Week 6 sees a change at the top of the Strength of Record ratings, as Clemson by virtue of it’s 3rd big win of the season (Auburn, Louisville and now Virginia Tech) takes over the top spot from USC.
The Trojans would have maintained their position with a victory at highly ranked Washington State, but Mike Leach’s team held on for the 30-27 win, knocking USC from the ranks of the unbeaten.
The top four then this week consists of #1 Clemson, #2 Alabama, #3 Georgia and #4 Penn State, with San Diego State and Washington State just on the outside. The top four match exactly to the current Massey ratings. The issue with Oklahoma right now, the weakness of their schedule besides Ohio State and having played only four games to everyone else’s five. For Washington, outside of a decent win at Colorado, the Huskies haven’t beaten anyone.
Boston College checks in this week at number 62 in the SOR ratings, #74 in the Power ratings and #60 overall. The Power rating number similar to Sagarin (77) and Massey (71). BC’s 60 overall rating is due almost exclusively to their strength of schedule (not to be confused with strength of record).
BC has been number one for several weeks now and that may or may not change after this week, playing another highly ranked opponent in Virginia Tech. In case you are curious, the top five teams in that component which is based on the opponents current strength of record and the opponents current power ranking are: 1) BC, 2) Florida State, 3) North Carolina, 4) Arizona State and 5) Stanford.
The top five teams in our current Strength of Record poll sit as follows in terms of strength of schedule: Clemson (19), Alabama (33), Georgia (30), Penn State (55) and San Diego St (92). You can see then what will ultimately doom the Aztecs is just not playing enough good teams.
In terms of how BC looks for the rest of the season, currently at 2-3:
Virginia Tech 13.7 at BC
at Louisville 16.9 BC
at Virginia 5.1 BC
Florida State 19.9 at BC (this one I really expect to change by the time we reach the game)
NC State 9.3 at BC
BC 14.5 UConn
at Syracuse 10.3 BC
Touching on Florida State, they are definitely an anomaly when it comes to The Book and one I have to address in the off season. The loss of Deondre Francois (perhaps it is more) has had a profound impact on the Noles. Add in the missed games due to the hurricane and we have a completely out of whack line this week vs Miami where FSU is a 9.3 point favorite by our measurements and a 1.5 point dog in Vegas.
In this case, I am leaning toward the wise guys as we just don’t account for that properly.
As for our progress picking winners and against the spread, not bad for week 5.
Winners 43-9 for the week, which puts us at .783 for the season. Against the spread, exactly .500 for a second consecutive week, now at .529 for the season. According to Prediction Tracker, that would put us #14 picking winners and 17th against the Vegas spread. Still safely in the top half of all computer ratings.
The Eagles tackle Virginia Tech in a 7:15 kickoff on Saturday and shockingly, The Book is leaning and leaning pretty heavily BC’s way. Danny Sheridan opened with VT a 17 point favorite and although the Book doesn’t pick BC to win the game, they do like them to cover with the Hokies a 13.7 point pick.
The rest of the games scare me a bit this week, but not sure why. We still have 18 games with the point spread within one of the Vegas line, but we have a lot with much wider spreads and also have a lot of road favorites.
If you want a real oddity, take a look at the Massey rankings and where Central Florida sits. 16 of the 84 polls list the Knights #1 in the country. Of course, the rest balance it off and overall UCF is at #16. The Book has UCF 31th in the SOR, 37th in the PR and 32nd overall.
Enjoy the games and Go Eagles!
