We all have our opinions on the current state of Boston College football, with the majority of us believing that the team is on the fast track to nowhere. The offense is a complete mess, the Eagles aren’t competitive for four quarters against anyone in the ACC, and fans are completely disengaged. But let’s take our personal opinions out of this and look at just the raw numbers and see if they support our hypothesis on BC football.
Using Bill C’s brilliant system of analysis he continually breaks down all data regarding teams. For this post we are just going to focus on win expectancy. What does that entail you may ask?
Win Expectancy. Also within the "last year's schedule and results" section, you'll find me using what I'm calling here "Win Expectancy." This communicates how frequently a team would have won a specific game given that game's primary stats. It is intended to say "Given your success rates, big plays, field position components, turnovers, etc., you could have expected to win this game X% of the time." It has nothing to do with pre-game projections or opponent adjustments.
Now let’s see what BC’s win expectancy is against their remaining opponents
- Louisville Cardinals: 9%
- Virginia Cavaliers: 16%
- Florida State Seminoles: 9%
- N.C. State Wolfpack: 19%
- UConn Huskies: 62%
- Syracuse Orange: 22%
BC is favored to win just one more game, and the other five’s chances look pretty grim. That is not a good sign for the future, and gives credence to the belief that this year is a lost cause. Prospects appear even more bleak when you look at the odds for final wins for the Eagles.
2 wins: 16%
3 wins: 42%
4 wins: 30%
5 wins: 10%
6 wins: 2%
7 wins: 0%
Connolly’s win expectancy gives BC an 88% chance that they are going to win four games or less. Bowling seems like a pipe dream at this point, and a repeat of 2015 with no ACC wins seems more likely than not. Steve Addazio may think this is all going to come together beautifully, but all signs point to that not happening this year. The bigger question will be whether he is going to see the next step in 2018.