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To date, it’s been pretty amazing how close The Book has been in its lines as opposed to the Vegas spread. Using the Danny Sheridan opening line as our basis, this week, incredibly, there are 13 of the 53 games with lines on them this week where the predicted Book spread is within 1 point of the Vegas line. 14 more of them are within 2 points, while another 2 are identical to the line. Not to mention how many more are within a FG.
That obviously leaves us straddling the fence on most of these and hoping to land on the right side, but also leaves me very pleased with the alterations made in the formula during the off season.
This happened just two weeks ago and we ended up on the right side of that fence more often than not, hitting 65% winners. Let’s see what this week brings.
You will also notice that I have included the Sheridan spreads, so something to note how we get our percentage winners.
In terms of comparison with the big boy polls, we are now #16 in the straight up winners and #13 in terms of winners against the spread. The Sagarin Golden Mean leads against the spread and Atomic Football leads straight up. You can find all of that information on Prediction Tracker.
As for Boston College, like the Notre Dame loss, the Clemson loss was not overly devastating to their Strength of Record rating and actually helped their Power rating.
The Eagles sit at 81 in the Strength of Record rating, 80 in the Power rankings and 66th in the Combined. The reason the Combined ranking is so high is that to date, BC has played what The Book looks at as the nation’s toughest schedule. Regardless of a win or loss this week, the Combined ranking is likely to look worse next week, just because Central Michigan isn’t the quality opponent that any of the previous four were.
Interesting that after the Clemson game a year ago, things didn’t look overly rosy looking down the road. In BC’s six remaining games post Clemson 2016, the Eagles were an underdog in four of them, including being a 21 point dog at NC State and a 13 point dog at Wake. They were also favored by 5 1⁄2 against Syracuse.
That shows how quickly things can change during a season.
The Eagles are an 11.1 point favorite this week vs Central Michigan and here are the rest of the season spreads based on today’s numbers.
Virginia Tech 16.1 at BC
at Louisville 19.0 BC
at Virginia 6.5 BC
Florida State 21.7 at BC
NC State 10.8 at BC
BC 13.1 UConn
at Syracuse 11.5 BC
This would get the Eagles to the 2017 barn at 3-9 overall and 0-8 in the ACC which wouldn’t be looked at too favorably by the masses. I do believe the FSU ranking is out of whack based on what we know the Noles are right now and Syracuse looks a bit high too, but overall, not crazy and certainly some reason as of September 26 to think this is where BC is heading.
On the national front, USC is still the #1 team in the SOR poll, although Alabama (and rightfully so), has taken the lead in the Power ratings.
Enjoy the games and Go Eagles!
Final Combined Rankings
RANK | TEAM | WON | LOST | POWER | SOR | MASSEY | SAGARIN |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
RANK | TEAM | WON | LOST | POWER | SOR | MASSEY | SAGARIN |
1 | ALABAMA | 13 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
2 | GEORGIA | 13 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
