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College Football Betting Picks, Week 7: We Are Going to Make the Picks Beautiful!!!

NCAA Football: Arizona State at Colorado Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports

The lock of the week has been on a roll and we will try to get back to our winning ways with the overall record now too!

Last Week: 2-3

Overall: 14-15-1

Lock of the Week Overall: 4-2

Boston College (+22) at Louisville

From the perspective of BC fans things are not going well at the Heights. However, from the perspective of Vegas everything has already come together and it looks beautiful! Or at least above mediocre for the time being! The Eagles have won the last three games against the spread (ATS) and are on a little bit on a mini roll from that perspective.

These big spreads are just the spot where wiseguys like to back Addazio. Since arriving at BC, Addazio is 9-5 ATS when the Eagles are catching 14 or more points as an underdog. While the Eagles are just 2-12 straight up in those games, Addazio has found a way to keep the score close, mostly by punting in opponents’ territory. I’m slightly terrified to do it, but I will back the Eagles here based on Addazio’s history in these spots.

TCU at Kansas State (+6.5)

Quarterback Jesse Ertz is expected to miss this game for KSU which is a little bit of a bummer, but all reports suggest that backup quarterback Alex Delton is actually a better runner than Ertz. That skill trait is very important for the QB in Bill Snyder’s offense.

At 2-3, KSU is a bit of a disappointment this year but I am encouraged that it took an improved Texas team to overtime last week on the road. Snyder is 10-1 in his last 11 at home, so I think there is some value here getting 6 at home.

Ohio State at Nebraska (+24.5)

This is the largest that Nebraska has ever been a home underdog. On top of that, the Huskers have never been larger than a 14 point underdog at home. Last week, Wisconsin went to Lincoln and won by 21, and without sounding like Steve Addazio, that game was closer than you think. The game was actually tied late in the third quarter at 17, but a few bad turnovers launched Wisconsin into a 21 point win. I think the Huskers will feel disrespected and find a way to cover.

Texas Tech at West Virginia (-3)

Texas Tech popped into the AP Top 25 this week and I have no idea way because its four wins came over Eastern Washington, Arizona State, Houston and Kansas. As I’ll mention in a moment I do really like that ASU team, but the win came when star RB Demario Richard was out of the lineup.

West Virginia is 3-2 and has also grabbed wins against pretty light competition. The Mountaineers actually outgained TCU by over 100 yards last week and got more first downs, but lost the game by 7. If WVU had won that game I think we are looking at more like a 6 or 7 point line this week.

I think these two teams are even at best and I think WV is a little better. Give me WV’s awesome home field advantage and mix it in with a long trip to Morgantown from Lubbock and this sounds like a 7 point Mountaineer victory.

Lock of the Week

Washington at Arizona State (+17.5)

ASU is probably one of the best teams in the country out of the group of teams with a losing record. While the Sun Devils are just 2-3 they do have a nice win over Oregon, and kept three losses within 7-10 points on the road against Stanford and Texas Tech, and at home against a San Diego State team that might finish undefeated this year. The Sun Devils have a really good backfield duo of Demario Richard and Kalen Ballage and a steady quarterback, Manny Wilkins, who is averaging almost 300 yards a game passing and had a 4-to-1 TD/INTO ratio.

This 17.5 point line represents the largest home underdog for ASU since 1996 back when Jake “The Snake” Plummer was the quarterback and we all know what happened then. The Sun Devils cover and make it three straight wins ATS. It wouldn’t be the craziest thing to sprinkle a little on the ASU moneyline as well because I think Todd Graham will go all in to get this win and get off the hot seat.