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The Book 2017: Week 10

Eagles continue to rise. Does The Book agree with CFP Committee?

By John Fidler
Florida State v Boston College
Eagles keep running to a higher ground
Photo by Maddie Meyer/Getty Images

Here we go!

The College Football Playoff committee has finally released its first set of rankings for the 2017 season and it gives us a chance to compare their teams and The Book’s teams in those same spots and some of the methodology each uses to make its case.

The CFP has: #1 Georgia, #2 Alabama, #3 Notre Dame and #4 Clemson, with Oklahoma #5 and Ohio State at #6.

The Book meanwhile has: #1 Alabama, #2 Georgia, #3 Clemson and #4 Wisconsin, with Oklahoma #5 and Penn State #6.

So how did both get there?

With the CFP, the focus seemed to be first your strength of record as opposed to who they felt the best team was. Everyone’s best team appears to be Alabama, but they viewed Georgia’s wins and their overall strength as better. There was also clearly some stack ranking in terms of Oklahoma ahead of Ohio State who was ahead of Penn State and that reflected who beat who.

The Book remember uses a weighted percentage of power rankings and strength of record. After last week, I removed the strength of schedule component from the combined after determining it was too heavily weighting the strength of record.

I promise next week I will note the percentages but for example, Alabama at #1 in the power ranking gets 100%, Georgia at #4 was somewhere .9541 of Bama. Combined that with their SOR, where UGA is #1 and Alabama a .998 of Georgia, the Tide are actually higher overall than the Dawgs.

One of the human intuitive components that comes up a lot is the status of a team when you play them. Take Florida State and how they were when Alabama played them as opposed to when BC played them last week. The committee seems to indicate they view that Bama win as significantly better than BC’s win because of the presence of Deondre Francois.

Seems reasonable on the surface, but ultimately, I am not so sure. That was game one and now 7-8 games into the season for most teams that we truly start to get the idea of who those teams are for real.

Three teams that were ranked in the top 25 preseason were not in the committee’s first poll, those being FSU, Michigan and Louisville.

Which of course brings us to BC.

The Eagles continue to rise, now #35 in the combined poll. #47 in power rankings, #32 in strength of record. No longer looking bizarrely different than the Massey (#34) or Sagarin (#37) polls have them ranked.

Remember that our SOR rankings are cumulative, not averaged. This was to take into account the CFP committee’s stance on playing that extra game for a conference championship. That means that BC is likely to fall in next week’s rankings without playing a game as other teams will build up that half of the equation by playing. BC is also one game ahead of many teams, having played 9 games already to most school’s 8. This then becomes a catch up week of sorts for most to even the playing field in terms of games played. It is also why Miami is at a distinct disadvantage being down a game after losing the Arkansas State game to the hurricane in September.

BC is 5th in the ACC rankings behind Clemson, Miami, Virginia Tech and NC State and just a nose ahead of Georgia Tech and Wake Forest.

The Eagles though, hold no wins over teams ranked higher than they are and as mentioned, have two wins against teams who have arguably under achieved more so than any teams in the country.

Still then trying to figure out reality.

Although BC is off this week, some big games on the docket, including at least one CFP elimination game between Oklahoma and Oklahoma State.

Not a great week vs Vegas where for the first time since week 1 we were more than two games under .500, but overall, not so bad. According to Prediction Tracker now #10 among now 60 computer polls, picking winners straight up and #21 against the line.

Two of the computer polls, Linear Regression and Logistic Regression, although they jumped in only in the past two weeks are over 60% vs the spread for the year, that’s really impressive. Much like the polls that make up the Massey composite, the longer you wait, the more accurate you can be as opposed to the guessing game that are pre-season polls.

Enjoy the games and Go Eagles!