Final Combined Rankings
RANK | TEAM | WON | LOST | POWER | SOR | MASSEY | SAGARIN |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
RANK | TEAM | WON | LOST | POWER | SOR | MASSEY | SAGARIN |
1 | ALABAMA | 13 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
2 | GEORGIA | 13 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
3 | OHIO ST | 12 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 3 | 2 |
4 | OKLAHOMA | 12 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 7 | 6 |
5 | WISCONSIN | 13 | 1 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 7 |
6 | CLEMSON | 12 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
7 | PENN ST | 11 | 2 | 6 | 9 | 6 | 4 |
8 | USC | 11 | 3 | 15 | 8 | 14 | 15 |
9 | WASHINGTON | 10 | 3 | 8 | 16 | 12 | 9 |
10 | CENTRAL FLORIDA | 13 | 0 | 18 | 7 | 8 | 13 |
11 | NOTRE DAME | 10 | 3 | 13 | 10 | 9 | 10 |
12 | TCU | 11 | 3 | 12 | 11 | 11 | 12 |
13 | AUBURN | 10 | 4 | 9 | 15 | 10 | 8 |
14 | OKLAHOMA ST | 10 | 3 | 10 | 13 | 16 | 11 |
15 | MICHIGAN ST | 10 | 3 | 23 | 12 | 15 | 23 |
16 | NORTHWESTERN | 10 | 3 | 20 | 18 | 17 | 20 |
17 | MIAMI FL | 10 | 3 | 29 | 14 | 13 | 16 |
18 | LSU | 9 | 4 | 11 | 25 | 22 | 19 |
19 | NORTH CAROLINA ST | 9 | 4 | 19 | 19 | 19 | 22 |
20 | STANFORD | 9 | 5 | 14 | 29 | 20 | 14 |
21 | MEMPHIS | 10 | 3 | 28 | 22 | 24 | 31 |
22 | BOISE ST | 11 | 3 | 39 | 17 | 25 | 32 |
23 | VIRGINIA TECH | 9 | 4 | 27 | 24 | 23 | 21 |
24 | IOWA ST | 8 | 5 | 22 | 32 | 27 | 25 |
25 | MISSISSIPPI ST | 9 | 4 | 30 | 23 | 21 | 17 |
26 | WASHINGTON ST | 9 | 4 | 36 | 20 | 33 | 37 |
27 | SOUTH CAROLINA | 9 | 4 | 37 | 21 | 30 | 33 |
28 | MICHIGAN | 8 | 5 | 25 | 37 | 26 | 26 |
29 | KANSAS ST | 8 | 5 | 26 | 38 | 37 | 30 |
30 | TEXAS | 7 | 6 | 17 | 42 | 36 | 27 |
31 | FLORIDA ATLANTIC | 11 | 3 | 35 | 27 | 32 | 45 |
32 | IOWA | 8 | 5 | 34 | 30 | 18 | 18 |
33 | WAKE FOREST | 8 | 5 | 31 | 36 | 28 | 29 |
34 | LOUISVILLE | 8 | 5 | 24 | 39 | 31 | 24 |
35 | FLORIDA ST | 7 | 6 | 16 | 46 | 35 | 28 |
36 | SOUTH FLORIDA | 10 | 2 | 44 | 28 | 29 | 40 |
37 | UTAH | 7 | 6 | 21 | 49 | 47 | 34 |
38 | OREGON | 7 | 6 | 33 | 43 | 48 | 39 |
39 | SAN DIEGO ST | 10 | 3 | 53 | 31 | 41 | 57 |
40 | TOLEDO | 11 | 3 | 58 | 26 | 43 | 65 |
41 | DUKE | 7 | 6 | 32 | 48 | 44 | 38 |
42 | BOSTON COLLEGE | 7 | 6 | 40 | 41 | 34 | 35 |
43 | TROY | 11 | 2 | 59 | 33 | 42 | 63 |
