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The challenges of close spreads keep haunting us as The Book looks like a Las Vegas savant when creating spreads, but has struggled in the past several weeks to beat the wise guys.
Last week marked the third consecutive week below .500 and the worst week since week one of the season, at four games under, still leaving us on the right side of that mark year to date, but wondering if our own method of doing this is now actually too good.
According to Prediction Tracker, this would put us 21st against the point spread among the 61 computer polls who would participate but still 7th in picking winners straight up.
This week is another one of those that makes you shake your head, with 8 games where The Book and Vegas lines are within 1⁄2 point of each other and another 6 within 1 point, that means that 14 of the 59 games are essentially toss ups vs the line.
A tough way to make a living..glad I don’t do it this way for sure.
One of the games that fits this close tie is BC - NC State where the Wolfpack opened a 3.5 point favorites, with The Book coming down on the Eagles side, ever so slightly, favoring the Pack by 3.3.
In terms of national rankings, Alabama continues to lead our combined poll, followed by Georgia with now Oklahoma and Notre Dame benefiting from their wins last week to slide into the three and four slots.
The CFP committee didn’t change their tune at all from a week ago in terms of their playoff teams, with Georgia, Alabama, Notre Dame and Clemson staying firm. There may well be change in the air this week though with Georgia traveling to #10 (CFP) Auburn and Notre Dame at #7 (CFP) Miami.
The Book likes the Tigers and Irish in those two contests.
Finally, where is Boston College in all of this?
The Eagles are pretty highly thought of across the board in terms of rankings. #38 in our combined rating, which is sixth in the ACC. They are #46 in the power ratings, #33 in strength of record, #31 with the Massey composite and #36 with Jeff Sagarin.
The Massey as you know is a composite of over 100 different polls that are submitted at different times during the week. As of this writing 93 of those were up and 9 of them have BC in their top 25, with the highest at #16.
Now it is unlikely that any of the human polls would have BC reach that level even with a win this Saturday, but it is possible that even more of the computer variety would join in.
How rare is that? Well BC hasn’t made an appearance in The Book Top 25 since November 29, 2008 when the Eagles checked in at #22 just prior to taking on Virginia Tech in the 2008 ACC Championship Game.
