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The Book 2016: Week 11

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Tide still at the top. The UW/Ohio State argument has a twist. Eagles 33 point underdog at FSU

Kirby Hocutt explains the logic of the CFP committee
Kirby Hocutt explains the logic of the CFP committee
Michael C. Johnson-USA TODAY Sports

Week two of the College Football Playoff committee rankings are out and to no one's surprise, the Alabama Crimson Tide continues to lead the way.  Bama's 10-0 win in Baton Rouge over a highly ranked LSU team just continues to solidfy their position at the top of the charts.

As it will be most weeks, the debate in the poll is between spots 4 and 5, this week Washington (4) and Ohio State (5).  There is a decided lack of logic though when it comes to a group of twelve making a decision and sticking with a consistent criteria, so unlike our very systemic poll, that logic can change.

A week ago, the rationale for putting A&M ahead of Washington despite the loss, was the quality of the loss, that being to Alabama and a stronger Aggie schedule. This week, UW goes ahead but the rationale of why the Huskies rather than Ohio State doesn't take into account their strength of schedule or the quality loss of the Buckeyes to current #10 Penn State.

The Book doesn't quite agree with either scenario and has Ohio State third with Washington fourth and Michigan fifth.  The difference quite clearly being that strength of schedule.  By our calculations Ohio State is 14th in strength of schedule, with Washington 74th.

As for Boston College, well Steve Addazio's team gave back their NC State gains last week in the 52-7 whitewashing against Louisville and now sits at #73 in the CFP style poll, 83rd in power ranking and #76 in the combined rankings, very much in line with where both Sagarin (83) and Massey (77) place them.

This week the Eagles travel to Florida State and are the biggest underdog we've seen all season for a BC game at 33.1 points

The Book had a modest week against the spread, going two games over .500 to sit at that same two games over .500 level for the year to date.

Enjoy the games and Go Eagles!

Note:  the Massey composite rankings are as of Monday evening, November 7.

