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Week 12 of the college football season and we start to see some of the traditional rivalry games pop up on the schedule, with the rest of them to be played next week.
Historically, rivalry week has been a tough one for The Book, as those games generally play closer than predicted. This week will give us Cal-Stanford and USC-UCLA, so an early look at what this season will bring.
BC travels down the street to take on UConn at Fenway. The Book has the Eagles as a 22.2 point favorite, a bit above what Vegas has at 21. In doing some investigative work, there essentially is no adjustment in the point spread for the vast majority of college teams who suffer injuries at the quarterback position. Anthony Brown’s injury was seemingly known prior to setting the line, but The Book doesn’t take the change behind center into account at all.
The Eagles dropped to 8th in the ACC and 41st in the country after the NC State loss.
On the national front, the big question is how The Book handles Miami. The Canes like some of their Florida brethren, lost a game to Hurricane Irma, cancelling their trip to Arkansas State and therefore UM will only play 11 regular season games rather than 12.
Florida, South Florida and UCF will all face the same fate and therefore three teams hanging around the Top 25 in Hurricanes, Bulls and Knights, aren’t measured in exactly the same way others are.
The Book currently aggregates all games, rather than averaging all games. That was to take in account the 13th data point, conference championship games as opposed to ignoring regular season games.
How important is this and why is it something that needs review? If Miami simply played the Arkansas St game and won by the spread which was 14.0 at kickoff. The Canes would move up to #6 in the combined poll and #2 in strength of record, instead of #10 combined and #7 SOR.
Our top six this week to compare with the CFP committee are #1 Alabama, #2 Oklahoma, #3 Clemson, #4 Ohio State, #5 Wisconsin and #6 Georgia.
Ohio State four you say? Well consider that the Buckeyes are still #1 in our power rating, and sit at #7 in the Massey poll and #5 in Sagarin, so not totally nuts.
Against the spread, a back over .500 week for the first time in a while as well as picking another BC game correctly. The Book is now 8-2 vs the spread and 7-3 straight up, picking Eagle games.
According to Prediction Tracker, we are now 6th straight up and holding at 21st against the line.
Enjoy the games and Go Eagles!
Final Combined Rankings
