In Daz we trust! For tonight anyways!
Last Week: 2-3
Lock of the Week Overall: 6-2
Penn State at Ohio State (-6.5)
In full disclosure I haven’t been great at picking Penn State games (1-2) this year, including a complete whiff selecting Michigan against the Nittany Lions last week.
I like Ohio State in this spot for a few reasons. The Buckeyes seem to have some mojo back with the offense after hanging 54, 56, 62 and 56 points on opponents over the last three weeks. Secondly, OSU knows that this is its last stand for a shot at the National Championship. Third, there is a revenge factor after last year’s loss at Happy Valley. Last, and certainly not least, Urban Meyer is the best in the business when he has time to prepare. In season opener’s and bye weeks---in other words with more than a week to prepare---Meyer is an incredible 36-12-1 against the spread.
Oklahoma State at West Virginia (+7.5)
The Okie State offense is rolling as usual putting up 584 yards per game and 43.7 points per game. There’s no doubt both are very impressive numbers. However, did you know West Virginia is putting up 43.3 points per game and 539.4 yards per game? While the WVU offense doesn’t get the same press clippings as Okie State it certainly puts up very comparable numbers.
I will admit that the OSU defense is better than WV’s defense. However, I think that is negated with the fact that the Cowboys have a banged up offensive line and West Virginia has one of the best home field advantages in college football. Give me the Mountaineers
NC State (+7.5) at Notre Dame
Notre Dame’s rushing offense has been impressive this year piling up 317 yards per game. Even more impressive is ND’s 7.06 yards per carry which is 2nd highest in the nation.
With that being said, Notre Dame had only 55 yards rushing against Georgia and 182 against Michigan State. The ‘Irish were not able to rush as effectively against better rush defenses and that’s what they’ll be going against this weekend against NC State’s 6th ranked rush defense that’s allowing 91 yards per game. ND might pull this off but NC State keeps it close.
USC at Arizona State (+3.5)
I’ve won two games with the Sun Devils this year and hope to make it a perfect 3-0 in this one.
ASU is kind of the west coast version of BC right now. With coach Todd Graham on the hot seat, ASU has won 3-of-4 and even more importantly to us, 4-0 ATS in those games. Most impressive is that the Sun Devils were double digit dogs in all three of the wins.
Meanwhile, USC comes into this game limping after a 49-14 beat down from Notre Dame that effectively ended USC’s National Title hopes. Remember when the Trojans blasted Stanford 42-24 in week two? Well since that time USC is 0-6 ATS and has lost two games.
Lock of the Week
FSU at BC (+4.5)
Yes, hell has frozen over. I am taking Steve Addazio as my LOCK OF THE WEEK!
The Eagles have been on a roll in Vegas winning five straight games against the spread (ATS). The last time BC was on a streak even nearly this good was at the end of the 2014 season when it covered two straight and then covered the first two games of the 2015 season. In terms of straight up victories, BC has not won three straight ACC games since 2013 and has not won an ACC home game since 2014, so clearly there is a lot at stake here.
Florida State is on an exact opposite trend as BC going 0-5-1 ATS this year and losers straight up in two-of-three. At 2-4, FSU desperately needs a win, but how motivated will the team be? Is finishing with a winning record something these players care about or have they checked out after dreams of an ACC Title went down the drain?
While FSU is imploding on the field, Jimbo Fisher is imploding off it. Did you see last week where he went after some heckling FSU fans? And we thought Addazio was on tilt with his “It’s going to be beautiful rant”. Even FSU writers are calling out Jimbo at this point.
Regardless of motivation and distractions the ‘Noles offense has been putrid this year averaging 19.8 PPG, which is dead last in the conference. To put that number in perspective, BC is averaging 23 PPG on the season even after its putrid start to the season on offense.
The BC defense doesn’t have great stats like it has in past year but it is holding opponents 20 yards below their season average which is pretty respectable. FSU might find a way to sneak out this win but 4.5 is too many points to give the KING of Ketchup and Fries right now!!!