CFP COMMITTEE STYLE RANKING
RANK TEAM RECORD POWER COMBINED CFP SAGARIN MASSEY
1 Alabama Crimson Tide 9-0 1 1 1 1 1
2 Clemson Tigers 9-0 2 2 2 4 3
3 Ohio State Buckeyes 8-1 5 3 5 3 4
4 Washington Huskies 9-0 3 5 4 5 5
5 Michigan Wolverines 9-0 4 4 3 2 2
6 Wisconsin Badgers 7-2 7 7 7 9 8
7 Louisville Cardinals 8-1 6 6 6 6 6
8 North Carolina Tar Heels 7-2 10 9 17 25 18
9 Auburn Tigers 7-2 11 8 9 7 7
10 Penn State Nittany Lions 7-2 12 10 10 17 11
11 West Virginia Mountaineers 7-1 24 21 16 21 19
12 Colorado Buffaloes 7-2 14 13 12 12 12
13 Virginia Tech Hokies 7-2 17 16 14 16 17
14 Florida State Seminoles 6-3 15 12 18 15 14
15 Western Michigan Broncos 9-0 21 22 21 19 9
16 Texas A&M Aggies 7-2 19 17 8 10 10
17 Oklahoma Sooners 7-2 16 15 11 11 16
18 Oklahoma State Cowboys 7-2 18 18 13 26 27
19 Washington State Cougars 7-2 9 14 23 13 13
20 USC Trojans 6-3 8 11 20 14 15
21 Utah Utes 7-2 26 23 15 28 25
22 Stanford Cardinal 6-3 22 19 - 18 24
23 Boise State Broncos 8-1 52 36 22 31 20
24 Arkansas Razorbacks 6-3 29 24 25 32 28
25 Nebraska Cornhuskers 7-2 34 26 19 29 22
26 Navy Midshipmen 6-2 43 38 - 56 42
27 South Florida Bulls 7-2 35 32 - 40 32
28 Tulsa Golden Hurricane 7-2 46 42 - 47 33
29 Florida Gators 6-2 28 30 - 23 26
30 Houston Cougars 7-2 32 33 - 30 29
31 LSU Tigers 5-3 13 20 24 8 21
32 San Diego State Aztecs 8-1 23 31 - 37 30
33 Wyoming Cowboys 7-2 62 51 - 73 41
34 Tennessee Volunteers 6-3 27 25 - 22 23
35 Troy Trojans 7-1 71 66 - 61 31
36 Texas Longhorns 5-4 31 29 - 36 51
37 Minnesota Golden Gophers 7-2 50 45 - 44 34
38 Appalachian St. Mountaineers 7-2 67 59 - 60 38
39 BYU Cougars 5-4 25 28 - 35 39
40 Georgia Bulldogs 5-4 47 41 - 57 50
41 Kansas State Wildcats 5-4 36 37 - 38 52
42 Temple Owls 7-3 38 40 - 43 37
43 Pittsburgh Panthers 5-4 40 39 - 42 45
44 Miami-Florida Hurricanes 5-4 20 27 - 24 36
45 Arizona State Sun Devils 5-4 68 55 - 50 53
46 Baylor Bears 6-2 41 47 - 33 43
47 Toledo Rockets 7-2 54 61 - 49 40
48 Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets 5-4 53 46 - 55 54
49 Wake Forest Demon Deacons 6-3 64 63 - 66 57
50 South Carolina Gamecocks 5-4 69 62 - 70 66
51 Kentucky Wildcats 5-4 61 50 - 67 59
52 TCU Horned Frogs 5-4 39 43 - 27 47
53 Indiana Hoosiers 5-4 60 53 - 63 58
54 Memphis Tigers 6-3 56 60 - 45 48
55 Western Kentucky Hilltoppers 7-3 45 48 - 53 44
56 Ole Miss Rebels 4-5 33 34 - 20 35
57 Northwestern Wildcats 4-5 30 35 - 41 46
58 California Golden Bears 4-5 65 58 - 59 60
59 Louisiana Tech Bulldogs 7-3 57 65 - 62 55
60 Iowa Hawkeyes 5-4 48 52 - 39 49
61 Ohio University Bobcats 7-3 79 77 - 85 71
62 Syracuse Orange 4-5 76 70 - 78 74
63 New Mexico Lobos 6-3 75 74 - 91 73
64 Mississippi St. Bulldogs 4-5 44 49 - 52 62
65 Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders 6-3 85 82 - 80 72
66 Maryland Terrapins 5-4 82 73 - 68 64
67 UCF Knights 5-4 63 68 - 58 61
67 N.C. State Wolfpack 4-5 51 57 - 48 65
69 Vanderbilt Commodores 4-5 49 54 - 69 67
70 Air Force Falcons 6-3 77 80 - 71 63
71 Old Dominion Monarchs 6-3 91 89 - 95 75
72 Texas Tech Red Raiders 4-5 58 71 - 51 70
73 UCLA Bruins 3-6 37 44 - 34 56
74 Boston College Eagles 4-5 83 76 - 83 77
75 Idaho Vandals 5-4 105 98 - 110 81
76 Colorado State Rams 5-4 73 72 - 75 69
77 Eastern Michigan Eagles 5-4 102 96 - 106 83
78 Notre Dame Fighting Irish 3-6 42 56 - 46 76
79 SMU Mustangs 4-5 93 87 - 92 82
80 Texas-San Antonio Roadrunners 5-4 96 86 - 96 86
81 Cincinnati Bearcats 4-5 89 83 - 87 90
82 Oregon Ducks 3-6 59 64 - 54 68
83 Arkansas State Red Wolves 4-4 87 92 - 86 80
84 Central Michigan Chippewas 5-5 98 94 - 94 89
85 Army Black Knights 5-4 95 100 - 77 84
86 Akron Zips 5-5 112 104 - 100 91
87 Hawaii Warriors 4-6 103 102 - 108 102
88 Southern Miss Golden Eagles 5-4 97 99 - 93 88
89 Duke Blue Devils 3-6 55 67 - 64 79
90 Illinois Fighting Illini 3-6 78 79 - 79 87
91 Oregon State Beavers 2-7 66 69 - 72 78
92 Purdue Boilermakers 3-6 88 85 - 99 103
93 South Alabama Jaguars 4-5 118 111 - 102 97
94 East Carolina Pirates 3-6 84 84 - 81 93
95 Georgia Southern Eagles 4-5 90 97 - 90 85
96 North Texas Mean Green 4-5 111 107 - 111 106
97 Arizona Wildcats 2-7 92 88 - 84 94
98 Virginia Cavaliers 2-7 70 75 - 82 100
99 Charlotte 49ers 4-5 116 113 - 120 110
100 Miami-Ohio Redhawks 4-6 81 91 - 104 99
101 Ball State Cardinals 4-5 104 106 - 103 105
102 Northern Illinois Huskies 3-6 80 90 - 88 96
103 Rutgers Scarlet Knights 2-7 94 95 - 98 101
104 Michigan State Spartans 2-7 74 78 - 65 92
105 Utah State Aggies 4-5 99 101 - 89 95
106 Iowa St. Cyclones 1-8 72 81 - 76 109
107 Louisiana Ragin Cajuns 3-5 114 117 - 117 111
108 Tulane Green Wave 3-6 110 110 - 101 107
109 Connecticut Huskies 3-7 101 103 - 97 108
110 ULM Warhawks 3-6 126 123 - 123 115
111 Missouri Tigers 2-7 86 93 - 74 98
112 UNLV Rebels 3-6 108 112 - 109 114
113 New Mexico State Aggies 2-6 122 118 - 126 116
114 Kent State Golden Flashes 3-6 100 105 - 107 104
115 Texas-El Paso Miners 3-6 121 119 - 125 120
116 Texas State Bobcats 2-6 127 126 - 128 124
117 Nevada Wolf Pack 3-6 109 114 - 112 117
118 San Jose State Spartans 3-7 106 109 - 113 113
119 Kansas Jayhawks 1-8 113 108 - 115 122
120 FIU Panthers 3-7 115 116 - 121 118
121 Florida Atlantic Owls 2-7 122 124 - 122 126
122 Georgia State Panthers 2-7 107 115 - 105 112
123 Massachusetts Minutemen 2-8 119 120 - 114 119
124 Marshall Thundering Herd 2-7 117 121 - 116 121
125 Buffalo Bulls 2-7 125 127 - 127 125
126 Bowling Green Falcons 1-8 120 122 - 119 123
127 Rice Owls 1-8 128 128 - 124 128
128 Fresno State Bulldogs 1-9 124 125 - 118 127