RANK | TEAM | WON | LOST | POWER | SOR | MASSEY | SAGARIN |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
RANK | TEAM | WON | LOST | POWER | SOR | MASSEY | SAGARIN |
1 | ALABAMA | 13 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
2 | GEORGIA | 13 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
3 | OHIO ST | 12 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 3 | 2 |
4 | OKLAHOMA | 12 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 7 | 6 |
5 | WISCONSIN | 13 | 1 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 7 |
6 | CLEMSON | 12 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
7 | PENN ST | 11 | 2 | 6 | 9 | 6 | 4 |
8 | USC | 11 | 3 | 15 | 8 | 14 | 15 |
9 | WASHINGTON | 10 | 3 | 8 | 16 | 12 | 9 |
10 | CENTRAL FLORIDA | 13 | 0 | 18 | 7 | 8 | 13 |
11 | NOTRE DAME | 10 | 3 | 13 | 10 | 9 | 10 |
12 | TCU | 11 | 3 | 12 | 11 | 11 | 12 |
13 | AUBURN | 10 | 4 | 9 | 15 | 10 | 8 |
14 | OKLAHOMA ST | 10 | 3 | 10 | 13 | 16 | 11 |
15 | MICHIGAN ST | 10 | 3 | 23 | 12 | 15 | 23 |
16 | NORTHWESTERN | 10 | 3 | 20 | 18 | 17 | 20 |
17 | MIAMI FL | 10 | 3 | 29 | 14 | 13 | 16 |
18 | LSU | 9 | 4 | 11 | 25 | 22 | 19 |
19 | NORTH CAROLINA ST | 9 | 4 | 19 | 19 | 19 | 22 |
20 | STANFORD | 9 | 5 | 14 | 29 | 20 | 14 |
21 | MEMPHIS | 10 | 3 | 28 | 22 | 24 | 31 |
22 | BOISE ST | 11 | 3 | 39 | 17 | 25 | 32 |
23 | VIRGINIA TECH | 9 | 4 | 27 | 24 | 23 | 21 |
24 | IOWA ST | 8 | 5 | 22 | 32 | 27 | 25 |
25 | MISSISSIPPI ST | 9 | 4 | 30 | 23 | 21 | 17 |
26 | WASHINGTON ST | 9 | 4 | 36 | 20 | 33 | 37 |
27 | SOUTH CAROLINA | 9 | 4 | 37 | 21 | 30 | 33 |
28 | MICHIGAN | 8 | 5 | 25 | 37 | 26 | 26 |
29 | KANSAS ST | 8 | 5 | 26 | 38 | 37 | 30 |
30 | TEXAS | 7 | 6 | 17 | 42 | 36 | 27 |
31 | FLORIDA ATLANTIC | 11 | 3 | 35 | 27 | 32 | 45 |
32 | IOWA | 8 | 5 | 34 | 30 | 18 | 18 |
33 | WAKE FOREST | 8 | 5 | 31 | 36 | 28 | 29 |
34 | LOUISVILLE | 8 | 5 | 24 | 39 | 31 | 24 |
35 | FLORIDA ST | 7 | 6 | 16 | 46 | 35 | 28 |
36 | SOUTH FLORIDA | 10 | 2 | 44 | 28 | 29 | 40 |
37 | UTAH | 7 | 6 | 21 | 49 | 47 | 34 |
38 | OREGON | 7 | 6 | 33 | 43 | 48 | 39 |
39 | SAN DIEGO ST | 10 | 3 | 53 | 31 | 41 | 57 |
40 | TOLEDO | 11 | 3 | 58 | 26 | 43 | 65 |
41 | DUKE | 7 | 6 | 32 | 48 | 44 | 38 |
42 | BOSTON COLLEGE | 7 | 6 | 40 | 41 | 34 | 35 |
43 | TROY | 11 | 2 | 59 | 33 | 42 | 63 |
44 | FRESNO ST | 10 | 4 | 57 | 35 | 38 | 51 |
45 | ARIZONA ST | 7 | 6 | 49 | 40 | 49 | 43 |
46 | PURDUE | 7 | 6 | 45 | 44 | 39 | 36 |
47 | ARMY | 10 | 3 | 62 | 34 | 40 | 58 |
48 | TEXAS A&M | 7 | 6 | 42 | 47 | 45 | 42 |
49 | MISSOURI | 7 | 6 | 38 | 59 | 53 | 49 |
50 | WEST VIRGINIA | 7 | 6 | 47 | 45 | 51 | 47 |
51 | ARIZONA | 7 | 6 | 46 | 53 | 58 | 50 |
