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The Book 2016: Week 4

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The two early favorites for the national title game go to the top of our poll. Eagles drop, but still massive favorite using Sagarin numbers vs Wagner.

Urban Meyer looking up at only Bama in this week's Book CFP style poll
Urban Meyer looking up at only Bama in this week's Book CFP style poll
Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports

Through three weeks of the college football season, there seems to be little controversy around who the top three teams in the country are.  Alabama, Ohio State and now the Louisville Cardinals have somewhat separated themselves from a tier of teams like Clemson, Houston, Stanford and Michigan at roughly the quarter point of the 2016 season.

That would be the way our CFP committee style Book ranking as well as our Book power poll see it too.

The CFP method we are using this year that evaluates your wins and losses to date lists the Tide #1, OSU #2, with Louisville #5 behind Texas A&M and Houston.

The Power poll version of the Book lists #1 Ohio State, #2 Alabama, #3 Louisville, #4 Michigan and #5 Stanford.  So far, I think so good!

Not surprisingly we had another week of massive swings in ratings by looking at it this way, but we now do see how strength of your wins and losses is more important than just won/loss record.  FSU, albeit destroyed by Louisville, California, UCLA, Texas, North Carolina, LSU, South Carolina, Pittsburgh, TCU and Penn State all have greater rankings than at least one (and in most cases more than one), undefeated team, so we are starting to see how this can morph over time.

One of the interesting comparisons this week are our own Boston College Eagles, who not surprisingly took a precipitous drop all the way down to #97, interestingly seven spots behind the UMass Minutemen at #90, who they handled pretty easily just two weeks ago.

Foul you call! Well perhaps, but not in the context we are looking at it here.

In the power poll, BC sits significantly above UMass. The Eagles at #77 and the Minutemen at #119, much more in line with what you would expect if we were just talking who is better.  If the two teams happened to play again, right now BC would be a 16 1/2 point favorite on a neutral field, but when you strictly compare resumes to date, the Book actually views UMass' one win over FIU and two losses to BC and to Florida as slightly more impressive than BC's win over UMass and its two losses to Virginia Tech and Georgia Tech.  Arguable, well of course, but the margin between the two is razor thin.

As you may know, the Book doesn't produce spreads for FBS vs FCS games, so to make sure we don't lose out on capturing those results, we use the Sagarin ratings and point spreads to account for those games.  That said, say hello to Howard 2016 version as Boston College is a 46.8 point favorite over this year's punching bag, Wagner.

The Seahawks are ranked #234 out of 253 FCS programs, so very similar to Howard who was #236 in the Sagarin poll when they played BC last year and entered the game a 44.7 point underdog.

Take a look as well at the top of the poll in particular, where there is beginning to be more agreement with our method and the Sagarin and Massey polls, week by week.  We will get there!

The Book enjoyed the ultimate so-so week..exactly .500 at 26-26-1.  So while the percentage improved, we didn't cut into the sub .500 deficit for the year now at 47.1 percent through three weeks.

Enjoy the games and Go Eagles!

Note:  the Massey composite rankings are as of Tuesday night, September 20.

