One week of games. That is all that remains between now and Selection Sunday when all the bowl pairings are announced as well of course as to who the participants are in the 3rd College Football Playoff.
To say that there may be a bit of chaos coming on Saturday night should a very plausible scenario play out is a bit of an understatement and may just have people yearning for a return to the BCS. I kid, but just a bit. The issue with the playoff now is that the committee is potentially faced with a scenario where a not only might a conference champion be left out (Penn State or Wisconsin), but it is not completely out of the realm of possibility that a conference, that being the Big 10, could conceivably send two teams to the playoff in Ohio State and Michigan, neither of which won their division of the league and of course, in the case of Michigan, finished 3rd in the East!
Nah, you say..well yeah I say.
With Michigan sitting 5th in the latest CFP rankings, all it would seemingly take would be a Washington or Clemson loss (Alabama and Ohio State are seemingly in regardless of the results this weekend) and having already defeated Penn State and Wisconsin and ranked above both of them, would very much be in line for that fourth spot.
It doesn't appear that teams like Colorado or Oklahoma have any shot and teams like Penn State and Wisconsin,very small ones.
Watching Kirby Hocutt sweat tonight, really unable to articulate what is by their own protocol described as art rather than science. For many, that is a tough way to process information and is made even more confusing by the term "unequivocably better" that they don't seem to want to use when comparing Penn State and Ohio State, although the Lions beat the Bucks. Now I am not a Penn State fan and I do think Ohio State is a better team and maybe feel alone is enough and they should leave it at that, but as has been argued often enough, "best vs most deserving", but by Miriam Webster dictionary definition alone "unequivocal - leaving no doubt"...yikes, doesn't there have to be some doubt? I mean they played and Penn State won.
In the Book poll this week, we still have our 1-4 of Alabama, Ohio State, Clemson and Wisconsin, the third week in a row those four remained the same. Last week we looked at using current rankings to justify where Michigan should sit rather than their resume being based on when they played a team, which allowed the Wolverines to rank fourth in that manner, with their wins over Colorado and Penn State now looking improved. Based on that look, which I really do think I like, the top four would be Alabama, Ohio State, Clemson and Washington, matching the committee, with Penn State, Wisconsin, Colorado and Michigan at 5-9.
The method we use, whether it is where a team ranks now or where they ranked then, also leverages the 13th data point. The committee (if you can trust them!!) began with this in year one when the Big 12 didn't have a title game or "one true champion" and that can't be ignored. In this poll, the teams playing in title games on Championship Weekend will get the advantage of having points added (or subtracted in case of a loss) which will in fact move them around in the rankings. It isn't a question of averaging in the results, so it is based on a per game number, we have been told that we evaluate the entire resume and in the case of the teams playing this week, that is a full one game more than others have.
