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The Book 2017: Pre-Season Rankings

Let the games begin

NCAA Football: ACC Football Kickoff
The Dazzler looks to move up The Book poll in 2017
Jeremy Brevard-USA TODAY Sports

Welcome to the 2017 college football season and week 1 of The Book. Over the past nearly 30 years, I have been playing around with using various computer rankings systems to create one I loosely call my own. I have used it both to rank teams as well as compete vs the Vegas spread.

Over the past couple of years, I switched the methodology a bit, adding bonus points to the mix to capture the strength of record component, but what I have figured out is that the power rankings/strength of record has to be evaluated and calculated on its own. So during the off season, I adjusted once again and low and behold seem to have something more improved.

Now to look at this historically, the Book in its various methods has produced somewhere between 48% and 53% winners, dependent on the year. That isn’t as bad as one might think.

The Prediction Tracker, is a site that monitors 60 plus computer polls for success both picking winners straight up as well as against the spread. Interesting to note that even the best are 53-55% against the spread and 70-73% straight up. So if our method even reaches 46% winners we make it on to the chart and anything above 50% should be looked at quite favorably.

With the changes I made in the off season and applying them to the 2014, 2015 and 2016 seasons, this method produced .522 (2014), .503 (2015) and .551 (2016) winners vs Vegas and .734 (2014), .768 (2015) and .728 (2016) winner straight up. Very comparable vs the best the computer systems did.

For 2017 we will use the same format to rank teams as we did last season. Week 1 will show our opening power rankings poll, using the Phil Steele plus/minus power rankings and now custom adjustments for home field advantage and weekly adjustment points.

After week 1, we will show rankings based on strength of record, so who a team has played to date and how they have done, along with the the power ranking, a combination ranking taking into account power, strength of record and strength of opponents, the Sagarin ranking and Massey composite rankings.

This season, like so many in recent years, starts with the Alabama Crimson Tide on top. Ohio State, Florida State and Oklahoma make the way too early top four for the College Football Playoff.

Boston College pulls in at number 70 in the country pre-season, ahead of only Virginia in the ACC, but for those of you who have gotten Phil Steele’s pre-season magazine, realize that he has the Eagles targeted for a bowl game this season.

Unfortunately, most of the pre-season human and computer polls don’t believe in this year’s Eagles squad. The Stassen consensus pre-season magazine site, which tracks all the scribe’s prognostications pick BC to finish last in the ACC Atlantic, with no one picking the Eagles above fifth.

There are a few games this week, so the spreads are down below for those in what we will refer to as Week A.

Enjoy the games and Go Eagles!

Note: the Massey composite rankings are as of Sunday evening, August 20. More have since been added, so below may be slightly different than the site has now.