CFP COMMITTEE STYLE RANKING
RANK TEAM RECORD MASSEY SAGARIN
1 Alabama Crimson Tide 3-0 1 2
2 Ohio State Buckeyes 3-0 2 1
3 Texas A&M Aggies 3-0 9 6
4 Houston Cougars 3-0 4 11
5 Louisville Cardinals 3-0 6 4
6 Wisconsin Badgers 3-0 13 29
7 Georgia Bulldogs 3-0 20 50
8 Stanford Cardinal 2-0 3 3
9 Tennessee Volunteers 3-0 8 16
10 Arkansas Razorbacks 3-0 10 20
11 Nebraska Cornhuskers 3-0 18 21
12 Michigan Wolverines 3-0 5 5
13 Central Michigan Chippewas 3-0 42 64
14 Utah Utes 3-0 22 37
15 Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets 3-0 43 39
16 Western Michigan Broncos 3-0 34 38
17 Clemson Tigers 3-0 7 9
18 Michigan State Spartans 2-0 14 28
19 Army Black Knights 3-0 62 51
20 Arizona State Sun Devils 3-0 39 47
21 San Diego State Aztecs 3-0 27 52
22 West Virginia Mountaineers 2-0 28 35
23 Florida State Seminoles 2-1 16 13
24 Miami-Florida Hurricanes 3-0 19 17
25 Boise State Broncos 2-0 23 23
26 South Florida Bulls 3-0 26 34
27 Florida Gators 3-0 24 18
28 Wake Forest Demon Deacons 3-0 67 72
29 California Golden Bears 2-1 44 53
30 Toledo Rockets 3-0 30 40
31 Texas Longhorns 2-1 46 33
32 UCLA Bruins 2-1 29 14
33 Navy Midshipmen 3-0 38 60
34 Washington Huskies 3-0 11 8
35 Maryland Terrapins 3-0 65 71
36 Baylor Bears 3-0 12 15
37 Indiana Hoosiers 2-0 59 55
38 North Carolina Tar Heels 2-1 25 30
39 LSU Tigers 2-1 17 12
40 Minnesota Golden Gophers 2-0 55 56
41 South Carolina Gamecocks 2-1 70 63
42 Georgia Southern Eagles 3-0 56 85
43 Pittsburgh Panthers 2-1 49 42
44 Memphis Tigers 2-0 47 58
45 Troy Trojans 2-1 73 82
46 TCU Horned Frogs 2-1 31 24
47 Penn State Nittany Lions 2-1 52 48
48 Air Force Falcons 2-0 58 68
49 Western Kentucky Hilltoppers 2-1 48 59
50 Virginia Tech Hokies 2-1 40 32
51 East Carolina Pirates 2-1 71 62
52 Akron Zips 2-1 78 95
53 Cincinnati Bearcats 2-1 61 66
54 Tulsa Golden Hurricane 2-1 66 65
55 Colorado Buffaloes 2-1 57 43
56 Rutgers Scarlet Knights 2-1 83 94
57 Oklahoma State Cowboys 2-1 33 31
58 Kansas State Wildcats 1-1 45 27
59 Wyoming Cowboys 2-1 95 107
60 Texas Tech Red Raiders 2-1 53 46
61 Oregon Ducks 2-1 32 36
62 Iowa Hawkeyes 2-1 35 19
63 USC Trojans 1-2 37 25
64 Louisiana Ragin Cajuns 2-1 99 110
65 Nevada Wolf Pack 2-1 87 87
66 Texas State Bobcats 1-1 105 116
67 Utah State Aggies 2-1 76 77
68 SMU Mustangs 2-1 93 97
69 Connecticut Huskies 2-1 79 89
70 Southern Miss Golden Eagles 2-1 72 80
71 N.C. State Wolfpack 2-1 60 44
72 BYU Cougars 1-2 50 49
73 Arizona Wildcats 2-1 68 69
74 Auburn Tigers 1-2 41 26
75 Ball State Cardinals 2-1 91 91
76 Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders 2-1 77 73
77 Appalachian St. Mountaineers 1-2 69 75
78 Eastern Michigan Eagles 2-1 115 125
79 Colorado State Rams 2-1 90 102
80 Oklahoma Sooners 1-2 15 7
81 Purdue Boilermakers 1-1 98 93
82 Notre Dame Fighting Irish 1-2 36 22
83 Oregon State Beavers 1-1 89 76
84 Ole Miss Rebels 1-2 21 10
85 Mississippi St. Bulldogs 1-2 51 45
86 Missouri Tigers 1-2 63 54
87 Vanderbilt Commodores 1-2 81 70
88 Syracuse Orange 1-2 86 79
89 Florida Atlantic Owls 1-2 111 114
90 Massachusetts Minutemen 1-2 114 108
91 Idaho Vandals 1-2 122 127
92 South Alabama Jaguars 1-2 103 106
93 Marshall Thundering Herd 1-1 82 88
94 Ohio University Bobcats 1-2 85 81
95 Hawaii Warriors 1-3 121 120
96 Fresno State Bulldogs 1-2 109 105
97 Boston College Eagles 1-2 84 74
98 UCF Knights 1-2 107 90
99 Illinois Fighting Illini 1-2 87 83
100 Kentucky Wildcats 1-2 94 84
101 Texas-El Paso Miners 1-2 120 121
102 UNLV Rebels 1-2 104 98
103 ULM Warhawks 1-2 116 119
104 Northwestern Wildcats 1-2 64 57
105 Louisiana Tech Bulldogs 1-2 75 78
106 Bowling Green Falcons 1-2 92 104
107 San Jose State Spartans 1-2 97 100
108 Old Dominion Monarchs 1-2 113 115
109 Washington State Cougars 1-2 54 41
110 New Mexico State Aggies 1-2 125 124
111 North Texas Mean Green 1-2 127 123
112 Tulane Green Wave 1-2 101 99
113 Texas-San Antonio Roadrunners 1-2 112 117
114 Charlotte 49ers 1-2 128 128
115 Duke Blue Devils 1-2 80 67
116 Temple Owls 1-2 74 61
117 Iowa St. Cyclones 0-3 108 92
118 Kansas Jayhawks 1-2 123 111
119 New Mexico Lobos 1-2 106 103
120 Kent State Golden Flashes 1-2 119 118
121 Northern Illinois Huskies 0-3 96 96
122 Rice Owls 0-3 118 112
123 Arkansas State Red Wolves 0-3 102 101
124 Georgia State Panthers 0-3 110 109
125 Virginia Cavaliers 0-3 100 86
126 Miami-Ohio Redhawks 0-3 117 113
127 Buffalo Bulls 0-2 124 122
128 FIU Panthers 0-3 126 126