BC rises this week following the win at Wake, sitting at #63 now a bit above what Massey and Sagarin have the Eagles.
Against the spread, amazing that after nearly 800 games being picked on the season, only 1 game to the good separates us from a .500 record.
Enjoy the games and Go Eagles!
Note: the Massey composite rankings are as of Tuesday evening, November 29.
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RANK | TEAM | RECORD | POWER | COMBINED | CFP | SAGARIN | MASSEY |
1 | Alabama Crimson Tide | 12-0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
2 | Ohio State Buckeyes | 11-1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
3 | Clemson Tigers | 11-1 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 |
4 | Wisconsin Badgers | 10-2 | 10 | 8 | 6 | 7 | 6 |
5 | Washington Huskies | 11-1 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 5 |
6 | USC Trojans | 9-3 | 4 | 5 | 11 | 9 | 9 |
7 | Colorado Buffaloes | 10-2 | 11 | 9 | 8 | 11 | 8 |
8 | Florida State Seminoles | 9-3 | 9 | 10 | 12 | 12 | 11 |
9 | Oklahoma Sooners | 9-2 | 6 | 11 | 9 | 6 | 10 |
10 | Penn State Nittany Lions | 10-2 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 14 | 7 |
11 | West Virginia Mountaineers | 9-2 | 21 | 16 | 16 | 21 | 17 |
12 | Oklahoma State Cowboys | 9-2 | 13 | 14 | 10 | 19 | 18 |
13 | Western Michigan Broncos | 12-0 | 26 | 28 | 17 | 22 | 12 |
14 | Michigan Wolverines | 10-2 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 4 |
15 | Stanford Cardinal | 9-3 | 24 | 13 | 18 | 16 | 14 |
16 | Virginia Tech Hokies | 9-3 | 17 | 15 | 23 | 20 | 22 |
17 | Navy Midshipmen | 9-2 | 23 | 25 | 19 | 39 | 25 |
18 | South Florida Bulls | 10-2 | 33 | 29 | - | 35 | 23 |
19 | Louisville Cardinals | 9-3 | 15 | 19 | 13 | 10 | 15 |
20 | Pittsburgh Panthers | 8-4 | 22 | 18 | 25 | 28 | 31 |
21 | Nebraska Cornhuskers | 9-3 | 50 | 31 | - | 34 | 26 |
22 | Florida Gators | 8-3 | 20 | 20 | 15 | 24 | 19 |
23 | Auburn Tigers | 8-4 | 19 | 21 | 14 | 13 | 16 |
24 | North Carolina Tar Heels | 8-4 | 25 | 23 | - | 27 | 33 |
25 | LSU Tigers | 7-4 | 12 | 12 | 21 | 8 | 13 |
26 | Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets | 8-4 | 30 | 26 | - | 45 | 38 |
27 | Washington State Cougars | 8-4 | 18 | 24 | - | 15 | 20 |
28 | Texas A&M Aggies | 8-4 | 42 | 33 | - | 17 | 29 |
29 | Houston Cougars | 9-3 | 35 | 32 | 24 | 26 | 28 |
30 | Iowa Hawkeyes | 8-4 | 16 | 22 | - | 23 | 24 |
31 | Boise State Broncos | 10-2 | 61 | 39 | - | 33 | 21 |
32 | Miami-Florida Hurricanes | 8-4 | 14 | 17 | - | 18 | 30 |
33 | Utah Utes | 8-4 | 27 | 30 | 20 | 30 | 32 |
34 | Tulsa Golden Hurricane | 9-3 | 48 | 47 | - | 48 | 36 |
35 | Arkansas Razorbacks | 7-5 | 47 | 40 | - | 44 | 44 |
36 | Tennessee Volunteers | 8-4 | 32 | 27 | 22 | 25 | 27 |
37 | Kansas State Wildcats | 7-4 | 29 | 35 | - | 32 | 43 |
38 | Georgia Bulldogs | 7-5 | 44 | 36 | - | 54 | 47 |
39 | BYU Cougars | 8-4 | 31 | 38 | - | 31 | 39 |
40 | Temple Owls | 9-3 | 39 | 44 | - | 38 | 34 |
41 | Minnesota Golden Gophers | 8-4 | 36 | 34 | - | 43 | 37 |
42 | Troy Trojans | 9-2 | 75 | 68 | - | 71 | 45 |
43 | Kentucky Wildcats | 7-5 | 45 | 42 | - | 61 | 51 |
44 | Memphis Tigers | 8-4 | 41 | 45 | - | 42 | 41 |
45 | Appalachian St. Mountaineers | 9-3 | 63 | 58 | - | 57 | 40 |
46 | Toledo Rockets | 9-3 | 62 | 57 | - | 53 | 42 |
47 | Wyoming Cowboys | 8-4 | 74 | 66 | - | 77 | 56 |
