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The Book 2016: Week 14

What happens if Clemson or Washington loses? The 13th data point as Championship Week will provide us our CFP participants

Could the Lions lift a second trophy and still be out of the CFP?
Could the Lions lift a second trophy and still be out of the CFP?
Matthew O'Haren-USA TODAY Sports

One week of games.  That is all that remains between now and Selection Sunday when all the bowl pairings are announced as well of course as to who the participants are in the 3rd College Football Playoff.

To say that there may be a bit of chaos coming on Saturday night should a very plausible scenario play out is a bit of an understatement and may just have people yearning for a return to the BCS.  I kid, but just a bit.  The issue with the playoff now is that the committee is potentially faced with a scenario where a not only might a conference champion be left out (Penn State or Wisconsin), but it is not completely out of the realm of possibility that a conference, that being the Big 10, could conceivably send two teams to the playoff in Ohio State and Michigan, neither of which won their division of the league and of course, in the case of Michigan, finished 3rd in the East!

Nah, you say..well yeah I say.

With Michigan sitting 5th in the latest CFP rankings, all it would seemingly take would be a Washington or Clemson loss (Alabama and Ohio State are seemingly in regardless of the results this weekend) and having already defeated Penn State and Wisconsin and ranked above both of them, would very much be in line for that fourth spot.

It doesn't appear that teams like Colorado or Oklahoma have any shot and teams like Penn State and Wisconsin,very small ones.

Watching Kirby Hocutt sweat tonight, really unable to articulate what is by their own protocol described as art rather than science.  For many, that is a tough way to process information and is made even more confusing by the term "unequivocably better" that they don't seem to want to use when comparing Penn State and Ohio State, although the Lions beat the Bucks.  Now I am not a Penn State fan and I do think Ohio State is a better team and maybe feel alone is enough and they should leave it at that, but as has been argued often enough, "best vs most deserving", but by Miriam Webster dictionary definition alone "unequivocal - leaving no doubt"...yikes, doesn't there have to be some doubt?  I mean they played and Penn State won.

In the Book poll this week, we still have our 1-4 of Alabama, Ohio State, Clemson and Wisconsin, the third week in a row those four remained the same.  Last week we looked at using current rankings to justify where Michigan should sit rather than their resume being based on when they played a team, which allowed the Wolverines to rank fourth in that manner, with their wins over Colorado and Penn State now looking improved.  Based on that look, which I really do think I like, the top four would be Alabama, Ohio State, Clemson and Washington, matching the committee, with Penn State, Wisconsin, Colorado and Michigan at 5-9.

The method we use, whether it is where a team ranks now or where they ranked then, also leverages the 13th data point.  The committee (if you can trust them!!) began with this in year one when the Big 12 didn't have a title game or "one true champion" and that can't be ignored.  In this poll, the teams playing in title games on Championship Weekend will get the advantage of having points added (or subtracted in case of a loss) which will in fact move them around in the rankings.  It isn't a question of averaging in the results, so it is based on a per game number, we have been told that we evaluate the entire resume and in the case of the teams playing this week, that is a full one game more than others have.

BC rises this week following the win at Wake, sitting at #63 now a bit above what Massey and Sagarin have the Eagles.

Against the spread, amazing that after nearly 800 games being picked on the season, only 1 game to the good separates us from a .500 record.

Enjoy the games and Go Eagles!

Note:  the Massey composite rankings are as of Tuesday evening, November 29.