Enjoy the games and Go Eagles!
Final Combined Rankings
RANK | TEAM | WON | LOST | POWER | SOR | MASSEY | SAGARIN |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
RANK | TEAM | WON | LOST | POWER | SOR | MASSEY | SAGARIN |
1 | ALABAMA | 13 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
2 | GEORGIA | 13 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
3 | OHIO ST | 12 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 3 | 2 |
4 | OKLAHOMA | 12 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 7 | 6 |
5 | WISCONSIN | 13 | 1 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 7 |
6 | CLEMSON | 12 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
7 | PENN ST | 11 | 2 | 6 | 9 | 6 | 4 |
8 | USC | 11 | 3 | 15 | 8 | 14 | 15 |
9 | WASHINGTON | 10 | 3 | 8 | 16 | 12 | 9 |
10 | CENTRAL FLORIDA | 13 | 0 | 18 | 7 | 8 | 13 |
11 | NOTRE DAME | 10 | 3 | 13 | 10 | 9 | 10 |
12 | TCU | 11 | 3 | 12 | 11 | 11 | 12 |
13 | AUBURN | 10 | 4 | 9 | 15 | 10 | 8 |
14 | OKLAHOMA ST | 10 | 3 | 10 | 13 | 16 | 11 |
15 | MICHIGAN ST | 10 | 3 | 23 | 12 | 15 | 23 |
16 | NORTHWESTERN | 10 | 3 | 20 | 18 | 17 | 20 |
17 | MIAMI FL | 10 | 3 | 29 | 14 | 13 | 16 |
18 | LSU | 9 | 4 | 11 | 25 | 22 | 19 |
19 | NORTH CAROLINA ST | 9 | 4 | 19 | 19 | 19 | 22 |
20 | STANFORD | 9 | 5 | 14 | 29 | 20 | 14 |
21 | MEMPHIS | 10 | 3 | 28 | 22 | 24 | 31 |
22 | BOISE ST | 11 | 3 | 39 | 17 | 25 | 32 |
23 | VIRGINIA TECH | 9 | 4 | 27 | 24 | 23 | 21 |
24 | IOWA ST | 8 | 5 | 22 | 32 | 27 | 25 |
25 | MISSISSIPPI ST | 9 | 4 | 30 | 23 | 21 | 17 |
26 | WASHINGTON ST | 9 | 4 | 36 | 20 | 33 | 37 |
27 | SOUTH CAROLINA | 9 | 4 | 37 | 21 | 30 | 33 |
28 | MICHIGAN | 8 | 5 | 25 | 37 | 26 | 26 |
29 | KANSAS ST | 8 | 5 | 26 | 38 | 37 | 30 |
30 | TEXAS | 7 | 6 | 17 | 42 | 36 | 27 |
31 | FLORIDA ATLANTIC | 11 | 3 | 35 | 27 | 32 | 45 |
32 | IOWA | 8 | 5 | 34 | 30 | 18 | 18 |
33 | WAKE FOREST | 8 | 5 | 31 | 36 | 28 | 29 |
34 | LOUISVILLE | 8 | 5 | 24 | 39 | 31 | 24 |
35 | FLORIDA ST | 7 | 6 | 16 | 46 | 35 | 28 |
36 | SOUTH FLORIDA | 10 | 2 | 44 | 28 | 29 | 40 |
37 | UTAH | 7 | 6 | 21 | 49 | 47 | 34 |
38 | OREGON | 7 | 6 | 33 | 43 | 48 | 39 |
39 | SAN DIEGO ST | 10 | 3 | 53 | 31 | 41 | 57 |
40 | TOLEDO | 11 | 3 | 58 | 26 | 43 | 65 |
41 | DUKE | 7 | 6 | 32 | 48 | 44 | 38 |
42 | BOSTON COLLEGE | 7 | 6 | 40 | 41 | 34 | 35 |
43 | TROY | 11 | 2 | 59 | 33 | 42 | 63 |
44 | FRESNO ST | 10 | 4 | 57 | 35 | 38 | 51 |
45 | ARIZONA ST | 7 | 6 | 49 | 40 | 49 | 43 |
46 | PURDUE | 7 | 6 | 45 | 44 | 39 | 36 |
47 | ARMY | 10 | 3 | 62 | 34 | 40 | 58 |
48 | TEXAS A&M | 7 | 6 | 42 | 47 | 45 | 42 |
49 | MISSOURI | 7 | 6 | 38 | 59 | 53 | 49 |
