Welcome to the 2017 college football season and week 1 of The Book. Over the past nearly 30 years, I have been playing around with using various computer rankings systems to create one I loosely call my own. I have used it both to rank teams as well as compete vs the Vegas spread.
Over the past couple of years, I switched the methodology a bit, adding bonus points to the mix to capture the strength of record component, but what I have figured out is that the power rankings/strength of record has to be evaluated and calculated on its own. So during the off season, I adjusted once again and low and behold seem to have something more improved.
Now to look at this historically, the Book in its various methods has produced somewhere between 48% and 53% winners, dependent on the year. That isn’t as bad as one might think.
The Prediction Tracker, is a site that monitors 60 plus computer polls for success both picking winners straight up as well as against the spread. Interesting to note that even the best are 53-55% against the spread and 70-73% straight up. So if our method even reaches 46% winners we make it on to the chart and anything above 50% should be looked at quite favorably.
With the changes I made in the off season and applying them to the 2014, 2015 and 2016 seasons, this method produced .522 (2014), .503 (2015) and .551 (2016) winners vs Vegas and .734 (2014), .768 (2015) and .728 (2016) winner straight up. Very comparable vs the best the computer systems did.
For 2017 we will use the same format to rank teams as we did last season. Week 1 will show our opening power rankings poll, using the Phil Steele plus/minus power rankings and now custom adjustments for home field advantage and weekly adjustment points.
After week 1, we will show rankings based on strength of record, so who a team has played to date and how they have done, along with the the power ranking, a combination ranking taking into account power, strength of record and strength of opponents, the Sagarin ranking and Massey composite rankings.
This season, like so many in recent years, starts with the Alabama Crimson Tide on top. Ohio State, Florida State and Oklahoma make the way too early top four for the College Football Playoff.
Boston College pulls in at number 70 in the country pre-season, ahead of only Virginia in the ACC, but for those of you who have gotten Phil Steele’s pre-season magazine, realize that he has the Eagles targeted for a bowl game this season.
Unfortunately, most of the pre-season human and computer polls don’t believe in this year’s Eagles squad. The Stassen consensus pre-season magazine site, which tracks all the scribe’s prognostications pick BC to finish last in the ACC Atlantic, with no one picking the Eagles above fifth.
There are a few games this week, so the spreads are down below for those in what we will refer to as Week A.
Enjoy the games and Go Eagles!
Note: the Massey composite rankings are as of Sunday evening, August 20. More have since been added, so below may be slightly different than the site has now.
The Book 2017 Power Rankings - Week A
RANK | TEAM | WON | LOST | SOR | POWER | COMBINED | MASSEY | SAGARIN |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
RANK | TEAM | WON | LOST | SOR | POWER | COMBINED | MASSEY | SAGARIN |
1 | ALABAMA | 0 | 0 | - | 1 | - | 1 | 1 |
2 | OHIO ST | 0 | 0 | - | 2 | - | 3 | 2 |
