Last Week: 2-3
Lock of the Week: 10-2
Boston College at Wake Forest (-3)
They say in Vegas that for the average home field advantage the home team gets three points. That means that on a neutral field this game would be a pickem, which I don’t understand. Wake has beaten a decent Indiana team on the road and beaten ‘Cuse by 19 at home. Also, Wake has been a lot more competitive with the elite teams in the ACC losing to FSU by 11, Louisville by 32 and Clemson by 22. I know that doesn’t sound great but BC lost to the same trio by 38, 45 and 46.
Another thing that separates these two teams is performance in conference play overall, as Wake averages 6.7 points per game more on offense and 13 less on defense.
Tulane (+1.5) at UConn
This is my last chance to bet against Bob Diaco, so there is that.
Then there is the fact that UConn has failed to cover its last 15 games as a favorite.
Also, this is about the time that I remind myself that I bet on Diaco last week which should be my number one rule in gambling.
At least he is entertaining in a 16 carat lunatic kind of way in press conferences though right? Listening to Bob Diaco explain his coaching decisions makes Steve Addazio sound like a nuclear scientist.
Here’s Diaco explaining what needs to change for the UConn program while making a few dozen excuses in the process (starts around 4:00 mark)
Here's Diaco explaining going for a fake field goal on 4th and 18 from the 19-yard line in a 7-0 game (starts at 4:35)
Michigan at Ohio State Under 47.5
Two disclaimers on this game. #1 is you probably can’t get this number any longer since I grabbed it on Monday. The #2 disclaimer is that I almost never win on over/under bets.
All I can tell you is I think Jim Harbaugh knows that his best chance to win will be to grind this game out and let Don Brown and his defense win. After watching these two teams last week I think this will be an ole fashion grind it out slug fest.
South Carolina (+24) at Clemson
Once again this is a reminder that this is rivalry time of the year and the time of the year that the college football playoff teams all have jacked up point spreads!
Aside from allowing 31 in a sloppy game against Western Carolina last weekend, South Carolina’s most points allowed this year were 28 (twice) and 24. I think this spread is too high and Vegas is making you pay a premium to take a team that is currently in the college football playoff.
Lock of the Week
Tennessee at Vanderbilt (+8)
So there are two things that I love to look at this time of year---Underdogs in rivalry games and teams that need a win to secure a bowl game. Vandy checks both of these boxes for me here.
Another reason I like Vandy here is DEFENSE. Would you believe it if I told you that the Commodores are 5th in the SEC in conference play in points allowed at only 18.3? That’s only a field goal more than Alabama!
On offense Vandy doesn’t have a ton of weapons but running back Ralph Webb is one of the most underrated players in the conference. The sophomore back is 5th overall in rushing and has ripped off 6 games of 95 yards or more this year.