CFP COMMITTEE STYLE RANKING
RANK TEAM RECORD POWER COMBINED CFP SAGARIN MASSEY
1 Alabama Crimson Tide 12-0 1 1 1 1 1
2 Ohio State Buckeyes 11-1 2 2 2 2 2
3 Clemson Tigers 11-1 5 3 3 4 3
4 Wisconsin Badgers 10-2 10 8 6 7 6
5 Washington Huskies 11-1 3 4 4 5 5
6 USC Trojans 9-3 4 5 11 9 9
7 Colorado Buffaloes 10-2 11 9 8 11 8
8 Florida State Seminoles 9-3 9 10 12 12 11
9 Oklahoma Sooners 9-2 6 11 9 6 10
10 Penn State Nittany Lions 10-2 8 7 7 14 7
11 West Virginia Mountaineers 9-2 21 16 16 21 17
12 Oklahoma State Cowboys 9-2 13 14 10 19 18
13 Western Michigan Broncos 12-0 26 28 17 22 12
14 Michigan Wolverines 10-2 7 6 5 3 4
15 Stanford Cardinal 9-3 24 13 18 16 14
16 Virginia Tech Hokies 9-3 17 15 23 20 22
17 Navy Midshipmen 9-2 23 25 19 39 25
18 South Florida Bulls 10-2 33 29 - 35 23
19 Louisville Cardinals 9-3 15 19 13 10 15
20 Pittsburgh Panthers 8-4 22 18 25 28 31
21 Nebraska Cornhuskers 9-3 50 31 - 34 26
22 Florida Gators 8-3 20 20 15 24 19
23 Auburn Tigers 8-4 19 21 14 13 16
24 North Carolina Tar Heels 8-4 25 23 - 27 33
25 LSU Tigers 7-4 12 12 21 8 13
26 Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets 8-4 30 26 - 45 38
27 Washington State Cougars 8-4 18 24 - 15 20
28 Texas A&M Aggies 8-4 42 33 - 17 29
29 Houston Cougars 9-3 35 32 24 26 28
30 Iowa Hawkeyes 8-4 16 22 - 23 24
31 Boise State Broncos 10-2 61 39 - 33 21
32 Miami-Florida Hurricanes 8-4 14 17 - 18 30
33 Utah Utes 8-4 27 30 20 30 32
34 Tulsa Golden Hurricane 9-3 48 47 - 48 36
35 Arkansas Razorbacks 7-5 47 40 - 44 44
36 Tennessee Volunteers 8-4 32 27 22 25 27
37 Kansas State Wildcats 7-4 29 35 - 32 43
38 Georgia Bulldogs 7-5 44 36 - 54 47
39 BYU Cougars 8-4 31 38 - 31 39
40 Temple Owls 9-3 39 44 - 38 34
41 Minnesota Golden Gophers 8-4 36 34 - 43 37
42 Troy Trojans 9-2 75 68 - 71 45
43 Kentucky Wildcats 7-5 45 42 - 61 51
44 Memphis Tigers 8-4 41 45 - 42 41
45 Appalachian St. Mountaineers 9-3 63 58 - 57 40
46 Toledo Rockets 9-3 62 57 - 53 42
47 Wyoming Cowboys 8-4 74 66 - 77 56
48 Air Force Falcons 9-3 68 61 - 67 48
49 Western Kentucky Hilltoppers 9-3 28 46 - 37 35
50 TCU Horned Frogs 6-5 43 48 - 29 50
51 N.C. State Wolfpack 6-6 37 41 - 46 52
52 San Diego State Aztecs 9-3 49 54 - 51 49
53 Vanderbilt Commodores 6-6 38 43 - 59 55
54 Northwestern Wildcats 6-6 40 37 - 41 46
55 Old Dominion Monarchs 9-3 82 80 - 84 62
56 California Golden Bears 5-7 53 51 - 55 60
57 Indiana Hoosiers 6-6 56 53 - 63 59
58 New Mexico Lobos 8-4 69 73 - 81 61
59 Ole Miss Rebels 5-7 54 50 - 36 53
60 South Carolina Gamecocks 6-6 76 67 - 75 69
61 Colorado State Rams 7-5 52 55 - 64 54
62 Louisiana Tech Bulldogs 8-4 64 72 - 68 57
63 Boston College Eagles 6-6 67 63 - 76 71
64 Mississippi St. Bulldogs 5-7 46 52 - 52 58
65 Idaho Vandals 7-4 100 84 - 100 78
66 Texas Longhorns 5-7 66 64 - 50 70
67 Ohio University Bobcats 8-4 87 86 - 86 76
68 Wake Forest Demon Deacons 6-6 73 69 - 73 73
69 Baylor Bears 6-5 72 65 - 49 63
70 Arizona State Sun Devils 5-7 81 75 - 65 75
71 Maryland Terrapins 6-6 85 78 - 74 67
72 Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders 8-4 94 87 - 85 79
73 Eastern Michigan Eagles 7-5 95 89 - 101 81
74 Texas Tech Red Raiders 5-7 51 77 - 58 72
75 UCLA Bruins 4-8 60 59 - 47 64
76 UCF Knights 6-6 70 76 - 62 65
77 Oregon State Beavers 4-8 57 60 - 66 74
78 Oregon Ducks 4-8 59 56 - 60 68
79 Notre Dame Fighting Irish 4-8 34 49 - 40 66
80 Duke Blue Devils 4-8 58 62 - 70 83
81 Arkansas State Red Wolves 6-5 80 83 - 78 77
82 Syracuse Orange 4-8 77 74 - 80 87
83 SMU Mustangs 5-7 92 85 - 89 84
84 Hawaii Warriors 6-7 109 104 - 108 97
85 Central Michigan Chippewas 6-6 96 93 - 93 86
86 Miami-Ohio Redhawks 6-6 83 92 - 99 92
87 Army Black Knights 6-5 102 98 - 82 91
88 Texas-San Antonio Roadrunners 6-6 89 81 - 97 88
89 Missouri Tigers 4-8 65 71 - 72 80
90 Northern Illinois Huskies 5-7 78 88 - 83 85
91 Iowa St. Cyclones 3-9 71 79 - 69 93
92 Louisiana Ragin Cajuns 5-6 90 97 - 104 94
93 South Alabama Jaguars 5-6 117 112 - 105 96
94 Southern Miss Golden Eagles 6-6 99 100 - 91 89
95 Arizona Wildcats 3-9 86 82 - 79 90
96 Michigan State Spartans 3-9 55 70 - 56 82
97 Cincinnati Bearcats 4-8 91 95 - 92 95
98 Illinois Fighting Illini 3-9 88 90 - 88 98
99 Purdue Boilermakers 3-9 84 94 - 98 103
100 Nevada Wolf Pack 5-7 101 105 - 102 107
101 Akron Zips 5-7 114 109 - 107 101
102 North Texas Mean Green 5-7 118 116 - 118 110
103 ULM Warhawks 4-7 123 117 - 121 109
104 Virginia Cavaliers 2-10 79 91 - 87 105
105 Tulane Green Wave 4-8 97 99 - 96 100
106 East Carolina Pirates 3-9 105 102 - 94 104
107 Georgia Southern Eagles 4-7 110 108 - 95 99
108 Kansas Jayhawks 2-10 93 96 - 103 118
109 Bowling Green Falcons 4-8 103 107 - 111 106
110 UNLV Rebels 4-8 107 110 - 112 112
111 San Jose State Spartans 4-8 106 106 - 109 108
112 FIU Panthers 4-8 111 115 - 119 116
113 Rutgers Scarlet Knights 2-10 112 103 - 114 113
114 New Mexico State Aggies 3-8 119 118 - 125 117
115 Ball State Cardinals 4-8 104 111 - 106 111
116 Connecticut Huskies 3-9 115 114 - 113 119
117 Utah State Aggies 4-8 98 101 - 90 102
118 Georgia State Panthers 3-8 113 119 - 110 114
119 Charlotte 49ers 4-8 127 122 - 124 120
120 Texas-El Paso Miners 4-8 121 124 - 126 122
121 Rice Owls 3-9 116 120 - 122 124
122 Kent State Golden Flashes 3-9 108 113 - 115 115
123 Marshall Thundering Herd 3-9 122 123 - 117 121
124 Florida Atlantic Owls 3-9 124 125 - 123 125
125 Massachusetts Minutemen 2-10 120 121 - 116 123
126 Texas State Bobcats 2-9 128 128 - 128 127
127 Buffalo Bulls 2-10 125 126 - 127 128
128 Fresno State Bulldogs 1-11 126 127 - 120 126

