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The Book 2016: Week 10

A first look at how our poll compares to the CFP committee's poll. Eagles big dog again vs The 'Ville

By John Fidler Updated
The first real look at the chase for the sport's ultimate prize
The first real look at the chase for the sport's ultimate prize
Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports

Finally!  A chance to compare our polls to ones that ultimately will make the decision around which four teams will play in the College Football Playoff as well as those that will qualify for the other New Year's Six Bowls.

By now, most are aware that Alabama, Clemson, Michigan and Texas A&M comprise the committee's top four teams, with undefeated Washington and once beaten Ohio State the next two in order.  All along we've been touting the Aggies due to their strength of record, but believe it or not, as the committee put them in, we've taken them out!

What happened to A&M in our poll this week..well funny you should ask.  That strong strength of record took a hit by playing old friend Doug Martin and New Mexico State.

Below you will see our rankings for all 128 teams using all sorts of different metrics.  Not only will you see the CFP committee rankings, the Sagarin and Massey composite rankings, but you will also see three different Book created metrics.

The lead ranking is the strength of record ranking we've been using all season, the Power ranking is the one we use for point spreads and that hypothetical "best team" argument, while we now introduce the Combined rankings.  They use a weighted scale from the strength of schedule, power, as well as opponents strength of schedule and power rankings to give a balanced look at all of it.

Watching the selection show, I had four interesting takeaways as it relates to how we evaluate teams.

  1. Of the criteria the CFP chair Kirby Hocutt was willing to share as to why Texas A&M was ahead of Washington, he referenced wins over teams with plus .500 records.  Well as we know and have been discussing all along, not all records are created the same. Within the Book poll there are many examples of teams where with inferior records, even sub .500 ones are ranked ahead of those with plus .500 records.
  2. The A&M over Washington argument also goes to the heart of the CFP style rankings we are using this season to measure relative records and has already proven that a team with an inferior record, even among Power Five schools, can be considered a superior team.
  3. There was mention that in the past two seasons, one team ranked 15 or below in the initial poll has made the playoff.  There were a lot more one loss teams though and this year, with both the Pac 12 (outside of Washington) and the Big 12 struggling, and so many teams with multiple losses already, there is better than 50/50 chance that this year for the first time, two teams from the same conference make the playoff.
  4. Vegas backs us with Ohio State.  If you noticed the graphic regarding how the Westgate Vegas Sports Book laid current odds on Alabama vs the other top six contenders, the closest spread of any, vs our #3 team Ohio State at 6 1/2.
As for Boston College, the win over NC State certainly didn't put them in playoff contention, but it did wonders for their overall ranking across the spectrum, with the Book now showing the Eagles at #72 in the strength of record poll, #77 in the Power poll and #73 in the combined poll.  Another tall task though for BC taking on #7 Louisville with the Cardinals a massive 25.7 point favorite on Saturday at Alumni.

Enjoy the games and Go Eagles!

Note:  the Massey composite rankings are as of Tuesday evening, November 1.

