Last Week: 2-2-1
Lock of the Week Overall: 8-3
BC (-21.5) at UConn
This crazy high spread tells you how horrible this UConn team is more than anything else. To put things in perspective, BC hasn’t been favored by this much against a FBS opponent since 2013 when it was favored by 25 over a horrendous New Mexico State squad. It is also just the 4th time in the last ten years that BC has been favored by 21 or more against a FBS opponent.
All seems hunky dory in Storrs after the starting quarterback quit the team this week. You read that right--- quarterback Bryant Shirreffs quit the team this week after a bizarre string of events where Randy Edsall named David Pindell the starting quarterback immediately after the loss against South Florida last weekend and then Shirreffs quit days later. Edsall has went out of his way to compliment Shiffeffs this week most likely in an effort to cover his own butt.
I think this spread is pretty high considering BC is starting its backup quarterback as well. One of my golden rules in picking games is never to pick Randy Edsall and I’m following that rule picking BC here.
Virginia (+19.5) at Miami
Miami is coming off of its biggest win of the decade beating down the ‘Irish during primetime on national TV. There has to be a bit of a letdown going from that to play Virginia at noon, right?
The Hurricanes have slugged their way against lesser competition this year beating FSU by four, GT by one, Syracuse by eight and UNC by five. Miami wins this by two touchdowns.
Texas (+3.5) at West Virginia
Texas coach Tom Hermann had his perfect 8-0 mark as an underdog ATS snapped against TCU a few weeks ago. Still, the fact remains that Hermann is still 8-1 against the number as an underdog.
I think the best unit on the field in this game is the Texas defense which is one of the top three defenses in the Big 12. The Longhorns are holding Big 12 opponents 93 yards per game below their season average this year.
Utah (+17.5) at Washington
Utah is coming off an 8 point loss to Washington State last week which doesn’t look great on paper. However, when you look inside the box score you see that Utah actually outgained WSU but committed an astonishing 7 turnovers in the game. I’m almost impressed that the Utes committed that many turnovers and still almost won.
Meanwhile, Washington is coming off of a dream crusher loss against Stanford which flushed its playoff hopes down the toilet. I question Washington’s motivation here which makes me think this spread is too high.
Lock of the Week
Cal (+16) at Stanford
I’m not going to make friends with a certain former BCI staff member with this pick.
Stanford is coming off of a huge upset win against Washington last week and has a big showdown with the ‘Irish on deck. I realize that this is a huge rivalry game against Cal but it almost feels more like a sandwich game on the schedule for Stanford rather than a the biggest game of the year. On top of that Stanford has owned Cal lately so the Cardinal should enter this game pretty confident.
In previous seasons this 16 point spread would be more like a seven or eight point spread because Cal played such a run-and-gun style of offense mixed with one of the worst defenses in all of college football. However, with the new coaching staff Cal does not play in that shootout style any longer and the defense is much improved. The Golden Bears defense has went from allowing 42.6 PPG to allowing 29.4 PPG which is 7th best in the PAC 12. I think Stanford wins but this game stays within a touchdown.