Hockey East Playoff Scenarios Entering Final Weekend

This weekend went about as well as possible for Boston College. The Eagles swept the Catamounts while Notre Dame got swept by Providence. The end result is that the Eagles go in to the final weekend with a 2 point lead on Providence and a 3 point lead on Notre Dame for first place in Hockey East. Let's break down all the possible playoff scenarios.

First, the standings, plus the teams' range of possible finishing positions

BC - 14-1-5, 33 points [1-3]
PC - 14-3-3, 31 points [1-3]
ND - 14-4-2, 30 points [1-5]
BU - 11-5-4, 26 points [3-5]
UML - 11-5-4, 26 points [4-5]
NU - 8-8-4, 20 points [6]
UVM - 6-11-3, 15 points [7-10]
UNH - 4-10-6, 14 points [7-11]
MC - 3-10-7, 13 points [7-11]
UM - 5-13-2, 12 points [7-11]
UC - 4-12-4, 12 points [7-12]
UMA - 2-14-4, 8 points [11-12]

Scenarios

For Boston College

BC clinches the Hockey East regular season title outright with:
--3 points vs. UMass Lowell
--2 points vs. UMass Lowell AND PC with 3 points or fewer vs. UMass
--1 point vs. UMass Lowell AND PC with 2 points or fewer v s. UMass AND ND with 3 or fewer points vs. BU
--0 points vs. UMass Lowell AND PC with 1 point or fewer vs. UMass AND ND with 2 or fewer points vs. BU

BC clinches a share of the Hockey East regular season title and the #1 playoff seed with:
--2 points vs. UMass Lowell AND PC with 4 points vs. UMass
--1 point vs. UMass Lowell AND PC with 3 points vs. UMass AND ND with 3 or fewer points vs. BU

BC clinches a share of the Hockey East regular season title and the #2 playoff seed with:
--1 point vs. UMass Lowell AND ND with 4 points vs. BU AND PC with 2 or fewer points vs. UMass

BC clinches a share of the Hockey East regular season title and the #3 playoff seed with:
--1 point vs. UMass Lowell AND ND with 4 points vs. BU AND PC with 3 points vs. UMass

BC clinches 2nd in Hockey East with:
--1 point vs. UMass Lowell AND ND with 3 points or fewer vs.BU

BC finishes 3rd in Hockey East with:
--1 point vs. UMass Lowell AND PC with 4 points vs. UMass AND ND with 4 points vs. BU  
--0 points vs. UMass Lowell AND PC with 3+ points vs. UMass AND ND with 3+ points vs. BU

For Providence

PC clinches the Hockey East regular season title outright with:
--4 points vs. UMass and BC with 1 or fewer points vs. UML
--3 points vs. UMass and BC with 0 points vs. UML

PC clinches a share of the regular season title + the #1 playoff seed with:
--3 points vs. UMass AND BC with 0-1 points vs. UML AND ND with 4 points vs. BU

PC clinches a share of the regular season title + the #2 playoff seed with:
--4 points vs. UMass and BC with 2 points vs. UMass Lowell
--3 points vs. UMass AND BC with 1 point vs. UMass Lowell AND ND with 3 or fewer points vs BU

PC clinches 2nd place with:
--3 points vs. UMass
--2 points vs. UMass AND ND with 3 or fewer points vs BU
--1 point vs. UMass AND ND with 2 or fewer points vs. BU
--0 points vs. UMass AND ND with 1 or fewer point vs. BU

For Notre Dame

ND clinches the HEA Regular Season title outright with:
-4 points vs. BU AND BC with 0 points vs. UML AND PC with 2 or fewer points vs. UMA

ND clinches a share of the HEA Regular Season title and #2 playoff seed with:
-4 points vs. BU AND BC with 1 or fewer point vs. UML AND PC with 3 points vs. UMass

ND clinches 2nd place with:
-4 points vs BU  AND PC with 2 or fewer points vs. UMass AND BC with 2+ points vs. UML

ND finishes 3rd with:
-1 or fewer point

ND finishes 5th with:
-0 points vs. BU, AND UML with 4 points vs. BC

For Boston University

BU finishes 3rd with:
--4 points vs. Notre Dame AND UML does not sweep BC*

BU clinches a first round bye & 4th place with:
--3 points vs. Notre Dame AND UML with 2 or fewer points vs. BC

*If BU and UML finish even on points and wins, who gets the bye will depend on who finishes 1st place and what the teams' record is against that team (that's the #3 tiebreaker)

BU cannot finish lower than 5th

For UMass Lowell

UML finishes 4th and clinches a first round bye with:

--More points on the weekend than BU gets against ND
--4 points vs. BC AND BU sweeps Notre Dame

UML cannot finish lower than 5th

Northeastern will finish 6th no matter what

For Vermont

UVM clinches 7th place with:
--3 points vs. Merrimack

UVM clinches at least home ice in the Octofinals (top 8) with:
--2 points vs. Merrimack
--1 point vs. Merrimack AND Maine does not sweep Northeastern
--0 points vs. Merrimack AND UNH gets 1 or fewer point vs. UConn

For UNH

UNH clinches at least home ice in the Octofinals (top 8) with:
--3 points vs. UConn
--2 points vs. UConn AND Merrimack with 3 or fewer points vs. UVM AND Maine does not sweep Northeastern
--1 point vs. UConn AND Merrimack splits with UVM AND Maine does not get 3+ points vs. Northeastern 
--0 points vs. UConn AND Merrimack with 1 or fewer point vs. UVM AND Maine does not get 2+ points vs. Northeastern

For Merrimack

Merrimack clinches at least home ice in the Octofinals (top 8) with:
--3 points vs. Vermont
(If they split vs. Vermont, no matter what happens in the UNH/UConn series, someone will finish ahead of them)

For Maine

Maine clinches at least home ice in the Octofinals (top 8) with:
--4 points vs. NU AND MC gets 3 or fewer points vs. UVM AND UNH gets 1 or fewer points vs. UConn

For UConn

UConn clinches at least home ice in the Octofinals (top 8) with:
--4 points vs. UNH AND Merrimack does not get exactly 3 points vs. Vermont
--3 points vs. UNH AND Maine gets 3 or fewer points vs. NU AND Merrimack gets 2 or fewer points vs. UVM

If UConn splits with UNH, UConn CAN NOT get in to the top 8

UConn clinches at least 11th place with:
-1 point vs. UNH OR
-UMass does not sweep Providence

For UMass

UMass avoids finishing in last place with:
--Sweep of Providence AND UConn swept by UNH