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The Book 2016: Week 2

A first look at a new method. Not all games are created equal. Houston our first #1. Eagles big favorite vs UMadd at Gillette.

At least for a week, the Coogs are #1
At least for a week, the Coogs are #1
Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports

The Declaration of Independence tells us that all men are created equal, but as we know in college football, not all teams are equal and therefore, not all games are equal either.  This can be looked at in several different lights.

It is pretty easy when analyzing a schedule and comparing games against say Florida State or Clemson, as opposed to Georgia Tech or NC State, and then against Wagner, to say that the teams you are comparing are at three distinct tiers.  But it is also just as true that games early in the season shouldn't carry the same weight as those in the middle of the season or at the end of the season.  Let's call that one, the Texas A&M theory, where the Aggies come out flying every year (this year being no exception) and then tail off as the season progresses.

In the words of former Cardinal and Viking coach Dennis Green, "they are who we thought they were", at least until the next week!

Teams are not equal and neither are they the same as the season progresses.  Pre-season polls tell us that too.  Rare is the case that even the majority of teams in the pre-season top 10 wind up there at seasons end.

So this year, we are going address both the former and the latter as we look at our poll through the eyes of the College Football Playoff selection committee and the Book.

It is about both who you beat and when you beat them this year as we seek to rank the best in the land, so while I think it is pretty clear after week 1 that Alabama may be the best team in the country, the truth is that several teams had better wins that Bama in week 1 and therefore in our brave new world, are ranked higher than the Tide.

The poll then is solely based on what you have done year to date and then we are using a multiplier that increases as the season goes along to increase value to games week after week.  In week one of course, that doesn't matter, only one data point, but as the season moves along, it should have an impact..we shall see!

After week 1 then, the Houston Cougars are the number 1 team in the country, leveraging the win over preseason #2 Oklahoma to that top spot.  Our other playoff teams, should the season have ended after the first week would be #2 Wisconsin, #3 Florida State and #4 Texas, with afforementioned A&M Aggies, Alabama, Georgia, Clemson, South Alabama (I told you this would be weird to start with!) and BYU rounding out the top 10.

BC's loss means that the Eagles must be below all the teams who started out with a win of any sort.  The Eagles check in at #107 this week and although they are undoubtedly nowhere near that from a power rating perspective, as Bill Parcells says, "you are what your record says you are", or in this case, what your record says, who you played and when you played them.

Speaking of power ratings, the Book didn't do so well in week 1, struggling to its worst opening week in some time, but a lot of time to recover.  The Book is very bullish on BC this week, picking the Eagles as 21.6 point favorites over the Minutemen.

Take a look at the new ratings below...be patient..don't panic and tell me I am nuts..and let's see how things sort out over the next three months!

Enjoy the games and Go Eagles!

Note:  the Massey composite rankings are as of Tuesday afternoon, September 6.