50 | WEST VIRGINIA | 7 | 6 | 47 | 45 | 51 | 47 |
51 | ARIZONA | 7 | 6 | 46 | 53 | 58 | 50 |
52 | TEXAS TECH | 6 | 7 | 48 | 56 | 54 | 46 |
53 | UCLA | 6 | 7 | 54 | 50 | 59 | 54 |
54 | GEORGIA TECH | 5 | 6 | 43 | 66 | 50 | 41 |
55 | NAVY | 7 | 6 | 55 | 54 | 46 | 53 |
56 | PITTSBURGH | 5 | 7 | 41 | 72 | 62 | 44 |
57 | KENTUCKY | 7 | 6 | 63 | 51 | 56 | 62 |
58 | MISSISSIPPI | 6 | 6 | 52 | 67 | 60 | 55 |
59 | CALIFORNIA | 5 | 7 | 50 | 69 | 70 | 52 |
60 | HOUSTON | 7 | 5 | 61 | 57 | 52 | 59 |
61 | APPALACHIAN ST | 9 | 4 | 65 | 55 | 55 | 56 |
62 | OHIO | 9 | 4 | 67 | 58 | 57 | 61 |
63 | INDIANA | 5 | 7 | 51 | 84 | 61 | 48 |
64 | TEMPLE | 7 | 6 | 66 | 68 | 63 | 67 |
65 | WYOMING | 8 | 5 | 69 | 64 | 67 | 70 |
66 | FLORIDA | 4 | 7 | 56 | 81 | 71 | 64 |
67 | NORTHERN ILLINOIS | 8 | 5 | 75 | 60 | 64 | 73 |
68 | MARSHALL | 8 | 5 | 78 | 61 | 68 | 79 |
69 | VIRGINIA | 6 | 7 | 77 | 65 | 72 | 76 |
70 | COLORADO | 5 | 7 | 64 | 83 | 85 | 66 |
71 | MINNESOTA | 5 | 7 | 71 | 76 | 69 | 60 |
72 | COLORADO ST | 7 | 6 | 73 | 75 | 79 | 78 |
73 | CENTRAL MICHIGAN | 8 | 5 | 90 | 62 | 75 | 91 |
74 | NORTH TEXAS | 9 | 5 | 101 | 52 | 65 | 93 |
75 | SYRACUSE | 4 | 8 | 70 | 86 | 74 | 69 |
76 | SOUTHERN MISS | 8 | 5 | 82 | 70 | 82 | 94 |
77 | SMU | 7 | 6 | 88 | 71 | 66 | 80 |
78 | NEBRASKA | 4 | 8 | 72 | 87 | 76 | 72 |
79 | VANDERBILT | 5 | 7 | 76 | 85 | 78 | 77 |
80 | NORTH CAROLINA | 3 | 9 | 60 | 102 | 89 | 68 |
81 | MIDDLE TENNESSEE | 7 | 6 | 87 | 77 | 88 | 92 |
82 | LOUISIANA TECH | 7 | 6 | 85 | 79 | 77 | 75 |
83 | ARKANSAS | 4 | 8 | 74 | 92 | 83 | 71 |
84 | FLORIDA INTL | 8 | 5 | 102 | 63 | 86 | 101 |
85 | MARYLAND | 4 | 8 | 89 | 82 | 73 | 74 |
86 | WESTERN MICHIGAN | 6 | 6 | 79 | 89 | 81 | 81 |
87 | ARKANSAS ST | 7 | 5 | 83 | 88 | 84 | 82 |
88 | TULANE | 5 | 7 | 80 | 93 | 80 | 84 |
89 | UTAH ST | 6 | 7 | 86 | 91 | 93 | 83 |
90 | TENNESSEE | 4 | 8 | 81 | 95 | 92 | 85 |
91 | BUFFALO | 6 | 6 | 93 | 90 | 87 | 87 |
92 | EASTERN MICHIGAN | 5 | 7 | 84 | 98 | 94 | 88 |
93 | TEXAS-SAN ANTONIO | 6 | 5 | 92 | 94 | 96 | 97 |
94 | AIR FORCE | 5 | 7 | 91 | 97 | 91 | 86 |
95 | NEW MEXICO ST | 7 | 6 | 105 | 80 | 98 | 99 |
96 | RUTGERS | 4 | 8 | 94 | 96 | 95 | 90 |
97 | UAB | 8 | 5 | 108 | 73 | 97 | 106 |
98 | AKRON | 7 | 7 | 109 | 74 | 90 | 102 |
99 | BAYLOR | 1 | 11 | 68 | 119 | 106 | 89 |
100 | GEORGIA ST | 7 | 5 | 115 | 78 | 99 | 114 |
101 | MIAMI OH | 5 | 7 | 98 | 104 | 100 | 96 |
102 | BYU | 4 | 9 | 96 | 108 | 103 | 98 |
103 | UNLV | 5 | 7 | 104 | 101 | 102 | 103 |
104 | MASSACHUSETTS | 4 | 8 | 95 | 110 | 105 | 104 |
105 | WESTERN KENTUCKY | 6 | 7 | 107 | 100 | 104 | 110 |
106 | LOUISIANA MONROE | 4 | 8 | 106 | 106 | 110 | 111 |