Final Combined Rankings

RANK TEAM WON LOST POWER SOR MASSEY SAGARIN
RANK TEAM WON LOST POWER SOR MASSEY SAGARIN
1 ALABAMA 13 1 1 2 1 1
2 GEORGIA 13 2 3 1 2 3
3 OHIO ST 12 2 2 6 3 2
4 OKLAHOMA 12 2 4 4 7 6
5 WISCONSIN 13 1 7 3 4 7
6 CLEMSON 12 2 5 5 5 5
7 PENN ST 11 2 6 9 6 4
8 USC 11 3 15 8 14 15
9 WASHINGTON 10 3 8 16 12 9
10 CENTRAL FLORIDA 13 0 18 7 8 13
11 NOTRE DAME 10 3 13 10 9 10
12 TCU 11 3 12 11 11 12
13 AUBURN 10 4 9 15 10 8
14 OKLAHOMA ST 10 3 10 13 16 11
15 MICHIGAN ST 10 3 23 12 15 23
16 NORTHWESTERN 10 3 20 18 17 20
17 MIAMI FL 10 3 29 14 13 16
18 LSU 9 4 11 25 22 19
19 NORTH CAROLINA ST 9 4 19 19 19 22
20 STANFORD 9 5 14 29 20 14
21 MEMPHIS 10 3 28 22 24 31
22 BOISE ST 11 3 39 17 25 32
23 VIRGINIA TECH 9 4 27 24 23 21
24 IOWA ST 8 5 22 32 27 25
25 MISSISSIPPI ST 9 4 30 23 21 17
26 WASHINGTON ST 9 4 36 20 33 37
27 SOUTH CAROLINA 9 4 37 21 30 33
28 MICHIGAN 8 5 25 37 26 26
29 KANSAS ST 8 5 26 38 37 30
30 TEXAS 7 6 17 42 36 27
31 FLORIDA ATLANTIC 11 3 35 27 32 45
32 IOWA 8 5 34 30 18 18
33 WAKE FOREST 8 5 31 36 28 29
34 LOUISVILLE 8 5 24 39 31 24
35 FLORIDA ST 7 6 16 46 35 28
36 SOUTH FLORIDA 10 2 44 28 29 40
37 UTAH 7 6 21 49 47 34
38 OREGON 7 6 33 43 48 39
39 SAN DIEGO ST 10 3 53 31 41 57
40 TOLEDO 11 3 58 26 43 65
41 DUKE 7 6 32 48 44 38
42 BOSTON COLLEGE 7 6 40 41 34 35
43 TROY 11 2 59 33 42 63
44 FRESNO ST 10 4 57 35 38 51
45 ARIZONA ST 7 6 49 40 49 43
46 PURDUE 7 6 45 44 39 36
47 ARMY 10 3 62 34 40 58
48 TEXAS A&M 7 6 42 47 45 42
49 MISSOURI 7 6 38 59 53 49
50 WEST VIRGINIA 7 6 47 45 51 47
51 ARIZONA 7 6 46 53 58 50
52 TEXAS TECH 6 7 48 56 54 46
53 UCLA 6 7 54 50 59 54
54 GEORGIA TECH 5 6 43 66 50 41
55 NAVY 7 6 55 54 46 53
56 PITTSBURGH 5 7 41 72 62 44
57 KENTUCKY 7 6 63 51 56 62
58 MISSISSIPPI 6 6 52 67 60 55
59 CALIFORNIA 5 7 50 69 70 52
60 HOUSTON 7 5 61 57 52 59
61 APPALACHIAN ST 9 4 65 55 55 56
62 OHIO 9 4 67 58 57 61
63 INDIANA 5 7 51 84 61 48
64 TEMPLE 7 6 66 68 63 67
65 WYOMING 8 5 69 64 67 70
66 FLORIDA 4 7 56 81 71 64
67 NORTHERN ILLINOIS 8 5 75 60 64 73
68 MARSHALL 8 5 78 61 68 79
69 VIRGINIA 6 7 77 65 72 76
70 COLORADO 5 7 64 83 85 66
71 MINNESOTA 5 7 71 76 69 60
72 COLORADO ST 7 6 73 75 79 78
73 CENTRAL MICHIGAN 8 5 90 62 75 91
74 NORTH TEXAS 9 5 101 52 65 93
75 SYRACUSE 4 8 70 86 74 69
76 SOUTHERN MISS 8 5 82 70 82 94
77 SMU 7 6 88 71 66 80
78 NEBRASKA 4 8 72 87 76 72
79 VANDERBILT 5 7 76 85 78 77
80 NORTH CAROLINA 3 9 60 102 89 68
81 MIDDLE TENNESSEE 7 6 87 77 88 92
82 LOUISIANA TECH 7 6 85 79 77 75
83 ARKANSAS 4 8 74 92 83 71
84 FLORIDA INTL 8 5 102 63 86 101
85 MARYLAND 4 8 89 82 73 74
86 WESTERN MICHIGAN 6 6 79 89 81 81
87 ARKANSAS ST 7 5 83 88 84 82
88 TULANE 5 7 80 93 80 84
89 UTAH ST 6 7 86 91 93 83
90 TENNESSEE 4 8 81 95 92 85
91 BUFFALO 6 6 93 90 87 87
92 EASTERN MICHIGAN 5 7 84 98 94 88
93 TEXAS-SAN ANTONIO 6 5 92 94 96 97
94 AIR FORCE 5 7 91 97 91 86
95 NEW MEXICO ST 7 6 105 80 98 99
96 RUTGERS 4 8 94 96 95 90
97 UAB 8 5 108 73 97 106
98 AKRON 7 7 109 74 90 102
99 BAYLOR 1 11 68 119 106 89
100 GEORGIA ST 7 5 115 78 99 114
101 MIAMI OH 5 7 98 104 100 96
102 BYU 4 9 96 108 103 98
103 UNLV 5 7 104 101 102 103
104 MASSACHUSETTS 4 8 95 110 105 104
105 WESTERN KENTUCKY 6 7 107 100 104 110
106 LOUISIANA MONROE 4 8 106 106 110 111
107 NEVADA 3 9 100 114 107 100
108 ILLINOIS 2 10 103 112 111 105
109 CINCINNATI 4 8 113 105 101 107
110 TULSA 2 10 99 117 108 95
111 OREGON ST 1 11 97 122 119 109
112 OLD DOMINION 5 7 119 99 113 118
113 IDAHO 4 8 110 109 114 112
114 EAST CAROLINA 3 9 118 107 109 108
115 LOUISIANA 5 7 122 103 117 119
116 SOUTH ALABAMA 4 8 112 113 115 121
117 CONNECTICUT 3 9 114 111 112 113
118 NEW MEXICO 3 9 111 115 116 115
119 KANSAS 1 11 116 118 123 122
120 BOWLING GREEN 2 10 117 121 118 116
121 COASTAL CAROLINA 3 9 120 120 120 123
122 HAWAII 3 9 123 116 122 120
123 GEORGIA SOUTHERN 2 10 121 123 121 117
124 KENT ST 2 10 126 124 124 127
125 SAN JOSE ST 2 11 127 125 125 125
126 RICE 1 11 124 128 127 124
127 CHARLOTTE 1 11 125 129 128 129
128 TEXAS ST 2 10 128 127 126 126
129 BALL ST 2 10 130 126 129 128
130 UTEP 0 12 129 130 130 130
The Massey Composite rankings are as of Thursday afternoon, January 11