44 | FRESNO ST | 10 | 4 | 57 | 35 | 38 | 51 |
45 | ARIZONA ST | 7 | 6 | 49 | 40 | 49 | 43 |
46 | PURDUE | 7 | 6 | 45 | 44 | 39 | 36 |
47 | ARMY | 10 | 3 | 62 | 34 | 40 | 58 |
48 | TEXAS A&M | 7 | 6 | 42 | 47 | 45 | 42 |
49 | MISSOURI | 7 | 6 | 38 | 59 | 53 | 49 |
50 | WEST VIRGINIA | 7 | 6 | 47 | 45 | 51 | 47 |
51 | ARIZONA | 7 | 6 | 46 | 53 | 58 | 50 |
52 | TEXAS TECH | 6 | 7 | 48 | 56 | 54 | 46 |
53 | UCLA | 6 | 7 | 54 | 50 | 59 | 54 |
54 | GEORGIA TECH | 5 | 6 | 43 | 66 | 50 | 41 |
55 | NAVY | 7 | 6 | 55 | 54 | 46 | 53 |
56 | PITTSBURGH | 5 | 7 | 41 | 72 | 62 | 44 |
57 | KENTUCKY | 7 | 6 | 63 | 51 | 56 | 62 |
58 | MISSISSIPPI | 6 | 6 | 52 | 67 | 60 | 55 |
59 | CALIFORNIA | 5 | 7 | 50 | 69 | 70 | 52 |
60 | HOUSTON | 7 | 5 | 61 | 57 | 52 | 59 |
61 | APPALACHIAN ST | 9 | 4 | 65 | 55 | 55 | 56 |
62 | OHIO | 9 | 4 | 67 | 58 | 57 | 61 |
63 | INDIANA | 5 | 7 | 51 | 84 | 61 | 48 |
64 | TEMPLE | 7 | 6 | 66 | 68 | 63 | 67 |
65 | WYOMING | 8 | 5 | 69 | 64 | 67 | 70 |
66 | FLORIDA | 4 | 7 | 56 | 81 | 71 | 64 |
67 | NORTHERN ILLINOIS | 8 | 5 | 75 | 60 | 64 | 73 |
68 | MARSHALL | 8 | 5 | 78 | 61 | 68 | 79 |
69 | VIRGINIA | 6 | 7 | 77 | 65 | 72 | 76 |
70 | COLORADO | 5 | 7 | 64 | 83 | 85 | 66 |
71 | MINNESOTA | 5 | 7 | 71 | 76 | 69 | 60 |
72 | COLORADO ST | 7 | 6 | 73 | 75 | 79 | 78 |
73 | CENTRAL MICHIGAN | 8 | 5 | 90 | 62 | 75 | 91 |
74 | NORTH TEXAS | 9 | 5 | 101 | 52 | 65 | 93 |
75 | SYRACUSE | 4 | 8 | 70 | 86 | 74 | 69 |
76 | SOUTHERN MISS | 8 | 5 | 82 | 70 | 82 | 94 |
77 | SMU | 7 | 6 | 88 | 71 | 66 | 80 |
78 | NEBRASKA | 4 | 8 | 72 | 87 | 76 | 72 |
79 | VANDERBILT | 5 | 7 | 76 | 85 | 78 | 77 |
80 | NORTH CAROLINA | 3 | 9 | 60 | 102 | 89 | 68 |
81 | MIDDLE TENNESSEE | 7 | 6 | 87 | 77 | 88 | 92 |
82 | LOUISIANA TECH | 7 | 6 | 85 | 79 | 77 | 75 |
83 | ARKANSAS | 4 | 8 | 74 | 92 | 83 | 71 |
84 | FLORIDA INTL | 8 | 5 | 102 | 63 | 86 | 101 |
85 | MARYLAND | 4 | 8 | 89 | 82 | 73 | 74 |
86 | WESTERN MICHIGAN | 6 | 6 | 79 | 89 | 81 | 81 |
87 | ARKANSAS ST | 7 | 5 | 83 | 88 | 84 | 82 |
88 | TULANE | 5 | 7 | 80 | 93 | 80 | 84 |
89 | UTAH ST | 6 | 7 | 86 | 91 | 93 | 83 |
90 | TENNESSEE | 4 | 8 | 81 | 95 | 92 | 85 |
91 | BUFFALO | 6 | 6 | 93 | 90 | 87 | 87 |
92 | EASTERN MICHIGAN | 5 | 7 | 84 | 98 | 94 | 88 |
93 | TEXAS-SAN ANTONIO | 6 | 5 | 92 | 94 | 96 | 97 |
94 | AIR FORCE | 5 | 7 | 91 | 97 | 91 | 86 |
