If you are not aware, ESPN has this lovely little tool called the Football Power Index that they use to predict how a college football team will fare in the upcoming season. ESPN creates this by running a computer simulation 1,000 times and giving matchups a probability of outcome based on the results of those sims.
Going into the 2016 season, Boston College was given an FPI projection of anywhere from 5.7-6.3 wins for this upcoming season. Not at all a total surprise given the amount of talent on the defensive side of the ball, and the improvements we expect to see on offense. Below you can find the individual matchups and what the odds the FPI gives BC to win those matchups.
9/3- Georgia Tech. Projected Win-Loss: 47.3%
9/10 @UMass. Projected Win Win-Loss: 92.4%
9/17 @Virginia Tech Projected Win-Loss 31.5%
9/24 Wagner Projected Win-Loss 99.6%
10/1 Buffalo Projected Win-Loss 91.7%
10/7 Clemson Projected Win-Loss 11.8%
10/22 Syracuse Projected Win-Loss 70.4%
10/29 @N.C. State Projected Win-Loss 33.4%
11/5 Louisville Projected Win-Loss 25.8
11/11 @Florida State Projected Win-Loss 4.5%
11/19 UConn Projected Win-Loss 74.4%
11/26 @Wake Forest Projected Win-Loss 46.6%
Just looking at these projections, and my first thought is: that sounds about right. Going into this season I thought Georgia Tech and Wake Forest were both going to be toss up games. Normally I would like BC against WF, but it's on the road, and that should lower any projections of a win. Two of the matchups that I thought were a little low, were Virginia Tech and N.C. State. True both teams beat BC last season, but Addazio has shown that he can beat both of these teams, and if BC can get their offense going I'd expect them to be in both of these games.
In terms of games that look a little too lenient with the Eagles I would look at the Syracuse game. New coach, very little offense and a depleted defense, but the Orange are ready for this game. I think it may be tougher than it looks.
What do you think? Do these odds look right? Or do you think they should be higher/lower. Leave your thoughts in the comment section.