I attempt to keep the hot streak going after a 5-0 performance last week!
Last Week: 5-0
Lock of the Week: 8-1
Louisville (-25) at Boston College
The Cardinals have had two lay down games this year against Duke and Virginia but they haven’t had back-to-back poor showings yet. When Louisville dogged it against Duke a few weeks ago they followed it up with a 41 point annihilation of NC State. Now they are fresh off barely beating Virginia and were "disrespected" by not being put in the top four of the newly released college football playoff rankings.
The Eagles played well against NC State and are riding high heading into this one. I’m still concerned about the defense’s ability to stop a high flying offense and Louisville won’t be a cure for that.
TCU (+9.5) at Baylor
It feels like Baylor continues to get a ton of respect based on what it has done the last few seasons. The reality of the situation is that the Bears are averaging a touchdown less than they averaged in 2015 and 2014 and 10 points less than they averaged in 2013. Also, of Baylor’s six wins this year only one (Oklahoma State) came against a team with a winning record.
TCU needs a W and I think they at least play Baylor tough.
Texas A&M at Mississippi State (+14)
On paper this looks like a total mismatch. The Aggies are fresh off being picked as the #4 team in the college football playoffs and the Bulldogs are a mediocre 3-5 this year.
Mississippi State is having a little bit of a down year, but their record isn’t as bad as you think. The Bulldogs lost to LSU by 3 and BYU by 7 in games they could’ve won in the 4th quarter.
Dan Mullin has a little bit of history on his side here as his squad is 5-1 in the last six games as a double digit dog.
Alabama at LSU (+7.5)
Sometimes it’s all about how a game falls on the schedule. If this game got played in September, Alabama probably would’ve won by a couple of touchdowns.
The setting has changed though. The LSU offense has been cranked up the last three games since Coach O took over scoring 42.5 points per game in that stretch.
Lock of the Week
Wisconsin at Northwestern (+6.5)
This is a keep playing the hot hand game. The Wildcats have covered 4 straight ATS and have won for me in two of those games during the streak.
Last week the Wildcats outplayed Ohio State on the road and came away with a four point loss. Now they get a Wisconsin team that had to grind out victories over Iowa and Nebraska the last two weeks. It’s a sleepy spot for Wisconsin with a noon kickoff at Northwestern against a team that has beaten them a few straight games. I say the ‘Cats win outright.