48 | Air Force Falcons | 9-3 | 68 | 61 | - | 67 | 48 |
49 | Western Kentucky Hilltoppers | 9-3 | 28 | 46 | - | 37 | 35 |
50 | TCU Horned Frogs | 6-5 | 43 | 48 | - | 29 | 50 |
51 | N.C. State Wolfpack | 6-6 | 37 | 41 | - | 46 | 52 |
52 | San Diego State Aztecs | 9-3 | 49 | 54 | - | 51 | 49 |
53 | Vanderbilt Commodores | 6-6 | 38 | 43 | - | 59 | 55 |
54 | Northwestern Wildcats | 6-6 | 40 | 37 | - | 41 | 46 |
55 | Old Dominion Monarchs | 9-3 | 82 | 80 | - | 84 | 62 |
56 | California Golden Bears | 5-7 | 53 | 51 | - | 55 | 60 |
57 | Indiana Hoosiers | 6-6 | 56 | 53 | - | 63 | 59 |
58 | New Mexico Lobos | 8-4 | 69 | 73 | - | 81 | 61 |
59 | Ole Miss Rebels | 5-7 | 54 | 50 | - | 36 | 53 |
60 | South Carolina Gamecocks | 6-6 | 76 | 67 | - | 75 | 69 |
61 | Colorado State Rams | 7-5 | 52 | 55 | - | 64 | 54 |
62 | Louisiana Tech Bulldogs | 8-4 | 64 | 72 | - | 68 | 57 |
63 | Boston College Eagles | 6-6 | 67 | 63 | - | 76 | 71 |
64 | Mississippi St. Bulldogs | 5-7 | 46 | 52 | - | 52 | 58 |
65 | Idaho Vandals | 7-4 | 100 | 84 | - | 100 | 78 |
66 | Texas Longhorns | 5-7 | 66 | 64 | - | 50 | 70 |
67 | Ohio University Bobcats | 8-4 | 87 | 86 | - | 86 | 76 |
68 | Wake Forest Demon Deacons | 6-6 | 73 | 69 | - | 73 | 73 |
69 | Baylor Bears | 6-5 | 72 | 65 | - | 49 | 63 |
70 | Arizona State Sun Devils | 5-7 | 81 | 75 | - | 65 | 75 |
71 | Maryland Terrapins | 6-6 | 85 | 78 | - | 74 | 67 |
72 | Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders | 8-4 | 94 | 87 | - | 85 | 79 |
73 | Eastern Michigan Eagles | 7-5 | 95 | 89 | - | 101 | 81 |
74 | Texas Tech Red Raiders | 5-7 | 51 | 77 | - | 58 | 72 |
75 | UCLA Bruins | 4-8 | 60 | 59 | - | 47 | 64 |
76 | UCF Knights | 6-6 | 70 | 76 | - | 62 | 65 |
77 | Oregon State Beavers | 4-8 | 57 | 60 | - | 66 | 74 |
78 | Oregon Ducks | 4-8 | 59 | 56 | - | 60 | 68 |
79 | Notre Dame Fighting Irish | 4-8 | 34 | 49 | - | 40 | 66 |
80 | Duke Blue Devils | 4-8 | 58 | 62 | - | 70 | 83 |
81 | Arkansas State Red Wolves | 6-5 | 80 | 83 | - | 78 | 77 |
82 | Syracuse Orange | 4-8 | 77 | 74 | - | 80 | 87 |
83 | SMU Mustangs | 5-7 | 92 | 85 | - | 89 | 84 |
84 | Hawaii Warriors | 6-7 | 109 | 104 | - | 108 | 97 |
85 | Central Michigan Chippewas | 6-6 | 96 | 93 | - | 93 | 86 |
86 | Miami-Ohio Redhawks | 6-6 | 83 | 92 | - | 99 | 92 |
87 | Army Black Knights | 6-5 | 102 | 98 | - | 82 | 91 |
88 | Texas-San Antonio Roadrunners | 6-6 | 89 | 81 | - | 97 | 88 |
89 | Missouri Tigers | 4-8 | 65 | 71 | - | 72 | 80 |
90 | Northern Illinois Huskies | 5-7 | 78 | 88 | - | 83 | 85 |
91 | Iowa St. Cyclones | 3-9 | 71 | 79 | - | 69 | 93 |
92 | Louisiana Ragin Cajuns | 5-6 | 90 | 97 | - | 104 | 94 |
93 | South Alabama Jaguars | 5-6 | 117 | 112 | - | 105 | 96 |
94 | Southern Miss Golden Eagles | 6-6 | 99 | 100 | - | 91 | 89 |
95 | Arizona Wildcats | 3-9 | 86 | 82 | - | 79 | 90 |
96 | Michigan State Spartans | 3-9 | 55 | 70 | - | 56 | 82 |
97 | Cincinnati Bearcats | 4-8 | 91 | 95 | - | 92 | 95 |
98 | Illinois Fighting Illini | 3-9 | 88 | 90 | - | 88 | 98 |
99 | Purdue Boilermakers | 3-9 | 84 | 94 | - | 98 | 103 |
100 | Nevada Wolf Pack | 5-7 | 101 | 105 | - | 102 | 107 |
101 | Akron Zips | 5-7 | 114 | 109 | - | 107 | 101 |
102 | North Texas Mean Green | 5-7 | 118 | 116 | - | 118 | 110 |
103 | ULM Warhawks | 4-7 | 123 | 117 | - | 121 | 109 |
104 | Virginia Cavaliers | 2-10 | 79 | 91 | - | 87 | 105 |
105 | Tulane Green Wave | 4-8 | 97 | 99 | - | 96 | 100 |
106 | East Carolina Pirates | 3-9 | 105 | 102 | - | 94 | 104 |