The Book 2017 Power Rankings - Week A

RANK TEAM WON LOST SOR POWER COMBINED MASSEY SAGARIN
RANK TEAM WON LOST SOR POWER COMBINED MASSEY SAGARIN
1 ALABAMA 0 0 - 1 - 1 1
2 OHIO ST 0 0 - 2 - 3 2
3 FLORIDA ST 0 0 - 3 - 5 3
4 OKLAHOMA 0 0 - 4 - 4 4
5 SO CALIFORNIA 0 0 - 5 - 7 12
6 CLEMSON 0 0 - 6 - 2 6
7 PENN ST 0 0 - 7 - 11 10
8 WASHINGTON 0 0 - 8 - 6 8
9 WISCONSIN 0 0 - 9 - 8 9
10 LOUISIANA ST 0 0 - 10 - 10 7
11 AUBURN 0 0 - 11 - 13 5
12 MICHIGAN 0 0 - 12 - 9 13
13 OKLAHOMA ST 0 0 - 13 - 15 11
14 STANFORD 0 0 - 14 - 12 14
15 FLORIDA 0 0 - 15 - 14 23
16 GEORGIA 0 0 - 16 - 21 18
17 LOUISVILLE 0 0 - 17 - 16 19
18 MIAMI FL 0 0 - 18 - 17 15
19 KANSAS ST 0 0 - 19 - 23 20
20 TEXAS 0 0 - 20 - 50 28
21 TENNESSEE 0 0 - 21 - 19 30
22 VIRGINIA TECH 0 0 - 22 - 18 22
23 OREGON 0 0 - 23 - 52 35
24 WASHINGTON ST 0 0 - 24 - 22 27
25 TCU 0 0 - 25 - 34 26
26 NOTRE DAME 0 0 - 26 - 40 17
27 SOUTH FLORIDA 0 0 - 27 - 25 50
28 UCLA 0 0 - 28 - 53 34
29 TEXAS A&M 0 0 - 29 - 20 21
30 COLORADO 0 0 - 30 - 26 47
31 PITTSBURGH 0 0 - 31 - 32 39
32 (tie) MISSISSIPPI 0 0 - 32 (tie) - 43 43
32 (tie) N CAROLINA ST 0 0 - 32 (tie) - 30 38
34 N CAROLINA 0 0 - 34 - 24 41
35 WEST VIRGINIA 0 0 - 35 - 29 37
36 BAYLOR 0 0 - 36 - 44 42
37 UTAH 0 0 - 37 - 28 24
38 GEORGIA TECH 0 0 - 38 - 27 29
39 NORTHWESTERN 0 0 - 39 - 38 25
40 NEBRASKA 0 0 - 40 - 39 36
41 ARKANSAS 0 0 - 41 - 42 16
42 KENTUCKY 0 0 - 42 - 57 60
43 MISSISSIPPI ST 0 0 - 43 - 49 31
44 S CAROLINA 0 0 - 44 - 59 49
45 IOWA 0 0 - 45 - 31 44
46 BRIGHAM YOUNG 0 0 - 46 - 37 48
47 ARIZONA ST 0 0 - 47 - 67 51
48 HOUSTON 0 0 - 48 - 36 46
49 MINNESOTA 0 0 - 49 - 46 56
50 MEMPHIS 0 0 - 50 - 47 32
51 BOISE ST 0 0 - 51 - 41 40
52 TEXAS TECH 0 0 - 52 - 62 59
53 OREGON ST 0 0 - 53 - 73 54
54 MICHIGAN ST 0 0 - 54 - 68 33
55 VANDERBILT 0 0 - 55 - 58 68
56 MISSOURI 0 0 - 56 - 70 72
57 SAN DIEGO ST 0 0 - 57 - 45 55
58 DUKE 0 0 - 58 - 72 53
59 WAKE FOREST 0 0 - 59 - 63 57
60 ARIZONA 0 0 - 60 - 79 69
61 SYRACUSE 0 0 - 61 - 74 70
62 COLORADO ST 0 0 - 62 - 64 66
63 INDIANA 0 0 - 63 - 61 58
64 IOWA ST 0 0 - 64 - 81 74
65 CALIFORNIA 0 0 - 65 - 60 65
66 NAVY 0 0 - 66 - 56 61
67 W MICHIGAN 0 0 - 67 - 33 62
68 TULSA 0 0 - 68 - 55 76
69 W KENTUCKY 0 0 - 69 - 35 52
70 BOSTON COLLEGE 0 0 - 70 - 71 85
71 MARYLAND 0 0 - 71 - 77 75
72 TOLEDO 0 0 - 72 - 54 45
73 APPALACHIAN ST 0 0 - 73 - 48 64
74 TEMPLE 0 0 - 74 - 51 63
75 C FLORIDA 0 0 - 75 - 78 67
76 VIRGINIA 0 0 - 76 - 90 71
77 WYOMING 0 0 - 77 - 76 79
78 LOUISIANA TECH 0 0 - 78 - 66 73
79 SO METHODIST 0 0 - 79 - 89 92
80 ARMY 0 0 - 80 - 82 90
81 CINCINNATI 0 0 - 81 - 94 80
82 TROY 0 0 - 82 - 65 81
83 ILLINOIS 0 0 - 83 - 97 84
84 AIR FORCE 0 0 - 84 - 69 78
85 NEW MEXICO 0 0 - 85 - 83 91
86 M TENNESSEE 0 0 - 86 - 85 82
87 (tie) MIAMI OH 0 0 - 87 (tie) - 95 107
87 (tie) PURDUE 0 0 - 87 (tie) - 103 88
89 ARKANSAS ST 0 0 - 89 - 75 83
90 RUTGERS 0 0 - 90 - 108 108
91 TULANE 0 0 - 91 - 100 111
92 OLD DOMINION 0 0 - 92 - 80 95
93 (tie) OHIO 0 0 - 93 (tie) - 84 87
93 (tie) TEXAS SAN ANT 0 0 - 93 (tie) - 93 93
95 SO MISSISSIPPI 0 0 - 95 - 87 96
96 KANSAS 0 0 - 96 - 114 98
97 UTAH ST 0 0 - 97 - 96 94
98 MARSHALL 0 0 - 98 - 109 102
99 FLORIDA ATL 0 0 - 99 - 121 117
100 C MICHIGAN 0 0 - 100 - 91 104
101 NO ILLINOIS 0 0 - 101 - 86 77
102 EAST CAROLINA 0 0 - 102 - 101 86
103 HAWAII 0 0 - 103 - 102 89
104 (tie) E MICHIGAN 0 0 - 104 (tie) - 99 106
104 (tie) NEVADA 0 0 - 104 (tie) - 106 105
106 LA LAFAYETTE 0 0 - 106 - 98 99
107 UNLV 0 0 - 107 - 113 101
108 SAN JOSE ST 0 0 - 108 - 110 113
109 AKRON 0 0 - 109 - 104 112
110 GEORGIA SO 0 0 - 110 - 92 103
111 IDAHO 0 0 - 111 - 88 110
112 BALL ST 0 0 - 112 - 111 118
113 BOWLING GREEN 0 0 - 113 - 105 100
114 FLORIDA INTL 0 0 - 114 - 117 126
115 FRESNO ST 0 0 - 115 - 126 122
116 NORTH TEXAS 0 0 - 116 - 119 114
117 RICE 0 0 - 117 - 124 115
118 S ALABAMA 0 0 - 118 - 107 97
119 CONNECTICUT 0 0 - 119 - 116 109
120 KENT ST 0 0 - 120 - 118 124
121 MASSACHUSETTS 0 0 - 121 - 123 121
122 NEW MEXICO ST 0 0 - 122 - 125 127
123 BUFFALO 0 0 - 123 - 129 119
124 LA MONROE 0 0 - 124 - 120 120
125 GEORGIA ST 0 0 - 125 - 115 116
126 C CAROLINA 0 0 - 126 - 112 128
127 AL BIRMINGHAM 0 0 - 127 - 122 125
128 TEXAS EL PASO 0 0 - 128 - 127 123
129 CHARLOTTE 0 0 - 129 - 128 130
130 TEXAS ST 0 0 - 130 - 130 129

Final vs Vegas Point Spread

Vs The Vegas Spread Won Lost Tied Pct.
Vs The Vegas Spread Won Lost Tied Pct.
Week 1 0 0 1.000
Previous 379 370 16 .506
Total 380 370 16 .507
Straight Up Won Lost Pct
Week 1 0 1.000
Previous 564 210 .729
Total 565 210 .729
Boston College Games Won Lost Pct
vs Spread 9 4 .692
Straight Up 10 3 .769