THE ACC/CFP RANKINGS
RANK TEAM REC MASSEY SAGARIN
1 Louisville 3-0
4
2 Georgia Tech 3-0
39
3 Clemson 3-0
9
4 Florida State 2-1
13
5 Miami 3-0
17
6 Wake Forest 3-0
72
7 North Carolina 2-1
30
8 Pittsburgh 2-1
42
9 Virginia Tech 2-1
32
10 North Carolina State 2-1
44
11 Syracuse 1-2
79
12 Boston College 1-2
74
13 Duke 1-2
67
14 Virginia 0-3
86

Records shown against the Vegas spread (starting next week) utilize the Danny Sheridan opening line.  The spreads below are ones created by the Book.

Week Record:  Won 26 Lost 26 Tied 1 .500 winning percentage
Season Record:  Won 65 Lost 73 Tied 2 .471 winning percentage


NATIONAL/ACC SPREADS
FAVORITE SPREAD UNDERDOG
Clemson 4.4 at Georgia Tech
Washington 13.4 at Arizona
Stanford 3.4 at UCLA
Boise State 11.7 at Oregon State
at Alabama 50.8 Kent State
LSU 1.5 at Auburn
at Mississippi 5.4 Georgia
at Tennessee 9.7 Florida
Texas A&M 8.4 Arkansas
at Baylor 11.3 Oklahoma State
Central Michigan 8.2 at Virginia
Florida State 2.3 at South Florida
at North Carolina 13.5 Pittsburgh
at Connecticut 4.7 Syracuse
at Virginia Tech 15.2 East Carolina
at Indiana 2.1 Wake Forest
at Michigan 19.7 Penn State
at Michigan State 5.3 Wisconsin
at Notre Dame 19.0 Duke
Houston 41.6 Texas State
Nebraska 9.9 at Northwestern
Louisville 26.8 at Marshall
Army 16.6 at Buffalo