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The Book 2016: Week 12

Losses throw rankings into chaos...or do they? Eagles a double digit FAVORITE in home final vs UConn.

By John Fidler
Louisville back in the CFP race
Louisville back in the CFP race
Jamie Rhodes-USA TODAY Sports

College football's week 11 brought with it a half season full of upsets.   Of the CFP committee's top 10, five of those teams went down, including 3 of the top 4, bringing into doubt, who, besides Alabama, is really a 2016 playoff team. Beyond the Tide there are as many permutations of the next six teams as there are opinions about them.  I've seen essentially all of the likely candidates (Ohio State, Clemson,  Louisville, Wisconsin, Michigan and Washington) still showing in someone's rankings and such is the case with our Book poll this week.

I read an article by ESPN's Ryan McGee today where he discussed good losses, with the premise of the question whether good losses or good wins are more important.  Well the answer should be anyway,  that all of these and more.  Good losses,  good wins, bad losses, bad wins, who you play, where and when you play them.

What the Book poll will argue is the losses and wins for Michigan and Washington are the weakest of the bunch and this makes some sense.  A quick look at each and you make the call.

  • Ohio State - the most balanced resume and the sluggishness of the Indiana, Northwestern and Wisconsin wins are past.   The Penn State loss is the second  best loss outside of Louisville.  The power rating loves the Buckeyes.
    • Good wins:  Oklahoma, Wisconsin, Nebraska
    • Middling wins:  Tulsa,  Indiana, Northwestern
    • Bad wins - Bowling Green, Rutgers, Maryland
    • Good losses - Penn State
    • Bad losses - none
  • Clemson - the question here is whether you believe Pitt is a good loss.  Well the Panthers are #32 in our poll this week and were #40 when Clemson lost to them.  So more good wins,  and no bad losses
    • Good wins - Auburn, Troy, Georgia Tech, Louisville, Florida State
    • Middling wins - NC State
    • Bad wins - BC, Syracuse
    • Good losses - Pittsburgh
    • Bad losses - None
  • Louisville - maybe the toughest team of all to evaluate.  That good loss to Clemson could have just as easily been a win.  Other than that,  just an FSU win to  put in the good column.  It appears that no other team benefitted as much from really doing nothing, than did Louisville.   Hey, I buy them...but an odd resume
    • Good wins - Florida State
    • Middling Wins - NC State, Wake Forest
    • Bad wins - Charlotte, Syracuse, Marshall, Duke, Virginia, BC
    • Good losses - Clemson
    • Bad losses - none
  • Wisconsin - interesting that Wisconsin is ranked above Michigan, as the two losses they took combined weren't as bad as any single loss the rest of the teams have.
    • Good wins - LSU, Iowa, Nebraska
    • Middling wins - Northwestern
    • Bad wins - Akron, Georgia State, Michigan State, Illinois
    • Good losses - Michigan, Ohio State
    • Bad losses - none
  • Michigan - clearly the committee still believes Michigan is strong.  The fact is though that the Wolverines have five pretty poor wins out of their nine, so are they both good and worthy?
    • Good wins - Colorado, Penn State, Wisconsin
    • Middling wins - Central Florida
    • Bad wins - Hawaii, Rutgers, Illinois, Michigan State, Maryland
    • Good losses - Iowa
    • Bad losses - none
  • Washington - there's a reason most polls including ours have Washington so far down. Mostly bad wins, the horrid non conference schedule although what should be  a better than people realize loss to USC who is currently in our poll, Massey and Sagarin's top 12.
    • Good wins - Stanford, Utah
    • Middling wins - California
    • Bad wins -- Rutgers, Idaho, Arizona, Oregon, Oregon State
    • Good losses - USC
    • Bad losses - none
Now of course, Washington  and Clemson both have wins against FCS teams, so not good there either.

My belief watching what the committee did this week is that this is far closer to the old poll system, where if you lost,  you dropped and it really wasn't (isn't) about who is best and that the reason things look like they do now is that so many teams lost there was a bit of recycling going on.

Believe it or not, after not  being a favorite in any game since the Buffalo contest, BC is finally on the plus side of the ledger as a 10.4 point favorite over a slumping UConn squad.

Enjoy the games and Go Eagles!

Note:  the Massey composite rankings are as of Tuesday evening, November 15.