3 | OHIO ST | 12 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 3 | 2 |
4 | OKLAHOMA | 12 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 7 | 6 |
5 | WISCONSIN | 13 | 1 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 7 |
6 | CLEMSON | 12 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
7 | PENN ST | 11 | 2 | 6 | 9 | 6 | 4 |
8 | USC | 11 | 3 | 15 | 8 | 14 | 15 |
9 | WASHINGTON | 10 | 3 | 8 | 16 | 12 | 9 |
10 | CENTRAL FLORIDA | 13 | 0 | 18 | 7 | 8 | 13 |
11 | NOTRE DAME | 10 | 3 | 13 | 10 | 9 | 10 |
12 | TCU | 11 | 3 | 12 | 11 | 11 | 12 |
13 | AUBURN | 10 | 4 | 9 | 15 | 10 | 8 |
14 | OKLAHOMA ST | 10 | 3 | 10 | 13 | 16 | 11 |
15 | MICHIGAN ST | 10 | 3 | 23 | 12 | 15 | 23 |
16 | NORTHWESTERN | 10 | 3 | 20 | 18 | 17 | 20 |
17 | MIAMI FL | 10 | 3 | 29 | 14 | 13 | 16 |
18 | LSU | 9 | 4 | 11 | 25 | 22 | 19 |
19 | NORTH CAROLINA ST | 9 | 4 | 19 | 19 | 19 | 22 |
20 | STANFORD | 9 | 5 | 14 | 29 | 20 | 14 |
21 | MEMPHIS | 10 | 3 | 28 | 22 | 24 | 31 |
22 | BOISE ST | 11 | 3 | 39 | 17 | 25 | 32 |
23 | VIRGINIA TECH | 9 | 4 | 27 | 24 | 23 | 21 |
24 | IOWA ST | 8 | 5 | 22 | 32 | 27 | 25 |
25 | MISSISSIPPI ST | 9 | 4 | 30 | 23 | 21 | 17 |
26 | WASHINGTON ST | 9 | 4 | 36 | 20 | 33 | 37 |
27 | SOUTH CAROLINA | 9 | 4 | 37 | 21 | 30 | 33 |
28 | MICHIGAN | 8 | 5 | 25 | 37 | 26 | 26 |
29 | KANSAS ST | 8 | 5 | 26 | 38 | 37 | 30 |
30 | TEXAS | 7 | 6 | 17 | 42 | 36 | 27 |
31 | FLORIDA ATLANTIC | 11 | 3 | 35 | 27 | 32 | 45 |
32 | IOWA | 8 | 5 | 34 | 30 | 18 | 18 |
33 | WAKE FOREST | 8 | 5 | 31 | 36 | 28 | 29 |
34 | LOUISVILLE | 8 | 5 | 24 | 39 | 31 | 24 |
35 | FLORIDA ST | 7 | 6 | 16 | 46 | 35 | 28 |
36 | SOUTH FLORIDA | 10 | 2 | 44 | 28 | 29 | 40 |
37 | UTAH | 7 | 6 | 21 | 49 | 47 | 34 |
38 | OREGON | 7 | 6 | 33 | 43 | 48 | 39 |
39 | SAN DIEGO ST | 10 | 3 | 53 | 31 | 41 | 57 |
40 | TOLEDO | 11 | 3 | 58 | 26 | 43 | 65 |
41 | DUKE | 7 | 6 | 32 | 48 | 44 | 38 |
42 | BOSTON COLLEGE | 7 | 6 | 40 | 41 | 34 | 35 |
43 | TROY | 11 | 2 | 59 | 33 | 42 | 63 |
44 | FRESNO ST | 10 | 4 | 57 | 35 | 38 | 51 |
45 | ARIZONA ST | 7 | 6 | 49 | 40 | 49 | 43 |
46 | PURDUE | 7 | 6 | 45 | 44 | 39 | 36 |
47 | ARMY | 10 | 3 | 62 | 34 | 40 | 58 |
48 | TEXAS A&M | 7 | 6 | 42 | 47 | 45 | 42 |
49 | MISSOURI | 7 | 6 | 38 | 59 | 53 | 49 |
50 | WEST VIRGINIA | 7 | 6 | 47 | 45 | 51 | 47 |
51 | ARIZONA | 7 | 6 | 46 | 53 | 58 | 50 |
52 | TEXAS TECH | 6 | 7 | 48 | 56 | 54 | 46 |
53 | UCLA | 6 | 7 | 54 | 50 | 59 | 54 |
54 | GEORGIA TECH | 5 | 6 | 43 | 66 | 50 | 41 |
55 | NAVY | 7 | 6 | 55 | 54 | 46 | 53 |
56 | PITTSBURGH | 5 | 7 | 41 | 72 | 62 | 44 |
57 | KENTUCKY | 7 | 6 | 63 | 51 | 56 | 62 |
58 | MISSISSIPPI | 6 | 6 | 52 | 67 | 60 | 55 |
59 | CALIFORNIA | 5 | 7 | 50 | 69 | 70 | 52 |
60 | HOUSTON | 7 | 5 | 61 | 57 | 52 | 59 |
61 | APPALACHIAN ST | 9 | 4 | 65 | 55 | 55 | 56 |
62 | OHIO | 9 | 4 | 67 | 58 | 57 | 61 |
63 | INDIANA | 5 | 7 | 51 | 84 | 61 | 48 |
64 | TEMPLE | 7 | 6 | 66 | 68 | 63 | 67 |
65 | WYOMING | 8 | 5 | 69 | 64 | 67 | 70 |
66 | FLORIDA | 4 | 7 | 56 | 81 | 71 | 64 |
67 | NORTHERN ILLINOIS | 8 | 5 | 75 | 60 | 64 | 73 |
68 | MARSHALL | 8 | 5 | 78 | 61 | 68 | 79 |
69 | VIRGINIA | 6 | 7 | 77 | 65 | 72 | 76 |
70 | COLORADO | 5 | 7 | 64 | 83 | 85 | 66 |
71 | MINNESOTA | 5 | 7 | 71 | 76 | 69 | 60 |
72 | COLORADO ST | 7 | 6 | 73 | 75 | 79 | 78 |
73 | CENTRAL MICHIGAN | 8 | 5 | 90 | 62 | 75 | 91 |
