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The Book 2016: Week 6

Eagles large dog at home vs Tigers. A&M stays on top as the SEC claims three of the top four spots.

By John Fidler
Tennessee's Hail Mary gets the Vols into the top four
Tennessee's Hail Mary gets the Vols into the top four
Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports

Week 6 of the Book and with it, we are beginning to see a CFP Committee style ranking that looks more and more in line with the Massey composite, Sagarin and Book power poll rankings.  Whereas we saw teams like Army, Texas State and South Alabama high in the rankings at inception, of the teams now listed in our Top 25 only two of them (Air Force and Arizona State) now do not appear in at least one of either Massey's, Sagarin's or The Book's Top 25 power poll.

This should be the norm as we go through the rest of the season and the cream rises to the top, but it also creates some interesting discussions around teams that the Book likes for no seemingly great reason or dislikes for similar non descript reasons.

For an example, I give you Maryland, #27 in the Book CFP poll.  4-0 but with wins over Howard, FIU, UCF and Purdue.  Why so high.  No losses.  Maryland therefore has taken no negative ratings, because they haven't lost any games.  But they sit last among all undefeated teams in the CFP poll and a much more realistic #51 in the Book's power poll version.

Expect to see teams rise slowly and fall quickly with losses throughout the season.  But this is not a sprint and all games count, so teams who lose, like Louisville, falling to #15 in the CFP style poll, but #4 in the power poll, almost assuredly will be heard from again.

Texas A&M continues to lead the way this week.  The Aggies are just slightly ahead of #2 Alabama, with Clemson and Tennessee next.  Three of the top four out of the SEC.  That has to change with UT drawing A&M and then Alabama in the next two weeks.  Win those two and the Vols will be number 1 with a bullet.

As for the Eagles, the win over Buffalo helped them marginally in both the Book power and CFP polls. BC is now #79 in the country, #11 in the ACC in the CFP poll and #74 in the power poll.

The Book though is definitely not bullish on BC this Friday night vs Clemson.  We've all seen spreads between 16.5 and 18 for the battle vs the Tigers, but the Book is predicting an even bigger blowout taking CU by 23.8 points.

Last week we gave back some of our hard earned gains and now sit just one game above .500 for the season.

Enjoy the games and Go Eagles!

Note:  the Massey composite rankings are as of Tuesday night, October 4.