CFP COMMITTEE STYLE RANKING
RANK TEAM RECORD POWER COMBINED CFP SAGARIN MASSEY
1 Alabama Crimson Tide 10-0 1 1 1 1 1
2 Ohio State Buckeyes 9-1 2 2 2 2 2
3 Clemson Tigers 9-1 5 3 4 5 4
4 Wisconsin Badgers 8-2 9 6 7 8 7
5 Louisville Cardinals 9-1 3 5 5 4 5
6 Washington Huskies 9-1 6 7 6 6 6
7 West Virginia Mountaineers 8-1 21 18 14 19 17
8 USC Trojans 7-3 4 4 13 12 9
9 Penn State Nittany Lions 8-2 11 9 8 17 8
10 Oklahoma Sooners 8-2 14 13 9 10 14
11 Michigan Wolverines 9-1 7 8 3 3 3
12 Oklahoma State Cowboys 8-2 19 19 11 25 25
13 Florida State Seminoles 7-3 13 11 17 15 16
14 Colorado Buffaloes 8-2 12 14 10 14 11
15 Western Michigan Broncos 10-0 23 27 21 22 10
16 Washington State Cougars 8-2 10 12 22 11 12
17 Stanford Cardinal 7-3 15 15 24 16 20
18 Utah Utes 8-2 20 20 12 28 21
19 North Carolina Tar Heels 7-3 16 17
26 26
20 Auburn Tigers 7-3 17 16 15 9 13
21 Nebraska Cornhuskers 8-2 35 26 18 30 22
22 Boise State Broncos 9-1 46 35 20 29 18
23 Texas A&M Aggies 7-3 28 21 25 13 19
24 Navy Midshipmen 7-2 41 39
54 35
25 Virginia Tech Hokies 7-3 24 22
24 27
26 LSU Tigers 6-3 8 10 16 7 15
27 South Florida Bulls 8-2 36 33
43 29
28 Florida Gators 7-2 31 30 23 23 24
29 Arkansas Razorbacks 6-4 49 36
41 36
30 Tennessee Volunteers 7-3 30 25 19 21 23
31 Georgia Bulldogs 6-4 33 29
48 44
32 Pittsburgh Panthers 6-4 25 24
35 34
33 Troy Trojans 8-1 64 58
61 32
34 Houston Cougars 8-2 48 43
33 28
35 San Diego State Aztecs 9-1 22 38
38 30
36 Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets 6-4 37 34
47 47
37 BYU Cougars 6-4 29 31
34 38
38 Iowa Hawkeyes 6-4 32 37
31 37
39 Miami-Florida Hurricanes 6-4 18 23
20 33
40 Ole Miss Rebels 5-5 26 28
18 31
41 Tulsa Golden Hurricane 7-3 51 47
53 43
42 Toledo Rockets 8-2 56 54
51 40
43 Texas Longhorns 5-5 39 40
39 54
44 Kansas State Wildcats 5-4 40 41
40 50
45 Temple Owls 7-3 44 44
44 39
46 Minnesota Golden Gophers 7-3 55 51
52 45
47 Wyoming Cowboys 7-3 73 69
75 55
48 Northwestern Wildcats 5-5 26 32
36 42
49 Appalachian St. Mountaineers 7-3 68 65
60 46
50 Western Kentucky Hilltoppers 8-3 43 48
45 41
51 Louisiana Tech Bulldogs 8-3 54 57
64 52
52 TCU Horned Frogs 5-4 45 46
27 48
53 Baylor Bears 6-3 47 52
37 49
54 Arizona State Sun Devils 5-5 72 64
57 59
55 Wake Forest Demon Deacons 6-4 63 60
67 61
56 New Mexico Lobos 7-3 74 73
85 70
57 South Carolina Gamecocks 5-5 69 63
68 67
58 Kentucky Wildcats 5-5 60 55
66 62
59 Indiana Hoosiers 5-5 59 56
65 60
60 Ohio University Bobcats 7-3 79 76
81 69
61 Air Force Falcons 7-3 77 74
70 58
62 N.C. State Wolfpack 5-5 50 50
46 56
63 California Golden Bears 4-6 66 59
63 64
64 UCF Knights 6-4 57 62
56 57
65 Memphis Tigers 6-4 58 61
49 53
66 UCLA Bruins 4-6 38 42
32 51
67 Old Dominion Monarchs 7-3 86 84
90 71
67 Duke Blue Devils 4-6 42 49
62 72
69 Mississippi St. Bulldogs 4-6 52 53
55 65
70 Notre Dame Fighting Irish 4-6 34 45
42 63
71 Syracuse Orange 4-6 78 72
77 80
72 Eastern Michigan Eagles 6-4 95 89
102 79
73 SMU Mustangs 5-5 83 79
82 77
74 Maryland Terrapins 5-5 87 82
73 68
75 Idaho Vandals 6-4 96 88
99 76
76 Texas Tech Red Raiders 4-6 53 66
50 66
77 Arkansas State Red Wolves 5-4 85 85
88 78
78 Boston College Eagles 4-6 81 77
83 84
79 Vanderbilt Commodores 4-6 62 67
69 75
80 Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders 6-4 93 95
89 82
81 Central Michigan Chippewas 5-5 94 94
94 85
82 Oregon Ducks 3-7 67 68
58 73
83 Colorado State Rams 5-5 75 80
74 74
84 Texas-San Antonio Roadrunners 5-5 100 92
98 93
85 Cincinnati Bearcats 4-6 88 90
92 92
86 South Alabama Jaguars 4-5 116 111
101 95
87 Illinois Fighting Illini 3-7 84 83
80 88
88 Army Black Knights 5-5 104 102
84 91
89 Miami-Ohio Redhawks 5-6 80 86
100 94
90 Hawaii Warriors 4-7 112 105
110 105
91 Michigan State Spartans 3-7 61 71
59 81
92 Oregon State Beavers 2-8 65 70
72 83
93 Purdue Boilermakers 3-7 89 93
104 108
94 Southern Miss Golden Eagles 5-5 103 103
95 89
95 Missouri Tigers 3-7 76 81
71 86
96 Akron Zips 5-6 117 112
106 98
97 Louisiana Ragin Cajuns 4-5 105 108
111 102
98 Iowa St. Cyclones 2-8 71 78
76 101
99 Arizona Wildcats 2-8 91 87
79 90
100 UNLV Rebels 4-6 98 98
103 104
101 North Texas Mean Green 4-6 113 109
117 110
102 Virginia Cavaliers 2-8 70 75
78 99
103 ULM Warhawks 4-6 122 118
120 109
104 East Carolina Pirates 3-7 92 96
87 100
105 Connecticut Huskies 3-7 97 97
97 107
106 Northern Illinois Huskies 3-7 82 91
86 96
107 Georgia Southern Eagles 4-6 102 106
93 87
108 Ball State Cardinals 4-6 109 113
108 111
109 Rutgers Scarlet Knights 2-8 106 101
109 112
110 Charlotte 49ers 4-6 125 120
123 115
111 Utah State Aggies 4-6 99 100
91 97
112 Tulane Green Wave 3-7 101 104
96 106
113 San Jose State Spartans 3-7 107 107
112 113
114 Kent State Golden Flashes 3-7 90 99
105 103
115 FIU Panthers 3-7 115 116
122 119
116 Nevada Wolf Pack 3-7 110 115
115 118
117 New Mexico State Aggies 2-7 124 121
125 121
118 Florida Atlantic Owls 3-7 120 122
121 122
119 Marshall Thundering Herd 3-7 108 114
107 114
120 Texas State Bobcats 2-7 128 128
128 125
121 Kansas Jayhawks 1-9 111 110
114 123
122 Texas-El Paso Miners 3-7 121 123
126 124
123 Massachusetts Minutemen 2-8 118 119
116 120
124 Bowling Green Falcons 2-8 114 117
118 116
125 Rice Owls 2-8 127 126
124 127
126 Georgia State Panthers 2-8 119 124
113 117
127 Buffalo Bulls 2-8 126 127
127 128
128 Fresno State Bulldogs 1-9 123 125
119 126