107 | Georgia Southern Eagles | 4-7 | 110 | 108 | - | 95 | 99 |
108 | Kansas Jayhawks | 2-10 | 93 | 96 | - | 103 | 118 |
109 | Bowling Green Falcons | 4-8 | 103 | 107 | - | 111 | 106 |
110 | UNLV Rebels | 4-8 | 107 | 110 | - | 112 | 112 |
111 | San Jose State Spartans | 4-8 | 106 | 106 | - | 109 | 108 |
112 | FIU Panthers | 4-8 | 111 | 115 | - | 119 | 116 |
113 | Rutgers Scarlet Knights | 2-10 | 112 | 103 | - | 114 | 113 |
114 | New Mexico State Aggies | 3-8 | 119 | 118 | - | 125 | 117 |
115 | Ball State Cardinals | 4-8 | 104 | 111 | - | 106 | 111 |
116 | Connecticut Huskies | 3-9 | 115 | 114 | - | 113 | 119 |
117 | Utah State Aggies | 4-8 | 98 | 101 | - | 90 | 102 |
118 | Georgia State Panthers | 3-8 | 113 | 119 | - | 110 | 114 |
119 | Charlotte 49ers | 4-8 | 127 | 122 | - | 124 | 120 |
120 | Texas-El Paso Miners | 4-8 | 121 | 124 | - | 126 | 122 |
121 | Rice Owls | 3-9 | 116 | 120 | - | 122 | 124 |
122 | Kent State Golden Flashes | 3-9 | 108 | 113 | - | 115 | 115 |
123 | Marshall Thundering Herd | 3-9 | 122 | 123 | - | 117 | 121 |
124 | Florida Atlantic Owls | 3-9 | 124 | 125 | - | 123 | 125 |
125 | Massachusetts Minutemen | 2-10 | 120 | 121 | - | 116 | 123 |
126 | Texas State Bobcats | 2-9 | 128 | 128 | - | 128 | 127 |
127 | Buffalo Bulls | 2-10 | 125 | 126 | - | 127 | 128 |
128 | Fresno State Bulldogs | 1-11 | 126 | 127 | - | 120 | 126 |
Here is a week by week look at the CFP style top 4:
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AFTER WEEK | #1 | #2 | #3 | #4 |
1 | Houston | Wisconsin | Florida State | Texas |
2 | Alabama | Wisconsin | Texas | Arkansas |
3 | Alabama | Ohio State | Texas A&M | Houston |
4 | Texas A&M | Alabama | Wisconsin | Stanford |
5 | Texas A&M | Alabama | Clemson | Tennessee |
6 | Texas A&M | Alabama | Clemson | Michigan |
7 | Alabama | Clemson | Texas A&M | Ohio State |
8 | Alabama | Clemson | Texas A&M | West Virginia |
9 | Alabama | Clemson | Ohio State | Michigan |
10 | Alabama | Clemson | Ohio State | Washington |
11 | Alabama | Ohio State | Clemson | Wisconsin |
12 | Alabama | Ohio State | Clemson | Wisconsin |
13 | Alabama | Ohio State | Clemson | Wisconsin |
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RANK | TEAM | REC | MASSEY | SAGARIN |
1 | Clemson | 11-1 | 1 | 1 |
2 | Florida State | 9-3 | 2 | 3 |
3 | Virginia Tech | 9-3 | 4 | 5 |
4 | Louisville | 9-3 | 3 | 2 |
5 | Pittsburgh | 8-4 | 6 | 7 |
6 | North Carolina | 8-4 | 7 | 6 |
7 | Georgia Tech | 8-4 | 8 | 8 |
8 | Miami | 8-4 | 5 | 4 |
9 | North Carolina State | 6-6 | 9 | 9 |
10 | Boston College | 6-6 | 10 | 12 |
11 | Wake Forest | 6-6 | 11 | 11 |
12 | Duke | 4-8 | 12 | 10 |
13 | Syracuse | 4-8 | 13 | 13 |
14 | Virginia | 2-10 | 14 | 14 |
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FAVORITE | SPREAD | UNDERDOG | ||
Western Michigan | 26.5 | Ohio | ||
Washington | 8.2 | Colorado | ||
at TCU | 1.0 | Kansas State | ||
Troy | 11.3 | at Georgia Southern | ||
at Navy | 10.6 | Temple | ||
at Western Kentucky | 16.5 | Louisiana Tech | ||
at Oklahoma | 10.3 | Oklahoma State | ||
at South Alabama | 3.6 | New Mexico State | ||
Louisiana Lafayette | 13.3 | at Louisiana Monroe | ||
at West Virginia | 23.6 | Baylor | ||
Alabama | 20.8 | Florida | ||
at Idaho | 12.3 | Georgia State | ||
Arkansas State | 35.7 | at Texas State | ||
San Diego State | 7.5 | at Wyoming | ||
Clemson | 12.5 | Virginia Tech | ||
Penn State | 0.4 | Wisconsin |