Last Week: 2-3
Lock of the Week: 2-0
Boston College (+6.5) at Virginia Tech
I actually like Virginia Tech to win this game, but 6.5 is a huge amount of points to give the BC defense and the slow paced BC offense. Want a stat to prove it? In games when BC plays FBS teams the under has hit 13 of the last 14 times.
Temple (+9) at Penn State
This game is usually a "circle the calendar game" for Temple going into the season, while for Penn State it’s more of a "okkkkkkkkkk I’ll stop procrastinating and clean out the basement" type of game.
Where this game sits on the calendar really helps Temple because it’s a sandwich game for Penn State. Last weekend, the Nittany Lions had an emotional rivalry game with Pitt and next weekend they have a showdown with Michigan. There is a good chance that Penn State overlooks the Owls.
The strength of Temple is its defense so I’m grabbing the points here.
Virginia (+4.5) at UConn
According to Phil Steele, UConn’s home field advantage is worth 3.25 points, so basically Vegas is telling me that they are giving me a point if this matchup was on a neutral field. I know that Virginia is 0-2, but I do love their new coach Bronco Mendenhall.
BC fans often complain about Steve Addazio’s clock management, and rightfully so. If it makes you feel any better though, the team down in Storrs seems to have the same issue. I don’t know what is funnier, Bob Diaco’s actual clock management (go to the 2:00 mark) or the UConn coach doubling down on his horrendous coaching decision.
Florida State (-1.5) at Louisville
I saw this game as high as 3.5 earlier in the week, but it has since come down to 1.5, so I actually want to thank everyone who is betting on Louisville and knocking the number down for me.
I fully understand that College Gameday is in Louisville this weekend and the crowd is going crazy. I also fully understand that Derwin James is out for the ‘Noles. I also fully understand that Lamar Jackson is the sexy sleeper pick for the Heisman right now.
Here’s the thing though. Jackson isn’t going to hurdling FSU defenders like he did against Syracuse unless he wants to get decapitated. I don’t think he will have the same success on the ground and it will be similar to the game last year where he had 32 yards on 19 carries against the ‘Noles.
The other thing for me is that I can’t get that Ole Miss/FSU game out of my head. FSU freshman quarterback Deondre Francois was just so poised in that huge comeback that it reminded me of Jameis Winston leading the ‘Noles from behind a few years ago. Even if FSU falls behind early I have evidence that Francois can lead them back.
Lock of the Week
Ohio State (-1) at Oklahoma
Before the season I probably wouldn’t have touched this game. However, after the Houston game I’m loving OSU. Why? The tape is out there of how Houson made OU quarterback Baker Mayfield completely one-dimensional and I know that Greg Schiano can replicate that game plan. I don't see how OU will be run at all to be honest.
On the flip side, I don’t know if anyone has an answer for J.T. Barrett now.
Even if all things were equal I will always take Urban Meyer over "Big Game" Bob.