3 | FLORIDA ST | 0 | 0 | - | 3 | - | 5 | 3 |
4 | OKLAHOMA | 0 | 0 | - | 4 | - | 4 | 4 |
5 | SO CALIFORNIA | 0 | 0 | - | 5 | - | 7 | 12 |
6 | CLEMSON | 0 | 0 | - | 6 | - | 2 | 6 |
7 | PENN ST | 0 | 0 | - | 7 | - | 11 | 10 |
8 | WASHINGTON | 0 | 0 | - | 8 | - | 6 | 8 |
9 | WISCONSIN | 0 | 0 | - | 9 | - | 8 | 9 |
10 | LOUISIANA ST | 0 | 0 | - | 10 | - | 10 | 7 |
11 | AUBURN | 0 | 0 | - | 11 | - | 13 | 5 |
12 | MICHIGAN | 0 | 0 | - | 12 | - | 9 | 13 |
13 | OKLAHOMA ST | 0 | 0 | - | 13 | - | 15 | 11 |
14 | STANFORD | 0 | 0 | - | 14 | - | 12 | 14 |
15 | FLORIDA | 0 | 0 | - | 15 | - | 14 | 23 |
16 | GEORGIA | 0 | 0 | - | 16 | - | 21 | 18 |
17 | LOUISVILLE | 0 | 0 | - | 17 | - | 16 | 19 |
18 | MIAMI FL | 0 | 0 | - | 18 | - | 17 | 15 |
19 | KANSAS ST | 0 | 0 | - | 19 | - | 23 | 20 |
20 | TEXAS | 0 | 0 | - | 20 | - | 50 | 28 |
21 | TENNESSEE | 0 | 0 | - | 21 | - | 19 | 30 |
22 | VIRGINIA TECH | 0 | 0 | - | 22 | - | 18 | 22 |
23 | OREGON | 0 | 0 | - | 23 | - | 52 | 35 |
24 | WASHINGTON ST | 0 | 0 | - | 24 | - | 22 | 27 |
25 | TCU | 0 | 0 | - | 25 | - | 34 | 26 |
26 | NOTRE DAME | 0 | 0 | - | 26 | - | 40 | 17 |
27 | SOUTH FLORIDA | 0 | 0 | - | 27 | - | 25 | 50 |
28 | UCLA | 0 | 0 | - | 28 | - | 53 | 34 |
29 | TEXAS A&M | 0 | 0 | - | 29 | - | 20 | 21 |
30 | COLORADO | 0 | 0 | - | 30 | - | 26 | 47 |
31 | PITTSBURGH | 0 | 0 | - | 31 | - | 32 | 39 |
32 (tie) | MISSISSIPPI | 0 | 0 | - | 32 (tie) | - | 43 | 43 |
32 (tie) | N CAROLINA ST | 0 | 0 | - | 32 (tie) | - | 30 | 38 |
34 | N CAROLINA | 0 | 0 | - | 34 | - | 24 | 41 |
35 | WEST VIRGINIA | 0 | 0 | - | 35 | - | 29 | 37 |
36 | BAYLOR | 0 | 0 | - | 36 | - | 44 | 42 |
37 | UTAH | 0 | 0 | - | 37 | - | 28 | 24 |
38 | GEORGIA TECH | 0 | 0 | - | 38 | - | 27 | 29 |
39 | NORTHWESTERN | 0 | 0 | - | 39 | - | 38 | 25 |
40 | NEBRASKA | 0 | 0 | - | 40 | - | 39 | 36 |
41 | ARKANSAS | 0 | 0 | - | 41 | - | 42 | 16 |
42 | KENTUCKY | 0 | 0 | - | 42 | - | 57 | 60 |
43 | MISSISSIPPI ST | 0 | 0 | - | 43 | - | 49 | 31 |
44 | S CAROLINA | 0 | 0 | - | 44 | - | 59 | 49 |
45 | IOWA | 0 | 0 | - | 45 | - | 31 | 44 |
46 | BRIGHAM YOUNG | 0 | 0 | - | 46 | - | 37 | 48 |
47 | ARIZONA ST | 0 | 0 | - | 47 | - | 67 | 51 |
48 | HOUSTON | 0 | 0 | - | 48 | - | 36 | 46 |
49 | MINNESOTA | 0 | 0 | - | 49 | - | 46 | 56 |
50 | MEMPHIS | 0 | 0 | - | 50 | - | 47 | 32 |
51 | BOISE ST | 0 | 0 | - | 51 | - | 41 | 40 |
52 | TEXAS TECH | 0 | 0 | - | 52 | - | 62 | 59 |
53 | OREGON ST | 0 | 0 | - | 53 | - | 73 | 54 |
54 | MICHIGAN ST | 0 | 0 | - | 54 | - | 68 | 33 |
55 | VANDERBILT | 0 | 0 | - | 55 | - | 58 | 68 |
56 | MISSOURI | 0 | 0 | - | 56 | - | 70 | 72 |
57 | SAN DIEGO ST | 0 | 0 | - | 57 | - | 45 | 55 |
58 | DUKE | 0 | 0 | - | 58 | - | 72 | 53 |
59 | WAKE FOREST | 0 | 0 | - | 59 | - | 63 | 57 |
60 | ARIZONA | 0 | 0 | - | 60 | - | 79 | 69 |
61 | SYRACUSE | 0 | 0 | - | 61 | - | 74 | 70 |
62 | COLORADO ST | 0 | 0 | - | 62 | - | 64 | 66 |
63 | INDIANA | 0 | 0 | - | 63 | - | 61 | 58 |
64 | IOWA ST | 0 | 0 | - | 64 | - | 81 | 74 |
65 | CALIFORNIA | 0 | 0 | - | 65 | - | 60 | 65 |
66 | NAVY | 0 | 0 | - | 66 | - | 56 | 61 |
67 | W MICHIGAN | 0 | 0 | - | 67 | - | 33 | 62 |
68 | TULSA | 0 | 0 | - | 68 | - | 55 | 76 |
69 | W KENTUCKY | 0 | 0 | - | 69 | - | 35 | 52 |
70 | BOSTON COLLEGE | 0 | 0 | - | 70 | - | 71 | 85 |
71 | MARYLAND | 0 | 0 | - | 71 | - | 77 | 75 |
72 | TOLEDO | 0 | 0 | - | 72 | - | 54 | 45 |
73 | APPALACHIAN ST | 0 | 0 | - | 73 | - | 48 | 64 |
74 | TEMPLE | 0 | 0 | - | 74 | - | 51 | 63 |