CFP COMMITTEE STYLE RANKING
RANK TEAM RECORD POWER COMBINED CFP SAGARIN MASSEY
1 Alabama Crimson Tide 8-0 1 1 1 1 1
2 Clemson Tigers 8-0 2 2 2 4 3
3 Ohio State Buckeyes 7-1 5 3 6 3 4
4 Michigan Wolverines 8-0 4 4 3 2 2
5 Washington Huskies 8-0 3 9 5 5 5
6 Texas A&M Aggies 7-1 11 6 4 9 6
7 Louisville Cardinals 7-1 7 8 7 7 7
8 Wisconsin Badgers 6-2 14 7 8 11 9
9 North Carolina Tar Heels 6-2 12 10 21 28 25
10 Auburn Tigers 6-2 6 5 9 6 8
11 West Virginia Mountaineers 6-1 22 19 20 21 18
12 Western Michigan Broncos 8-0 23 23 23 24 10
13 Utah Utes 7-1 29 18 16 31 24
14 Nebraska Cornhuskers 7-1 24 20 10 23 11
15 Oklahoma Sooners 6-2 13 14 14 10 20
16 Penn State Nittany Lions 6-2 17 13 12 26 14
17 Virginia Tech Hokies 6-2 15 16 19 14 16
18 Florida State Seminoles 5-3 10 11 22 12 22
19 Colorado Buffaloes 6-2 16 15 15 17 12
20 Washington State Cougars 6-2 18 21 25 20 17
21 Boise State Broncos 7-1 43 27 24 32 19
22 Stanford Cardinal 5-3 20 17 - 19 27
23 USC Trojans 5-3 9 12 - 15 21
24 Oklahoma State Cowboys 6-2 21 24 18 25 29
25 Florida Gators 6-1 19 26 11 13 13
26 LSU Tigers 5-2 8 22 13 8 15
27 South Florida Bulls 7-2 36 28 - 40 31
28 Houston Cougars 7-2 35 30 - 30 28
29 Arkansas Razorbacks 5-3 48 33 - 42 36
30 Tennessee Volunteers 5-3 33 25 - 22 23
31 Baylor Bears 6-1 27 35 17 18 26
32 Navy Midshipmen 5-2 44 40 - 58 46
33 Tulsa Golden Hurricane 6-2 45 42 - 56 37
34 San Diego State Aztecs 7-1 34 38 - 44 34
35 Wyoming Cowboys 6-2 66 54 - 84 47
36 Kansas State Wildcats 5-3 32 34 - 37 45
37 Pittsburgh Panthers 5-3 30 29 - 36 32
38 Troy Trojans 6-1 73 58 - 65 30
39 Appalachian St. Mountaineers 6-2 56 51 - 59 35
40 Kentucky Wildcats 5-3 50 39 - 66 50
41 Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets 5-3 47 41 - 47 44
42 Minnesota Golden Gophers 6-2 46 46 - 45 33
43 BYU Cougars 4-4 27 31 - 39 42
44 Texas Longhorns 4-4 38 36 - 35 55
45 Arizona State Sun Devils 5-4 63 49 - 50 51
46 Northwestern Wildcats 4-4 25 32 - 38 38
47 California Golden Bears 4-4 51 45 - 52 52
48 Temple Owls 6-3 41 44 - 49 39
49 Iowa Hawkeyes 5-3 40 48 - 33 40
50 Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders 6-2 74 67 - 71 54
51 Toledo Rockets 6-2 68 66 - 53 49
52 Georgia Bulldogs 4-4 52 50 - 55 57
53 Syracuse Orange 4-4 70 56 - 75 69
54 South Carolina Gamecocks 4-4 71 59 - 73 68
55 Indiana Hoosiers 4-4 54 53 - 61 62
56 Western Kentucky Hilltoppers 6-3 42 52 - 51 43
57 Wake Forest Demon Deacons 5-3 69 63 - 68 61
58 Ole Miss Rebels 3-5 26 37 - 16 41
59 Miami-Florida Hurricanes 4-4 31 43 - 27 48
60 Memphis Tigers 5-3 72 68 - 57 63
61 Louisiana Tech Bulldogs 6-3 60 65 - 67 58
62 Texas Tech Red Raiders 4-4 49 61 - 46 65
63 Maryland Terrapins 5-3 75 69 - 64 56
64 Ohio University Bobcats 6-3 80 76 - 91 73
65 N.C. State Wolfpack 4-4 55 57 - 48 59
66 Vanderbilt Commodores 4-4 59 60 - 69 64
67 UCLA Bruins 3-5 37 47 - 29 53
67 New Mexico Lobos 5-3 78 79 - 92 79
69 TCU Horned Frogs 4-4 57 62 - 34 66
70 SMU Mustangs 4-4 83 74 - 86 71
71 Notre Dame Fighting Irish 3-5 39 55 - 41 75
72 Boston College Eagles 4-4 77 73 - 76 78
73 Southern Miss Golden Eagles 5-3 85 75 - 83 72
74 Central Michigan Chippewas 5-4 91 80 - 89 81
75 Army Black Knights 5-3 86 85 - 72 77
76 UCF Knights 4-4 64 70 - 63 67
77 Old Dominion Monarchs 5-3 101 94 - 101 83
78 Cincinnati Bearcats 4-4 89 83 - 87 87
79 Akron Zips 5-4 102 90 - 96 84
80 Air Force Falcons 5-3 90 87 - 77 70
81 South Alabama Jaguars 4-4 108 97 - 102 88
82 Oregon Ducks 3-5 53 64 - 43 60
83 Eastern Michigan Eagles 5-4 103 96 - 112 89
84 Hawaii Warriors 4-5 96 95 - 103 100
85 Idaho Vandals 4-4 113 101 - 117 94
86 Colorado State Rams 4-4 79 82 - 88 74
87 Duke Blue Devils 3-5 58 71 - 62 80
88 Purdue Boilermakers 3-5 92 88 - 99 104
89 Mississippi St. Bulldogs 3-5 62 75 - 54 76
90 Oregon State Beavers 2-6 67 72 - 78 82
91 North Texas Mean Green 4-4 107 105 - 110 98
92 East Carolina Pirates 3-5 81 86 - 79 90
93 Arkansas State Red Wolves 3-4 95 98 - 93 93
94 Virginia Cavaliers 2-6 61 77 - 80 95
95 Texas-San Antonio Roadrunners 4-4 109 102 - 109 99
96 Georgia Southern Eagles 4-4 100 104 - 94 85
97 Michigan State Spartans 2-6 65 78 - 60 86
98 Arizona Wildcats 2-6 84 84 - 74 91
99 Ball State Cardinals 4-4 104 107 - 98 105
100 Rutgers Scarlet Knights 2-6 97 93 - 104 101
101 Utah State Aggies 4-4 94 103 - 85 96
102 Louisiana Ragin Cajuns 3-4 111 110 - 113 108
103 Illinois Fighting Illini 2-6 88 92 - 82 97
104 Tulane Green Wave 3-5 106 108 - 97 103
105 Missouri Tigers 2-6 82 89 - 70 92
106 Connecticut Huskies 3-6 98 99 - 95 106
107 Iowa St. Cyclones 1-7 76 91 - 81 109
108 Northern Illinois Huskies 2-6 87 100 - 90 102
109 Miami-Ohio Redhawks 3-6 93 106 - 111 110
110 Charlotte 49ers 3-5 123 118 - 126 117
111 Nevada Wolf Pack 3-5 110 115 - 108 114
112 Texas State Bobcats 2-5 127 121 - 128 125
113 San Jose State Spartans 3-6 115 112 - 115 113
114 UNLV Rebels 3-6 112 114 - 105 112
115 New Mexico State Aggies 2-6 122 116 - 124 115
116 FIU Panthers 3-6 118 117 - 121 116
117 Kansas Jayhawks 1-7 116 111 - 116 122
118 Kent State Golden Flashes 3-6 99 109 - 107 107
119 ULM Warhawks 2-6 128 124 - 127 120
120 Texas-El Paso Miners 2-6 121 125 - 125 123
121 Georgia State Panthers 2-6 105 113 - 100 111
122 Marshall Thundering Herd 2-6 114 122 - 106 118
123 Massachusetts Minutemen 2-7 119 120 - 114 119
124 Buffalo Bulls 2-6 125 127 - 122 124
125 Bowling Green Falcons 1-7 117 119 - 119 121
126 Rice Owls 1-7 124 126 - 120 127
127 Florida Atlantic Owls 1-7 126 128 - 123 128
128 Fresno State Bulldogs 1-8 120 123 - 118 126