74 | NORTH TEXAS | 9 | 5 | 101 | 52 | 65 | 93 |
75 | SYRACUSE | 4 | 8 | 70 | 86 | 74 | 69 |
76 | SOUTHERN MISS | 8 | 5 | 82 | 70 | 82 | 94 |
77 | SMU | 7 | 6 | 88 | 71 | 66 | 80 |
78 | NEBRASKA | 4 | 8 | 72 | 87 | 76 | 72 |
79 | VANDERBILT | 5 | 7 | 76 | 85 | 78 | 77 |
80 | NORTH CAROLINA | 3 | 9 | 60 | 102 | 89 | 68 |
81 | MIDDLE TENNESSEE | 7 | 6 | 87 | 77 | 88 | 92 |
82 | LOUISIANA TECH | 7 | 6 | 85 | 79 | 77 | 75 |
83 | ARKANSAS | 4 | 8 | 74 | 92 | 83 | 71 |
84 | FLORIDA INTL | 8 | 5 | 102 | 63 | 86 | 101 |
85 | MARYLAND | 4 | 8 | 89 | 82 | 73 | 74 |
86 | WESTERN MICHIGAN | 6 | 6 | 79 | 89 | 81 | 81 |
87 | ARKANSAS ST | 7 | 5 | 83 | 88 | 84 | 82 |
88 | TULANE | 5 | 7 | 80 | 93 | 80 | 84 |
89 | UTAH ST | 6 | 7 | 86 | 91 | 93 | 83 |
90 | TENNESSEE | 4 | 8 | 81 | 95 | 92 | 85 |
91 | BUFFALO | 6 | 6 | 93 | 90 | 87 | 87 |
92 | EASTERN MICHIGAN | 5 | 7 | 84 | 98 | 94 | 88 |
93 | TEXAS-SAN ANTONIO | 6 | 5 | 92 | 94 | 96 | 97 |
94 | AIR FORCE | 5 | 7 | 91 | 97 | 91 | 86 |
95 | NEW MEXICO ST | 7 | 6 | 105 | 80 | 98 | 99 |
96 | RUTGERS | 4 | 8 | 94 | 96 | 95 | 90 |
97 | UAB | 8 | 5 | 108 | 73 | 97 | 106 |
98 | AKRON | 7 | 7 | 109 | 74 | 90 | 102 |
99 | BAYLOR | 1 | 11 | 68 | 119 | 106 | 89 |
100 | GEORGIA ST | 7 | 5 | 115 | 78 | 99 | 114 |
101 | MIAMI OH | 5 | 7 | 98 | 104 | 100 | 96 |
102 | BYU | 4 | 9 | 96 | 108 | 103 | 98 |
103 | UNLV | 5 | 7 | 104 | 101 | 102 | 103 |
104 | MASSACHUSETTS | 4 | 8 | 95 | 110 | 105 | 104 |
105 | WESTERN KENTUCKY | 6 | 7 | 107 | 100 | 104 | 110 |
106 | LOUISIANA MONROE | 4 | 8 | 106 | 106 | 110 | 111 |
107 | NEVADA | 3 | 9 | 100 | 114 | 107 | 100 |
108 | ILLINOIS | 2 | 10 | 103 | 112 | 111 | 105 |
109 | CINCINNATI | 4 | 8 | 113 | 105 | 101 | 107 |
110 | TULSA | 2 | 10 | 99 | 117 | 108 | 95 |
111 | OREGON ST | 1 | 11 | 97 | 122 | 119 | 109 |
112 | OLD DOMINION | 5 | 7 | 119 | 99 | 113 | 118 |
113 | IDAHO | 4 | 8 | 110 | 109 | 114 | 112 |
114 | EAST CAROLINA | 3 | 9 | 118 | 107 | 109 | 108 |
115 | LOUISIANA | 5 | 7 | 122 | 103 | 117 | 119 |
116 | SOUTH ALABAMA | 4 | 8 | 112 | 113 | 115 | 121 |
117 | CONNECTICUT | 3 | 9 | 114 | 111 | 112 | 113 |
118 | NEW MEXICO | 3 | 9 | 111 | 115 | 116 | 115 |
119 | KANSAS | 1 | 11 | 116 | 118 | 123 | 122 |
120 | BOWLING GREEN | 2 | 10 | 117 | 121 | 118 | 116 |
121 | COASTAL CAROLINA | 3 | 9 | 120 | 120 | 120 | 123 |
122 | HAWAII | 3 | 9 | 123 | 116 | 122 | 120 |
123 | GEORGIA SOUTHERN | 2 | 10 | 121 | 123 | 121 | 117 |
124 | KENT ST | 2 | 10 | 126 | 124 | 124 | 127 |
125 | SAN JOSE ST | 2 | 11 | 127 | 125 | 125 | 125 |
126 | RICE | 1 | 11 | 124 | 128 | 127 | 124 |
127 | CHARLOTTE | 1 | 11 | 125 | 129 | 128 | 129 |
128 | TEXAS ST | 2 | 10 | 128 | 127 | 126 | 126 |
129 | BALL ST | 2 | 10 | 130 | 126 | 129 | 128 |
130 | UTEP | 0 | 12 | 129 | 130 | 130 | 130 |
The Massey Composite rankings are as of Thursday afternoon, January 11 |
Final vs Vegas Point Spread
Vs The Vegas Spread | Won | Lost | Tied | Pct. |
---|---|---|---|---|
Vs The Vegas Spread | Won | Lost | Tied | Pct. |
Week | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 |
Previous | 379 | 370 | 16 | .506 |
Total | 380 | 370 | 16 | .507 |
Straight Up | Won | Lost | Pct | |
Week | 1 | 0 | 1.000 | |
Previous | 564 | 210 | .729 | |
Total | 565 | 210 | .729 | |
Boston College Games | Won | Lost | Pct | |
vs Spread | 9 | 4 | .692 | |
Straight Up | 10 | 3 | .769 |