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BC Basketball: So You're Saying There's A Chance?

Eagles outlook to get off the schneid and notch an ACC win

By John Fidler
Eli Carter's head hurts thinking about the possibility of making ACC history
Eli Carter's head hurts thinking about the possibility of making ACC history
Mark L. Baer-USA TODAY Sports

You've all seen the tee shirts or certainly the slogan, "the beatings will continue until morale improves".  Certainly that has applied to the 2015-16 Men's Basketball season.  The inexperienced and now to boot, injured Eagles, have taken on arguably the most difficult conference schedule of any team in America and have twelve straight losses to show for it.

BC hasn't sniffed the sweet smell of victory since squeaking by New Hampshire on December 30, sporting a perfect oh for 2016 since.

Since that gasp and inhale win over the University of No Hardware, the "worst" team the Eagles have faced on their schedule according to the KenPom stats has been #60 Pittsburgh.  If your computer ranking system of choice happens to be Jeff Sagarin, the task was even taller as the Panthers are #40 this week and the worst of the best moniker falls to Florida State, the Seminoles being a "horrid" #41.

No easy task indeed.

Like the winter of 2014-15, which started off mild and ended with snow piles under overpasses in July, the Eagles are about to venture out of dark and cold and into a stretch where wins are actually a plausible outcome.

Starting with Wednesday's trip to Clemson, Boston College finishes the regular season with six games against teams ranked no HIGHER than #50/51 (Clemson) according to KenPom /Sagarin.

The other teams left:

  • Wake Forest, just one win in ACC play, #134 KenPom and #118 Sagarin
  • NC State, #73 KenPom and #60 Sagarin
  • Georgia Tech #76 KenPom and #66 Sagarin
  • Virginia Tech #106 KenPom and #103 Sagarin

Now keep in mind, BC ranks #247 according to KenPom and #206 according to Sagarin, that is dead last among all Power Five conference teams per Pomeroy and second only to Rutgers per Sagarin.  BC's best win over the year so far is over #176 KenPom/#156 Sagarin, Fordham at the Barclay's Center.  The Eagles don't own a win over another top 200 club this season, despite having losses to Santa Clara (#256) and UMass Lowell at #305!

Using Sagarin as the metric, a look at the point spreads for the rest of the season, based on position today.

  • February 17 - at Clemson -  Tigers by 16.4
  • February 21 - at Wake Forest - #TheRivalry by 9.3
  • February 24 - vs Virginia Tech - Hokies by 5
  • February 27 - vs Georgia Tech - Jackets by 8
  • March 2 - at NC State - Pack by 15
  • March 5 - vs Clemson - Tigers by 9.8
That Virginia Tech game at Conte just stands out as the best opportunity, although BC has certainly played better in its last two outings and outside of perhaps Clemson, none of these teams is in the mix for an NCAA tournament berth sans running the table at the ACC tournament.

And of course, there looms the ignominious distinction of being the first ACC team to go 0-18 in conference play, still sitting out there.

When will the Eagles get their first conference win?

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