Final ACC Rankings

RANK TEAM WON LOST POWER SOR MASSEY SAGARIN
RANK TEAM WON LOST POWER SOR MASSEY SAGARIN
1 CLEMSON 12 2 5 5 5 5
2 MIAMI FL 10 3 29 14 13 16
3 NORTH CAROLINA ST 9 4 19 19 19 22
4 VIRGINIA TECH 9 4 27 24 23 21
5 WAKE FOREST 8 5 31 36 28 29
6 LOUISVILLE 8 5 24 39 31 24
7 FLORIDA ST 7 6 16 46 35 28
8 DUKE 7 6 32 48 44 38
9 BOSTON COLLEGE 7 6 40 41 34 35
10 GEORGIA TECH 5 6 43 66 50 41
11 PITTSBURGH 5 7 41 72 62 44
12 VIRGINIA 6 7 77 65 72 76
13 SYRACUSE 4 8 70 86 74 69
14 NORTH CAROLINA 3 9 60 102 89 68

Final vs Vegas Point Spread

Vs The Vegas Spread Won Lost Tied Pct.
Vs The Vegas Spread Won Lost Tied Pct.
Week 1 0 0 1.000
Previous 379 370 16 .506
Total 380 370 16 .507
Straight Up Won Lost Pct
Week 1 0 1.000
Previous 564 210 .729
Total 565 210 .729
Boston College Games Won Lost Pct
vs Spread 9 4 .692
Straight Up 10 3 .769

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