College Hockey News released their pairwise probability matrix for 2017 today, which is a great tool to use during the remaining weeks of hockey season. The matrix tells you the probability that each team will make the NCAA Tournament this season based on a number of simulations.
Boston College qualified for the tournament in 36% of the simulations that CHN ran. The Eagles’ likelihood of making the tournament could change as BC has two important games against UMass Lowell this week. UML qualified for the tournament in 90% of the simulations that were run.
As it stands, 3 of last year’s Frozen Four teams likely won’t make the tournament. Boston College, as noted above, qualified in 36% of simulations, while North Dakota qualified 37% of the time. Quinnipiac, who knocked BC out of the Frozen Four last year, qualified in only 5% of simulations. Denver is the only team from the 2016 Frozen Four that will certainly be in the NCAA Tournament this year. They are one of 4 teams that qualified for the tournament in all simulations - the others are Harvard, Minnesota, and Minnesota Duluth.