Here is a week by week look at the CFP style top 4:

TOP 4 - WEEK BY WEEK
AFTER WEEK #1 #2 #3 #4
1 Houston Wisconsin Florida State Texas
2 Alabama Wisconsin Texas Arkansas
3 Alabama Ohio State Texas A&M Houston
4 Texas A&M Alabama Wisconsin Stanford
5 Texas A&M Alabama Clemson Tennessee
6 Texas A&M Alabama Clemson Michigan
7 Alabama Clemson Texas A&M Ohio State
8 Alabama Clemson Texas A&M West Virginia
9 Alabama Clemson Ohio State Michigan
10 Alabama Clemson Ohio State Washington
11 Alabama Ohio State Clemson Wisconsin

THE ACC/CFP RANKINGS
RANK TEAM REC MASSEY SAGARIN
1 Clemson 9-1 1 2
2 Louisville 9-1 2 1
3 Florida State 7-3 3 3
4 North Carolina 7-3 4 6
5 Virginia Tech 7-3 5 5
6 Pittsburgh 6-4 7 7
7 Georgia Tech 6-4 8 9
8 Miami 6-4 6 4
9 Wake Forest 6-4 10 11
10 North Carolina State 5-5 9 8
11 Duke 4-6 11 10
12 Syracuse 4-6 12 12
13 Boston College 4-6 13 14
14 Virginia 28 14 13

Records shown against the Vegas spread (starting next week) utilize the Danny Sheridan opening line.  The spreads below are ones created by the Book.

Last Week's record:  Won 30 Lost 28 Tied 0 .517 winning percentage
Season record:  Won 287 Lost 283 Tied 10 .503 winning percentage


NATIONAL/ACC SPREADS
FAVORITE SPREAD UNDERDOG
Louisville 19.9 at Houston
at Boise State 27.8 UNLV
at Western Michigan 48.3 Buffalo
at LSU 57.2 South Alabama
at Texas A&M 33.9 Texas-San Antonio
at Washington 37.3 Arizona State
USC 15.6 at UCLA
at Colorado E Washington State
at Utah 21.5 Oregon
Stanford 16.9 at California
Oklahoma 0.8 at West Virginia
Oklahoma State 4.1 at TCU
at Boston College 10.4 Connecticut
Clemson 25.6 at Wake Forest
at Pittsburgh 9.3 Duke
Florida State 24.7 at Syracuse
at Georgia Tech 16.7 Virginia
Miami 7.9 at North Carolina State
Ohio State 30.8 at Michigan State
at Michigan 30.8 Indiana
Wisconsin 35.2 at Purdue
at Notre Dame 1.4 Virginia Tech
Penn State 38.7 at Rutgers

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