noles have a tricky match-up at Virginia Tech this weekend.

Bad Losses

Going strictly by the numbers BC doesn’t have any bad losses yet. Nebraska and Providence remain the two teams that are the most in jeopardy of turning into a bad loss but both teams enjoyed success on Monday night like BC did.

Nebraska is the “worst loss” on the season but after a buzzer beater victory last night the Huskers are up to #70 in the RPI Rankings. The Friars upset Butler last night and moved up to 40th in the RPI rankings.

Good Losses

People often laugh at the “good losses” category but it really is an actual things with the selection committee. The bottom line is that you don’t get punished for losing to good teams. BC has lost to four teams in the top 15 in the RPI: #2 Virginia, #4 UNC, #6 Clemson, and #14 Texas Tech.

Opportunities Ahead

When I wrote a bubble watch article two weeks ago I said that the Eagles needed to find a way to go 3-2 to stay on the bubble. BC did just that with wins over Wake, Dartmouth and FSU.

The next five game stretch is a little more daunting and will require BC to grab at least two wins to stay on the bubble. The stretch starts with back-to-back road games against #17 Louisville and #33 Syracuse. If BC wants to move closer to a tournament spot than the bubble than picking up a win against one of these teams would be key. The Eagles don’t have any good road victories right now and are running out of time to do so. After that, BC has two winnable games at home against VT and GT. Like I said, at a minimum you’d like to see them grab two wins there. The final game of the five game stretch comes on the road at Notre Dame. The ‘Irish are playing without their injured star, Boznie Colson, so this could be another opportunity for BC.