Here is a week by week look at the CFP style top 4:

TOP 4 - WEEK BY WEEK
AFTER WEEK #1 #2 #3 #4
1 Houston Wisconsin Florida State Texas
2 Alabama Wisconsin Texas Arkansas
3 Alabama Ohio State Texas A&M Houston
4 Texas A&M Alabama Wisconsin Stanford
5 Texas A&M Alabama Clemson Tennessee
6 Texas A&M Alabama Clemson Michigan
7 Alabama Clemson Texas A&M Ohio State
8 Alabama Clemson Texas A&M West Virginia
9 Alabama Clemson Ohio State Michigan

THE ACC/CFP RANKINGS
RANK TEAM REC MASSEY SAGARIN
1 Clemson 8-0 1 1
2 Louisville 7-1 2 2
3 North Carolina 6-2 5 6
4 Virginia Tech 6-2 3 4
5 Florida State 5-3 4 3
6 Pittsburgh 5-3 6 7
7 Georgia Tech 5-3 7 8
8 Syracuse 4-4 11 12
9 Wake Forest 5-3 10 11
10 Miami 4-4 8 5
11 North Carolina State 4-4 9 9
12 Boston College 4-4 12 13
13 Duke 3-5 13 10
14 Virginia 2-6 14 14

Records shown against the Vegas spread (starting next week) utilize the Danny Sheridan opening line.  The spreads below are ones created by the Book.

Last Week's record:  Won 25 Lost 26 Tied 1 .490 winning percentage
Season record:  Won 226 Lost 228 Tied 9 .498 winning percentage


NATIONAL/ACC SPREADS
FAVORITE SPREAD UNDERDOG
Oklahoma 21.5 at Iowa State
at Colorado 14.2 UCLA
Louisville 25.7 at Boston College
at Clemson 36.6 Syracuse
Virginia Tech 15.0 at Duke
Florida State 14.7 at North Carolina State
at North Carolina 19.9 Georgia Tech
at Miami 2.2 Pittsburgh
at Wake Forest 0.9 Virginia
at Washington State 29.3 Arizona
at USC 23.7 Oregon
at Stanford 22.7 Oregon State
Washington 21.9 at California
Florida 7.2 at Arkansas
at Auburn 28.8 Vanderbilt
Alabama 9.6 at LSU
Texas A&M 15.8 at Mississippi State
at West Virginia 41.3 Kansas
Oklahoma State 0.4 at Kansas State
at Michigan 35.7 Maryland
Wisconsin 3.4 at Northwestern
at Penn State 16.4 Iowa
at Ohio State 18.3 Nebraska

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