75 | C FLORIDA | 0 | 0 | - | 75 | - | 78 | 67 |
76 | VIRGINIA | 0 | 0 | - | 76 | - | 90 | 71 |
77 | WYOMING | 0 | 0 | - | 77 | - | 76 | 79 |
78 | LOUISIANA TECH | 0 | 0 | - | 78 | - | 66 | 73 |
79 | SO METHODIST | 0 | 0 | - | 79 | - | 89 | 92 |
80 | ARMY | 0 | 0 | - | 80 | - | 82 | 90 |
81 | CINCINNATI | 0 | 0 | - | 81 | - | 94 | 80 |
82 | TROY | 0 | 0 | - | 82 | - | 65 | 81 |
83 | ILLINOIS | 0 | 0 | - | 83 | - | 97 | 84 |
84 | AIR FORCE | 0 | 0 | - | 84 | - | 69 | 78 |
85 | NEW MEXICO | 0 | 0 | - | 85 | - | 83 | 91 |
86 | M TENNESSEE | 0 | 0 | - | 86 | - | 85 | 82 |
87 (tie) | MIAMI OH | 0 | 0 | - | 87 (tie) | - | 95 | 107 |
87 (tie) | PURDUE | 0 | 0 | - | 87 (tie) | - | 103 | 88 |
89 | ARKANSAS ST | 0 | 0 | - | 89 | - | 75 | 83 |
90 | RUTGERS | 0 | 0 | - | 90 | - | 108 | 108 |
91 | TULANE | 0 | 0 | - | 91 | - | 100 | 111 |
92 | OLD DOMINION | 0 | 0 | - | 92 | - | 80 | 95 |
93 (tie) | OHIO | 0 | 0 | - | 93 (tie) | - | 84 | 87 |
93 (tie) | TEXAS SAN ANT | 0 | 0 | - | 93 (tie) | - | 93 | 93 |
95 | SO MISSISSIPPI | 0 | 0 | - | 95 | - | 87 | 96 |
96 | KANSAS | 0 | 0 | - | 96 | - | 114 | 98 |
97 | UTAH ST | 0 | 0 | - | 97 | - | 96 | 94 |
98 | MARSHALL | 0 | 0 | - | 98 | - | 109 | 102 |
99 | FLORIDA ATL | 0 | 0 | - | 99 | - | 121 | 117 |
100 | C MICHIGAN | 0 | 0 | - | 100 | - | 91 | 104 |
101 | NO ILLINOIS | 0 | 0 | - | 101 | - | 86 | 77 |
102 | EAST CAROLINA | 0 | 0 | - | 102 | - | 101 | 86 |
103 | HAWAII | 0 | 0 | - | 103 | - | 102 | 89 |
104 (tie) | E MICHIGAN | 0 | 0 | - | 104 (tie) | - | 99 | 106 |
104 (tie) | NEVADA | 0 | 0 | - | 104 (tie) | - | 106 | 105 |
106 | LA LAFAYETTE | 0 | 0 | - | 106 | - | 98 | 99 |
107 | UNLV | 0 | 0 | - | 107 | - | 113 | 101 |
108 | SAN JOSE ST | 0 | 0 | - | 108 | - | 110 | 113 |
109 | AKRON | 0 | 0 | - | 109 | - | 104 | 112 |
110 | GEORGIA SO | 0 | 0 | - | 110 | - | 92 | 103 |
111 | IDAHO | 0 | 0 | - | 111 | - | 88 | 110 |
112 | BALL ST | 0 | 0 | - | 112 | - | 111 | 118 |
113 | BOWLING GREEN | 0 | 0 | - | 113 | - | 105 | 100 |
114 | FLORIDA INTL | 0 | 0 | - | 114 | - | 117 | 126 |
115 | FRESNO ST | 0 | 0 | - | 115 | - | 126 | 122 |
116 | NORTH TEXAS | 0 | 0 | - | 116 | - | 119 | 114 |
117 | RICE | 0 | 0 | - | 117 | - | 124 | 115 |
118 | S ALABAMA | 0 | 0 | - | 118 | - | 107 | 97 |
119 | CONNECTICUT | 0 | 0 | - | 119 | - | 116 | 109 |
120 | KENT ST | 0 | 0 | - | 120 | - | 118 | 124 |
121 | MASSACHUSETTS | 0 | 0 | - | 121 | - | 123 | 121 |
122 | NEW MEXICO ST | 0 | 0 | - | 122 | - | 125 | 127 |
123 | BUFFALO | 0 | 0 | - | 123 | - | 129 | 119 |
124 | LA MONROE | 0 | 0 | - | 124 | - | 120 | 120 |
125 | GEORGIA ST | 0 | 0 | - | 125 | - | 115 | 116 |
126 | C CAROLINA | 0 | 0 | - | 126 | - | 112 | 128 |
127 | AL BIRMINGHAM | 0 | 0 | - | 127 | - | 122 | 125 |
128 | TEXAS EL PASO | 0 | 0 | - | 128 | - | 127 | 123 |
129 | CHARLOTTE | 0 | 0 | - | 129 | - | 128 | 130 |
130 | TEXAS ST | 0 | 0 | - | 130 | - | 130 | 129 |
Final vs Vegas Point Spread
Vs The Vegas Spread | Won | Lost | Tied | Pct. |
---|---|---|---|---|
Vs The Vegas Spread | Won | Lost | Tied | Pct. |
Week | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 |
Previous | 379 | 370 | 16 | .506 |
Total | 380 | 370 | 16 | .507 |
Straight Up | Won | Lost | Pct | |
Week | 1 | 0 | 1.000 | |
Previous | 564 | 210 | .729 | |
Total | 565 | 210 | .729 | |
Boston College Games | Won | Lost | Pct | |
vs Spread | 9 | 4 | .692 | |
Straight Up | 10 | 3 | .769 |