Last Week: 5-0
Lock of the Week Overall: 9-3
BC (-3.5) at Syracuse
Darius Wade, EJ Perry, Jeff Smith, Dave Shinskie….it doesn’t matter who is starting at QB for the Eagles. The Syracuse defense has allowed an average of 60 points, 730 yards per game and 9.1 yards per play over the last two games. This isn’t just a two game sample size either, bur rather a trend for Syracuse’s defense late in the season. According to @VegasPointBlank in the last three games of last season the ‘Cuse defense allowed 52 points per game, 615 yards per game and 8.6 yards per play. I think there is something to the theory that the ‘Cuse defense wears down late in the year due to the total plays per game generated by the high paced offense.
Missouri (-9) at Arkansas
I’m going against the “sharps” in Vegas on this one. The reason is that I’m just going to keep riding the Tigers who have covered seven straight games. On top of that, Mizzou has scored 45 points or more in the last five games and have held opponents to 21 points or less during that same stretch. If I get beat by “the players playing extra hard for Brett Bielema” in his last game, so be it.
Ohio State at Michigan (+11.5)
Kind of a square play for me here. I just don’t think Jim Harbaugh will let himself get embarrassed at the Big House to Ohio State twice.
Georgia (-11) at Georgia Tech
This series is traditionally a close game and a game that means more to Georgia Tech than Georgia, which makes sense considering that Georgia is much more of a name brand program. This year feels different to me though because the game means so much to Georgia. There is no lock that the Bulldogs make the playoffs if they lose here to Georgia Tech and then win next week in the SEC Championship, especially if that win comes over Auburn. Georgia can’t afford to lose this and I think it brings the “A Game” for this one. Give me Georgia and its 6th ranked rushing defense in the nation against Georgia Tech’s triple option.
Lock of the Week
Clemson at South Carolina (+14)
It’s always a little bit of a sick puppy special going against Clemson in the lock of the week.
South Carolina has been kind to me throughout the year even back to the beginning of the season when it beat NC State straight up. I like the South Carolina defense and think it will keep the scoring down. On offense, South Carolina is not dynamic but it doesn’t turn the ball over much at all (12 lost turnovers all year) and will slow down the game by running.
Plus, this is a rivalry game and if you give me two touchdowns or more in a rivalry game I am usually going to take the points.