Here is a week by week look at the CFP style top 4:

TOP 4 - WEEK BY WEEK
AFTER WEEK #1 #2 #3 #4
1 Houston Wisconsin Florida State Texas
2 Alabama Wisconsin Texas Arkansas
3 Alabama Ohio State Texas A&M Houston
4 Texas A&M Alabama Wisconsin Stanford
5 Texas A&M Alabama Clemson Tennessee
6 Texas A&M Alabama Clemson Michigan
7 Alabama Clemson Texas A&M Ohio State
8 Alabama Clemson Texas A&M West Virginia
9 Alabama Clemson Ohio State Michigan
10 Alabama Clemson Ohio State Washington
11 Alabama Ohio State Clemson Wisconsin
12 Alabama Ohio State Clemson Wisconsin
13 Alabama Ohio State Clemson Wisconsin

THE ACC/CFP RANKINGS
RANK TEAM REC MASSEY SAGARIN
1 Clemson 11-1 1 1
2 Florida State 9-3 2 3
3 Virginia Tech 9-3 4 5
4 Louisville 9-3 3 2
5 Pittsburgh 8-4 6 7
6 North Carolina 8-4 7 6
7 Georgia Tech 8-4 8 8
8 Miami 8-4 5 4
9 North Carolina State 6-6 9 9
10 Boston College 6-6 10 12
11 Wake Forest 6-6 11 11
12 Duke 4-8 12 10
13 Syracuse 4-8 13 13
14 Virginia 2-10 14 14

Records shown against the Vegas spread (starting next week) utilize the Danny Sheridan opening line.  The spreads below are ones created by the Book.

Last Week's record:  Won 28 Lost 31 Tied 2 .475 winning percentage
Season record:  Won 344 Lost 343 Tied 12 .501 winning percentage


NATIONAL/ACC SPREADS
FAVORITE SPREAD UNDERDOG
Western Michigan 26.5 Ohio
Washington 8.2 Colorado
at TCU 1.0 Kansas State
Troy 11.3 at Georgia Southern
at Navy 10.6 Temple
at Western Kentucky 16.5 Louisiana Tech
at Oklahoma 10.3 Oklahoma State
at South Alabama 3.6 New Mexico State
Louisiana Lafayette 13.3 at Louisiana Monroe
at West Virginia 23.6 Baylor
Alabama 20.8 Florida
at Idaho 12.3 Georgia State
Arkansas State 35.7 at Texas State
San Diego State 7.5 at Wyoming
Clemson 12.5 Virginia Tech
Penn State 0.4 Wisconsin