52 | TEXAS TECH | 6 | 7 | 48 | 56 | 54 | 46 |
53 | UCLA | 6 | 7 | 54 | 50 | 59 | 54 |
54 | GEORGIA TECH | 5 | 6 | 43 | 66 | 50 | 41 |
55 | NAVY | 7 | 6 | 55 | 54 | 46 | 53 |
56 | PITTSBURGH | 5 | 7 | 41 | 72 | 62 | 44 |
57 | KENTUCKY | 7 | 6 | 63 | 51 | 56 | 62 |
58 | MISSISSIPPI | 6 | 6 | 52 | 67 | 60 | 55 |
59 | CALIFORNIA | 5 | 7 | 50 | 69 | 70 | 52 |
60 | HOUSTON | 7 | 5 | 61 | 57 | 52 | 59 |
61 | APPALACHIAN ST | 9 | 4 | 65 | 55 | 55 | 56 |
62 | OHIO | 9 | 4 | 67 | 58 | 57 | 61 |
63 | INDIANA | 5 | 7 | 51 | 84 | 61 | 48 |
64 | TEMPLE | 7 | 6 | 66 | 68 | 63 | 67 |
65 | WYOMING | 8 | 5 | 69 | 64 | 67 | 70 |
66 | FLORIDA | 4 | 7 | 56 | 81 | 71 | 64 |
67 | NORTHERN ILLINOIS | 8 | 5 | 75 | 60 | 64 | 73 |
68 | MARSHALL | 8 | 5 | 78 | 61 | 68 | 79 |
69 | VIRGINIA | 6 | 7 | 77 | 65 | 72 | 76 |
70 | COLORADO | 5 | 7 | 64 | 83 | 85 | 66 |
71 | MINNESOTA | 5 | 7 | 71 | 76 | 69 | 60 |
72 | COLORADO ST | 7 | 6 | 73 | 75 | 79 | 78 |
73 | CENTRAL MICHIGAN | 8 | 5 | 90 | 62 | 75 | 91 |
74 | NORTH TEXAS | 9 | 5 | 101 | 52 | 65 | 93 |
75 | SYRACUSE | 4 | 8 | 70 | 86 | 74 | 69 |
76 | SOUTHERN MISS | 8 | 5 | 82 | 70 | 82 | 94 |
77 | SMU | 7 | 6 | 88 | 71 | 66 | 80 |
78 | NEBRASKA | 4 | 8 | 72 | 87 | 76 | 72 |
79 | VANDERBILT | 5 | 7 | 76 | 85 | 78 | 77 |
80 | NORTH CAROLINA | 3 | 9 | 60 | 102 | 89 | 68 |
81 | MIDDLE TENNESSEE | 7 | 6 | 87 | 77 | 88 | 92 |
82 | LOUISIANA TECH | 7 | 6 | 85 | 79 | 77 | 75 |
83 | ARKANSAS | 4 | 8 | 74 | 92 | 83 | 71 |
84 | FLORIDA INTL | 8 | 5 | 102 | 63 | 86 | 101 |
85 | MARYLAND | 4 | 8 | 89 | 82 | 73 | 74 |
86 | WESTERN MICHIGAN | 6 | 6 | 79 | 89 | 81 | 81 |
87 | ARKANSAS ST | 7 | 5 | 83 | 88 | 84 | 82 |
88 | TULANE | 5 | 7 | 80 | 93 | 80 | 84 |
89 | UTAH ST | 6 | 7 | 86 | 91 | 93 | 83 |
90 | TENNESSEE | 4 | 8 | 81 | 95 | 92 | 85 |
91 | BUFFALO | 6 | 6 | 93 | 90 | 87 | 87 |
92 | EASTERN MICHIGAN | 5 | 7 | 84 | 98 | 94 | 88 |
93 | TEXAS-SAN ANTONIO | 6 | 5 | 92 | 94 | 96 | 97 |
94 | AIR FORCE | 5 | 7 | 91 | 97 | 91 | 86 |
95 | NEW MEXICO ST | 7 | 6 | 105 | 80 | 98 | 99 |
96 | RUTGERS | 4 | 8 | 94 | 96 | 95 | 90 |
97 | UAB | 8 | 5 | 108 | 73 | 97 | 106 |
98 | AKRON | 7 | 7 | 109 | 74 | 90 | 102 |
99 | BAYLOR | 1 | 11 | 68 | 119 | 106 | 89 |
100 | GEORGIA ST | 7 | 5 | 115 | 78 | 99 | 114 |
101 | MIAMI OH | 5 | 7 | 98 | 104 | 100 | 96 |
102 | BYU | 4 | 9 | 96 | 108 | 103 | 98 |
103 | UNLV | 5 | 7 | 104 | 101 | 102 | 103 |
104 | MASSACHUSETTS | 4 | 8 | 95 | 110 | 105 | 104 |
105 | WESTERN KENTUCKY | 6 | 7 | 107 | 100 | 104 | 110 |
106 | LOUISIANA MONROE | 4 | 8 | 106 | 106 | 110 | 111 |
107 | NEVADA | 3 | 9 | 100 | 114 | 107 | 100 |