CFP COMMITTEE STYLE RANKING
RANK TEAM RECORD MASSEY SAGARIN
1 Houston Cougars 1-0 7 17
2 Wisconsin Badgers 1-0 13 22
3 Florida State Seminoles 1-0 4 5
4 Texas Longhorns 1-0 38 27
5 Texas A&M Aggies 1-0 26 12
6 Alabama Crimson Tide 1-0 1 1
7 Georgia Bulldogs 1-0 10 18
8 Clemson Tigers 1-0 3 3
9 South Alabama Jaguars 1-0 86 96
10 BYU Cougars 1-0 34 41
11 Western Michigan Broncos 1-0 42 45
12 Stanford Cardinal 1-0 5 7
13 West Virginia Mountaineers 1-0 32 34
14 Southern Miss Golden Eagles 1-0 56 68
15 Army Black Knights 1-0 93 74
16 South Carolina Gamecocks 1-0 72 62
17 Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets 1-0 57 40
18 Tennessee Volunteers 1-0 9 15
19 Washington Huskies 1-0 18 9
20 Wyoming Cowboys 1-0 101 109
21 Minnesota Golden Gophers 1-0 60 57
22 Toledo Rockets 1-0 27 49
23 TCU Horned Frogs 1-0 12 11
24 Ohio State Buckeyes 1-0 2 2
25 Arkansas Razorbacks 1-0 23 30
26 Tulsa Golden Hurricane 1-0 70 72
27 Colorado Buffaloes 1-0 65 48
28 Texas State Bobcats 1-0 107 116
29 Nebraska Cornhuskers 1-0 36 25
30 Western Kentucky Hilltoppers 1-0 31 60
31 Penn State Nittany Lions 1-0 44 43
32 Boise State Broncos 1-0 30 21
33 Ball State Cardinals 1-0 100 103
34 Indiana Hoosiers 1-0 59 53
35 Iowa Hawkeyes 1-0 19 23
36 Arizona State Sun Devils 1-0 48 35
37 N.C. State Wolfpack 1-0 50 33
38 Wake Forest Demon Deacons 1-0 87 87
39 Michigan Wolverines 1-0 6 6
40 Texas-El Paso Miners 1-0 105 108
41 SMU Mustangs 1-0 103 102
42 Louisville Cardinals 1-0 21 24
43 Florida Gators 1-0 28 26
44 Purdue Boilermakers 1-0 91 82
45 Pittsburgh Panthers 1-0 40 38
46 Florida Atlantic Owls 1-0 104 106
47 New Mexico Lobos 1-0 88 92
48 San Diego State Aztecs 1-0 35 55
49 Miami-Florida Hurricanes 1-0 41 28
50 Baylor Bears 1-0 11 14
51 Oklahoma State Cowboys 1-0 17 16
52 Michigan State Spartans 1-0 16 39
53 Oregon Ducks 1-0 22 36
54 South Florida Bulls 1-0 45 54
55 Utah Utes 1-0 20 31
56 Virginia Tech Hokies 1-0 43 42
57 Texas Tech Red Raiders 1-0 52 37
58 California Golden Bears 1-0 47 58
59 Duke Blue Devils 1-0 55 44
60 Cincinnati Bearcats 1-0 64 70
61 Utah State Aggies 1-0 71 63
62 Illinois Fighting Illini 1-0 67 59
63 Navy Midshipmen 1-0 29 51
64 Syracuse Orange 1-0 78 73
65 Georgia Southern Eagles 1-0 53 86
66 Marshall Thundering Herd 0-0 61 84
67 (tie) Maryland Terrapins 1-0 80 79
67 (tie) Memphis Tigers 1-0 49 75
69 Central Michigan Chippewas 1-0 68 85
70 East Carolina Pirates 1-0 73 69
71 Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders 1-0 75 67
72 Air Force Falcons 1-0 74 80
73 Connecticut Huskies 1-0 85 97
74 Nevada Wolf Pack 1-0 89 94
75 Kansas Jayhawks 1-0 109 89
76 UNLV Rebels 1-0 106 99
77 UCF Knights 1-0 112 90
78 Akron Zips 1-0 81 100
79 Troy Trojans 1-0 94 101
80 Old Dominion Monarchs 1-0 108 117
81 Eastern Michigan Eagles 1-0 123 124
82 Idaho Vandals 1-0 113 118
83 Texas-San Antonio Roadrunners 1-0 119 122
84 ULM Warhawks 1-0 124 127
85 USC Trojans 0-1 33 32
86 Auburn Tigers 0-1 37 20
87 Ole Miss Rebels 0-1 15 10
88 Appalachian St. Mountaineers 0-1 54 65
89 Kansas State Wildcats 0-1 62 46
90 Bowling Green Falcons 0-1 66 91
91 Hawaii Warriors 0-2 125 123
92 Rutgers Scarlet Knights 0-1 95 93
93 Oklahoma Sooners 0-1 8 4
94 North Carolina Tar Heels 0-1 25 29
95 Miami-Ohio Redhawks 0-1 122 113
96 Charlotte 49ers 0-1 128 128
97 Notre Dame Fighting Irish 0-1 24 19
98 UCLA Bruins 0-1 39 13
99 Massachusetts Minutemen 0-1 116 104
100 Fresno State Bulldogs 0-1 120 107
101 Louisiana Tech Bulldogs 0-1 69 77
102 Louisiana Ragin Cajuns 0-1 114 111
103 LSU Tigers 0-1 14 8
104 Kent State Golden Flashes 0-1 121 119
105 Missouri Tigers 0-1 76 61
106 Arizona Wildcats 0-1 63 47
107 Boston College Eagles 0-1 83 56
108 Oregon State Beavers 0-1 102 76
109 Northwestern Wildcats 0-1 46 50
110 Vanderbilt Commodores 0-1 82 71
111 FIU Panthers 0-1 115 121
112 Tulane Green Wave 0-1 118 114
113 Colorado State Rams 0-1 99 105
114 Rice Owls 0-1 111 112
115 Iowa St. Cyclones 0-1 97 78
116 Arkansas State Red Wolves 0-1 79 95
117 Kentucky Wildcats 0-1 90 66
118 San Jose State Spartans 0-1 98 110
119 North Texas Mean Green 0-1 127 126
120 Virginia Cavaliers 0-1 96 81
121 Northern Illinois Huskies 0-1 84 88
122 New Mexico State Aggies 0-1 126 125
123 Temple Owls 0-1 77 83
124 Georgia State Panthers 0-1 110 115
125 Mississippi St. Bulldogs 0-1 51 52
126 Ohio University Bobcats 0-1 92 98
127 Washington State Cougars 0-1 58 64
128 Buffalo Bulls 0-1 117 120

THE ACC/CFP RANKINGS
RANK TEAM REC MASSEY SAGARIN
1 Florida State 1-0 4 5
2 Clemson 1-0 3 3
3 Georgia Tech 1-0 57 40
4 North Carolina State 1-0 50 33
5 Wake Forest 1-0 87 87
6 Louisville 1-0 21 24
7 Pittsburgh 1-0 40 38
8 Miami 1-0 41 28
9 Virginia Tech 1-0 43 42
10 Duke 1-0 55 44
11 Syracuse 1-0 78 73
12 North Carolina 0-1 25 29
13 Boston College 0-1 83 56
14 Virginia 0-1 96 81

Records shown against the Vegas spread (starting next week) utilize the Danny Sheridan opening line.  The spreads below are ones created by the Book.

Season record:  Won 12 Lost 28 Tied 1 .305 winning percentage


NATIONAL/ACC SPREADS
FAVORITE SPREAD UNDERDOG
Louisville 11.1 at Syracuse
NC State 6.4 at East Carolina
at Pittsburgh 3.1 Penn State
at Michigan 35.0 C Florida
Boston College 21.6 at UMass
at Oklahoma St 18.6 C Michigan
at Clemson 39.1 Troy
at Ohio State 28.5 Tulsa
at Wisconsin 28.5 Akron
at Duke 8.8 Wake Forest
at Notre Dame 28.4 Nevada
at Florida 11.9 Kentucky
at Alabama 28.9 W Kentucky
at Baylor 27.8 SMU
at Washington 46.1 Idaho
at Miami FL 27.0 Florida Atlantic
at Oklahoma 50.1 Louisiana Monroe
at TCU 9.3 Arkansas
at Iowa 19.6 Iowa St.
at Texas 30.8 UTEP
Tennessee 10.5 Virginia Tech
at UCLA 25.9 UNLV
at Oregon 18.9 Virginia