Last Week: 3-2
Lock of the Week Overall: 5-2
Boston College (+7) at Virginia
AJ Dillon’s performance was obviously out of this world. My question is—Where has that level of workload been for Dillon all year? Before Dillon got 39 carries last week the most he got in a game was 25 against Central Michigan and surprise surprise he had 120 yards and 4.8 ypc. Is it possible that Addazio has been saving his freshman back to ride him in the 2nd half of the season after the offensive line figured things out? Did Addazio save him in order to please Jon Hilliman mentally to keep him from checking out when a freshman back took over three games into the year? Addazio floated the “hot hand” approach this week which sounds good in theory. However, only in two games this year has the RB that ended with the higher yards per carry in that game actually ended up with the most carries in that game. Perhaps I’m spending entirely too much time thinking about Addazio’s RB strategy this season.
I’m going to ride BC’s four game winning streak against the spread one more week.
Michigan (+10) at Penn State
I’ll admit that the Michigan offense scares the living hell out of me with the 79th scoring offense and the 87th total offense in the country. However, when Jim Harbaugh loses it isn’t usually by much. In Harbaugh’s 6 losses at Michigan all but one was within seven points, and that one was against a juggernaut Ohio State squad that won the title in 2015.
I continue to be unimpressed with this Penn State offense that has the national hype of a top five offense but in reality has the 15th ranked scoring offense and 33rd ranked total offense in the country. A very good offense sure, but not great.
In Don Brown I trust to get the job done in Happy Valley.
LSU at Ole Miss (+7)
LSU has won two in a row as the underdog role and now is headed on the road as a favorite. Not exactly the spot you want to back the Tigers and Ed Orgeron in. It feels a bit too much like buying the extra rental car insurance from Hertz.
Ole Miss isn’t having a great year at 3-3, but the losses are more than respectable coming at Cal, at Alabama and at Auburn. The Rebels are coming off of a blowout win against Vandy last week where they put up over 600 yards in 57-35 win.
Iowa State at Texas Tech (-6.5)
I am very happy with Texas Tech for bailing me out last week. I had West Virginia (-3.5) at home and thought that I was doomed once the Red Raiders went up 35-17. Somehow the Mountaineers went on to score the next 29 points in a row and covered the game. I feel lucky that I learned off of a winning ticket that Texas Tech is a pretty good team even though it blew that lead last week.
Meanwhile, ISU is flying high after that huge upset win over Oklahoma two weeks ago and after battering Kansas at home last week. This feels like a come down to earth game for the Cyclones.
Lock of the Week
Oklahoma State at Texas (+7)
The only stat you need to know is that Tom Herman is 13-0 as an underdog since being the OC at Ohio State, and subsequently the head coach at Houston and now Texas.
It feels like a long time since the Longhorns were upset at home by Maryland. Since that loss in the opener Texas is 4-2, with the only losses being by 3 to USC in overtime and 5 to Oklahoma last weekend.
Oklahoma State gets a ton of love for its offense that puts up 48 PPG and it’s deserved, but if you look at what its done this year overall it isn’t all that impressive. The Cowboys have blasted 2-5 Tulsa, 2-4 South Alabama, 2-5 Pitt, 0-6 Baylor and also won by 7 at Texas Tech. The Cowboys lost at home to TCU by 13. In summary, Okie State blew out 4 teams with a combined 6-20 record, beat a team less talented than Texas by 7, and lost by 13th to the only nationally ranked team it faced. This spread is much more indicative of OSU’s points per game and not what it has done on the field.