107 | NEVADA | 3 | 9 | 100 | 114 | 107 | 100 |
108 | ILLINOIS | 2 | 10 | 103 | 112 | 111 | 105 |
109 | CINCINNATI | 4 | 8 | 113 | 105 | 101 | 107 |
110 | TULSA | 2 | 10 | 99 | 117 | 108 | 95 |
111 | OREGON ST | 1 | 11 | 97 | 122 | 119 | 109 |
112 | OLD DOMINION | 5 | 7 | 119 | 99 | 113 | 118 |
113 | IDAHO | 4 | 8 | 110 | 109 | 114 | 112 |
114 | EAST CAROLINA | 3 | 9 | 118 | 107 | 109 | 108 |
115 | LOUISIANA | 5 | 7 | 122 | 103 | 117 | 119 |
116 | SOUTH ALABAMA | 4 | 8 | 112 | 113 | 115 | 121 |
117 | CONNECTICUT | 3 | 9 | 114 | 111 | 112 | 113 |
118 | NEW MEXICO | 3 | 9 | 111 | 115 | 116 | 115 |
119 | KANSAS | 1 | 11 | 116 | 118 | 123 | 122 |
120 | BOWLING GREEN | 2 | 10 | 117 | 121 | 118 | 116 |
121 | COASTAL CAROLINA | 3 | 9 | 120 | 120 | 120 | 123 |
122 | HAWAII | 3 | 9 | 123 | 116 | 122 | 120 |
123 | GEORGIA SOUTHERN | 2 | 10 | 121 | 123 | 121 | 117 |
124 | KENT ST | 2 | 10 | 126 | 124 | 124 | 127 |
125 | SAN JOSE ST | 2 | 11 | 127 | 125 | 125 | 125 |
126 | RICE | 1 | 11 | 124 | 128 | 127 | 124 |
127 | CHARLOTTE | 1 | 11 | 125 | 129 | 128 | 129 |
128 | TEXAS ST | 2 | 10 | 128 | 127 | 126 | 126 |
129 | BALL ST | 2 | 10 | 130 | 126 | 129 | 128 |
130 | UTEP | 0 | 12 | 129 | 130 | 130 | 130 |
The Massey Composite rankings are as of Thursday afternoon, January 11 |
Final ACC Rankings
RANK | TEAM | WON | LOST | POWER | SOR | MASSEY | SAGARIN |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
RANK | TEAM | WON | LOST | POWER | SOR | MASSEY | SAGARIN |
1 | CLEMSON | 12 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
2 | MIAMI FL | 10 | 3 | 29 | 14 | 13 | 16 |
3 | NORTH CAROLINA ST | 9 | 4 | 19 | 19 | 19 | 22 |
4 | VIRGINIA TECH | 9 | 4 | 27 | 24 | 23 | 21 |
5 | WAKE FOREST | 8 | 5 | 31 | 36 | 28 | 29 |
6 | LOUISVILLE | 8 | 5 | 24 | 39 | 31 | 24 |
7 | FLORIDA ST | 7 | 6 | 16 | 46 | 35 | 28 |
8 | DUKE | 7 | 6 | 32 | 48 | 44 | 38 |
9 | BOSTON COLLEGE | 7 | 6 | 40 | 41 | 34 | 35 |
10 | GEORGIA TECH | 5 | 6 | 43 | 66 | 50 | 41 |
11 | PITTSBURGH | 5 | 7 | 41 | 72 | 62 | 44 |
12 | VIRGINIA | 6 | 7 | 77 | 65 | 72 | 76 |
13 | SYRACUSE | 4 | 8 | 70 | 86 | 74 | 69 |
14 | NORTH CAROLINA | 3 | 9 | 60 | 102 | 89 | 68 |
Final vs Vegas Point Spread
Vs The Vegas Spread | Won | Lost | Tied | Pct. |
---|---|---|---|---|
Vs The Vegas Spread | Won | Lost | Tied | Pct. |
Week | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 |
Previous | 379 | 370 | 16 | .506 |
Total | 380 | 370 | 16 | .507 |
Straight Up | Won | Lost | Pct | |
Week | 1 | 0 | 1.000 | |
Previous | 564 | 210 | .729 | |
Total | 565 | 210 | .729 | |
Boston College Games | Won | Lost | Pct | |
vs Spread | 9 | 4 | .692 | |
Straight Up | 10 | 3 | .769 |