108 | ILLINOIS | 2 | 10 | 103 | 112 | 111 | 105 |
109 | CINCINNATI | 4 | 8 | 113 | 105 | 101 | 107 |
110 | TULSA | 2 | 10 | 99 | 117 | 108 | 95 |
111 | OREGON ST | 1 | 11 | 97 | 122 | 119 | 109 |
112 | OLD DOMINION | 5 | 7 | 119 | 99 | 113 | 118 |
113 | IDAHO | 4 | 8 | 110 | 109 | 114 | 112 |
114 | EAST CAROLINA | 3 | 9 | 118 | 107 | 109 | 108 |
115 | LOUISIANA | 5 | 7 | 122 | 103 | 117 | 119 |
116 | SOUTH ALABAMA | 4 | 8 | 112 | 113 | 115 | 121 |
117 | CONNECTICUT | 3 | 9 | 114 | 111 | 112 | 113 |
118 | NEW MEXICO | 3 | 9 | 111 | 115 | 116 | 115 |
119 | KANSAS | 1 | 11 | 116 | 118 | 123 | 122 |
120 | BOWLING GREEN | 2 | 10 | 117 | 121 | 118 | 116 |
121 | COASTAL CAROLINA | 3 | 9 | 120 | 120 | 120 | 123 |
122 | HAWAII | 3 | 9 | 123 | 116 | 122 | 120 |
123 | GEORGIA SOUTHERN | 2 | 10 | 121 | 123 | 121 | 117 |
124 | KENT ST | 2 | 10 | 126 | 124 | 124 | 127 |
125 | SAN JOSE ST | 2 | 11 | 127 | 125 | 125 | 125 |
126 | RICE | 1 | 11 | 124 | 128 | 127 | 124 |
127 | CHARLOTTE | 1 | 11 | 125 | 129 | 128 | 129 |
128 | TEXAS ST | 2 | 10 | 128 | 127 | 126 | 126 |
129 | BALL ST | 2 | 10 | 130 | 126 | 129 | 128 |
130 | UTEP | 0 | 12 | 129 | 130 | 130 | 130 |
The Massey Composite rankings are as of Thursday afternoon, January 11 |
Final ACC Rankings
RANK | TEAM | WON | LOST | POWER | SOR | MASSEY | SAGARIN |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
RANK | TEAM | WON | LOST | POWER | SOR | MASSEY | SAGARIN |
1 | CLEMSON | 12 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
2 | MIAMI FL | 10 | 3 | 29 | 14 | 13 | 16 |
3 | NORTH CAROLINA ST | 9 | 4 | 19 | 19 | 19 | 22 |
4 | VIRGINIA TECH | 9 | 4 | 27 | 24 | 23 | 21 |
5 | WAKE FOREST | 8 | 5 | 31 | 36 | 28 | 29 |
6 | LOUISVILLE | 8 | 5 | 24 | 39 | 31 | 24 |
7 | FLORIDA ST | 7 | 6 | 16 | 46 | 35 | 28 |
8 | DUKE | 7 | 6 | 32 | 48 | 44 | 38 |
9 | BOSTON COLLEGE | 7 | 6 | 40 | 41 | 34 | 35 |
10 | GEORGIA TECH | 5 | 6 | 43 | 66 | 50 | 41 |
11 | PITTSBURGH | 5 | 7 | 41 | 72 | 62 | 44 |
12 | VIRGINIA | 6 | 7 | 77 | 65 | 72 | 76 |
13 | SYRACUSE | 4 | 8 | 70 | 86 | 74 | 69 |
14 | NORTH CAROLINA | 3 | 9 | 60 | 102 | 89 | 68 |
Final vs Vegas Point Spread
Vs The Vegas Spread | Won | Lost | Tied | Pct. |
---|---|---|---|---|
Vs The Vegas Spread | Won | Lost | Tied | Pct. |
Week | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 |
Previous | 379 | 370 | 16 | .506 |
Total | 380 | 370 | 16 | .507 |
Straight Up | Won | Lost | Pct | |
Week | 1 | 0 | 1.000 | |
Previous | 564 | 210 | .729 | |
Total | 565 | 210 | .729 | |
Boston College Games | Won | Lost | Pct | |
vs Spread | 9 | 4 | .692 | |
Straight Up | 10 | 3 | .769 |