Here is a week by week look at the CFP style top 4:

TOP 4 - WEEK BY WEEK
AFTER WEEK #1 #2 #3 #4
1 Houston Wisconsin Florida State Texas
2 Alabama Wisconsin Texas Arkansas
3 Alabama Ohio State Texas A&M Houston
4 Texas A&M Alabama Wisconsin Stanford
5 Texas A&M Alabama Clemson Tennessee
6 Texas A&M Alabama Clemson Michigan
7 Alabama Clemson Texas A&M Ohio State
8 Alabama Clemson Texas A&M West Virginia
9 Alabama Clemson Ohio State Michigan
10 Alabama Clemson Ohio State Washington

THE ACC/CFP RANKINGS
RANK TEAM REC MASSEY SAGARIN
1 Clemson 9-0 1 1
2 Louisville 8-1 2 2
3 North Carolina 7-2 5 5
4 Virginia Tech 7-2 4 4
5 Florida State 6-3 3 3
6 Pittsburgh 5-4 7 7
7 Miami 5-4 6 6
8 Georgia Tech 5-4 8 9
9 Wake Forest 6-3 9 11
10 Syracuse 4-5 11 12
11 North Carolina State 4-5 10 8
12 Boston College 4-5 12 14
13 Duke 3-6 13 10
14 Virginia 2-7 14 13

Records shown against the Vegas spread (starting next week) utilize the Danny Sheridan opening line.  The spreads below are ones created by the Book.

Last Week's record:  Won 30 Lost 28 Tied 1 .517 winning percentage
Season record:  Won 257 Lost 255 Tied 10 .502 winning percentage


NATIONAL/ACC SPREADS
FAVORITE SPREAD UNDERDOG
Western Michigan 26.5 at Kent State
North Carolina 16.7 at Duke
at Florida State 33.1 Boston College
at Clemson 31.6 Pittsburgh
at Virginia Tech 20.0 Georgia Tech
at Louisville 32.6 Wake Forest
North Carolina State 5.7 at Syracuse
at Oklahoma 17.5 Baylor
Colorado 29.6 at Arizona
at Washington 14.8 USC
Stanford 7.0 at Oregon
at Washington State 25.5 California
at Alabama 38.5 Mississippi State
LSU 6.8 at Arkansas
Auburn 11.4 at Georgia
at Texas A&M 11.0 Mississippi
Miami FL 13.8 at Virginia
at Oklahoma State 20.6 Texas Tech
at Texas 1.2 West Virginia
Ohio State 36.1 at Maryland
Penn State 16.7 at Indiana
at Wisconsin 36.3 Illinois
Michigan 23.5 at Iowa