95 | NEW MEXICO ST | 7 | 6 | 105 | 80 | 98 | 99 |
96 | RUTGERS | 4 | 8 | 94 | 96 | 95 | 90 |
97 | UAB | 8 | 5 | 108 | 73 | 97 | 106 |
98 | AKRON | 7 | 7 | 109 | 74 | 90 | 102 |
99 | BAYLOR | 1 | 11 | 68 | 119 | 106 | 89 |
100 | GEORGIA ST | 7 | 5 | 115 | 78 | 99 | 114 |
101 | MIAMI OH | 5 | 7 | 98 | 104 | 100 | 96 |
102 | BYU | 4 | 9 | 96 | 108 | 103 | 98 |
103 | UNLV | 5 | 7 | 104 | 101 | 102 | 103 |
104 | MASSACHUSETTS | 4 | 8 | 95 | 110 | 105 | 104 |
105 | WESTERN KENTUCKY | 6 | 7 | 107 | 100 | 104 | 110 |
106 | LOUISIANA MONROE | 4 | 8 | 106 | 106 | 110 | 111 |
107 | NEVADA | 3 | 9 | 100 | 114 | 107 | 100 |
108 | ILLINOIS | 2 | 10 | 103 | 112 | 111 | 105 |
109 | CINCINNATI | 4 | 8 | 113 | 105 | 101 | 107 |
110 | TULSA | 2 | 10 | 99 | 117 | 108 | 95 |
111 | OREGON ST | 1 | 11 | 97 | 122 | 119 | 109 |
112 | OLD DOMINION | 5 | 7 | 119 | 99 | 113 | 118 |
113 | IDAHO | 4 | 8 | 110 | 109 | 114 | 112 |
114 | EAST CAROLINA | 3 | 9 | 118 | 107 | 109 | 108 |
115 | LOUISIANA | 5 | 7 | 122 | 103 | 117 | 119 |
116 | SOUTH ALABAMA | 4 | 8 | 112 | 113 | 115 | 121 |
117 | CONNECTICUT | 3 | 9 | 114 | 111 | 112 | 113 |
118 | NEW MEXICO | 3 | 9 | 111 | 115 | 116 | 115 |
119 | KANSAS | 1 | 11 | 116 | 118 | 123 | 122 |
120 | BOWLING GREEN | 2 | 10 | 117 | 121 | 118 | 116 |
121 | COASTAL CAROLINA | 3 | 9 | 120 | 120 | 120 | 123 |
122 | HAWAII | 3 | 9 | 123 | 116 | 122 | 120 |
123 | GEORGIA SOUTHERN | 2 | 10 | 121 | 123 | 121 | 117 |
124 | KENT ST | 2 | 10 | 126 | 124 | 124 | 127 |
125 | SAN JOSE ST | 2 | 11 | 127 | 125 | 125 | 125 |
126 | RICE | 1 | 11 | 124 | 128 | 127 | 124 |
127 | CHARLOTTE | 1 | 11 | 125 | 129 | 128 | 129 |
128 | TEXAS ST | 2 | 10 | 128 | 127 | 126 | 126 |
129 | BALL ST | 2 | 10 | 130 | 126 | 129 | 128 |
130 | UTEP | 0 | 12 | 129 | 130 | 130 | 130 |
The Massey Composite rankings are as of Thursday afternoon, January 11 |
Final vs Vegas Point Spread
Vs The Vegas Spread | Won | Lost | Tied | Pct. |
---|---|---|---|---|
Vs The Vegas Spread | Won | Lost | Tied | Pct. |
Week | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 |
Previous | 379 | 370 | 16 | .506 |
Total | 380 | 370 | 16 | .507 |
Straight Up | Won | Lost | Pct | |
Week | 1 | 0 | 1.000 | |
Previous | 564 | 210 | .729 | |
Total | 565 | 210 | .729 | |
Boston College Games | Won | Lost | Pct | |
vs Spread | 9 | 4 | .692 | |
Straight Up | 10 | 3 | .769 |