CFP COMMITTEE STYLE RANKING
RANK TEAM RECORD MASSEY SAGARIN
1 Texas A&M Aggies 5-0 5 7
2 Alabama Crimson Tide 5-0 2 2
3 Clemson Tigers 5-0 4 4
4 Tennessee Volunteers 5-0 8 15
5 Michigan Wolverines 5-0 1 3
6 West Virginia Mountaineers 4-0 17 35
7 Houston Cougars 5-0 6 9
8 Ohio State Buckeyes 4-0 3 1
9 Nebraska Cornhuskers 5-0 14 20
10 Washington Huskies 5-0 7 6
11 Wisconsin Badgers 4-1 11 14
12 North Carolina Tar Heels 4-1 19 25
13 Stanford Cardinal 3-1 13 12
14 Western Michigan Broncos 5-0 12 24
15 Louisville Cardinals 4-1 9 5
16 Boise State Broncos 4-0 18 27
17 Baylor Bears 5-0 21 23
18 Miami-Florida Hurricanes 4-0 10 16
19 Utah Utes 4-1 32 37
20 Florida State Seminoles 3-2 16 13
21 Colorado Buffaloes 4-1 26 28
22 Arizona State Sun Devils 4-1 37 48
23 Air Force Falcons 4-0 29 55
24 Arkansas Razorbacks 4-1 25 31
25 Ole Miss Rebels 3-2 15 10
26 California Golden Bears 3-2 43 53
27 Maryland Terrapins 4-0 31 51
28 Florida Gators 4-1 20 22
29 South Florida Bulls 4-1 30 34
30 Auburn Tigers 3-2 23 17
31 UCLA Bruins 3-2 28 19
32 Georgia Bulldogs 3-2 34 49
33 Wake Forest Demon Deacons 4-1 48 74
34 Virginia Tech Hokies 3-1 22 21
35 Troy Trojans 4-1 33 58
36 Indiana Hoosiers 3-1 54 59
37 Penn State Nittany Lions 3-2 50 54
38 LSU Tigers 3-2 27 11
39 Oklahoma State Cowboys 3-2 42 30
40 Oklahoma Sooners 2-2 24 8
41 Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets 3-2 36 44
42 Tulsa Golden Hurricane 3-1 63 67
43 N.C. State Wolfpack 3-1 38 43
44 Pittsburgh Panthers 3-2 46 38
45 Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders 4-1 65 75
46 Texas Tech Red Raiders 3-1 45 41
47 USC Trojans 2-3 35 26
48 Appalachian St. Mountaineers 3-2 44 65
49 Memphis Tigers 3-1 41 36
50 Southern Miss Golden Eagles 4-1 55 72
51 TCU Horned Frogs 3-2 39 18
52 Toledo Rockets 3-1 51 39
53 Eastern Michigan Eagles 4-1 88 116
54 Minnesota Golden Gophers 3-1 62 64
55 Texas Longhorns 2-2 67 47
56 BYU Cougars 2-3 53 45
57 Army Black Knights 3-1 71 61
58 San Diego State Aztecs 3-1 56 63
59 South Alabama Jaguars 3-2 80 99
60 Navy Midshipmen 3-1 47 60
61 Central Michigan Chippewas 3-2 69 86
62 Georgia Southern Eagles 3-1 52 83
63 Michigan State Spartans 2-2 58 50
64 Cincinnati Bearcats 3-2 74 81
65 Akron Zips 3-2 78 90
66 Iowa Hawkeyes 3-2 60 32
67 UCF Knights 3-2 59 62
68 Kansas State Wildcats 2-2 49 29
69 Texas State Bobcats 2-2 95 123
70 Northwestern Wildcats 2-3 64 52
71 Western Kentucky Hilltoppers 3-2 68 70
72 Mississippi St. Bulldogs 2-2 57 46
73 Washington State Cougars 2-2 40 33
74 Hawaii Warriors 2-3 102 110
75 Wyoming Cowboys 3-2 84 96
76 Ohio University Bobcats 3-2 81 87
77 Vanderbilt Commodores 2-3 75 71
78 Kentucky Wildcats 2-3 79 76
79 Boston College Eagles 3-2 66 66
80 Rutgers Scarlet Knights 2-3 89 92
81 South Carolina Gamecocks 2-3 77 68
82 Purdue Boilermakers 2-2 97 100
83 Tulane Green Wave 3-2 82 93
84 Notre Dame Fighting Irish 2-3 76 40
85 Old Dominion Monarchs 3-2 93 105
86 Virginia Cavaliers 2-3 85 78
87 Temple Owls 3-2 73 69
88 Ball State Cardinals 3-2 96 95
89 Syracuse Orange 2-3 92 84
90 Arizona Wildcats 2-3 72 57
91 Oregon Ducks 2-3 61 42
92 Missouri Tigers 2-3 70 56
93 Duke Blue Devils 2-3 90 73
94 East Carolina Pirates 2-3 86 85
95 Idaho Vandals 2-3 106 118
96 Utah State Aggies 2-3 87 80
97 Illinois Fighting Illini 1-3 91 77
98 New Mexico Lobos 2-2 104 97
99 Connecticut Huskies 2-3 94 91
100 SMU Mustangs 2-3 105 103
101 ULM Warhawks 1-3 109 119
102 Oregon State Beavers 1-3 99 89
103 Louisiana Tech Bulldogs 2-3 83 79
104 Iowa St. Cyclones 1-4 100 82
105 Marshall Thundering Herd 1-3 98 88
106 New Mexico State Aggies 2-3 114 125
107 UNLV Rebels 2-3 108 98
108 North Texas Mean Green 2-3 117 124
109 Nevada Wolf Pack 2-3 111 104
110 Colorado State Rams 2-3 103 102
111 Louisiana Ragin Cajuns 2-3 101 111
112 Texas-San Antonio Roadrunners 1-3 122 121
113 Kansas Jayhawks 1-3 118 108
114 Northern Illinois Huskies 1-4 107 94
115 Massachusetts Minutemen 1-4 112 106
116 Texas-El Paso Miners 1-4 126 127
117 Buffalo Bulls 1-3 119 122
118 Fresno State Bulldogs 1-4 120 112
119 Bowling Green Falcons 1-4 113 120
120 Georgia State Panthers 0-4 110 107
121 Florida Atlantic Owls 1-4 123 114
122 Kent State Golden Flashes 1-4 115 115
123 FIU Panthers 1-4 125 126
124 San Jose State Spartans 1-4 121 109
125 Charlotte 49ers 1-4 128 128
126 Arkansas State Red Wolves 0-4 116 101
127 Rice Owls 0-5 127 117
128 Miami-Ohio Redhawks 0-5 124 113

Here is a week by week look at the CFP style top 4:

TOP 4 - WEEK BY WEEK
AFTER WEEK #1 #2 #3 #4
1 Houston Wisconsin Florida State Texas
2 Alabama Wisconsin Texas Arkansas
3 Alabama Ohio State Texas A&M Houston
4 Texas A&M Alabama Wisconsin Stanford
5 Texas A&M Alabama Clemson Tennessee

THE ACC/CFP RANKINGS
RANK TEAM REC MASSEY SAGARIN
1 Clemson 5-0 4 4
2 North Carolina 4-1 19 25
3 Louisville 4-1 9 5
4 Miami 4-0 10 16
5 Florida State 3-2 16 13
6 Wake Forest 4-1 48 74
7 Virginia Tech 3-1 22 21
8 Georgia Tech 3-2 36 44
9 North Carolina State 3-1 38 43
10 Pittsburgh 3-2 46 38
11 Boston College 3-2 66 66
12 Virginia 2-3 85 78
13 Syracuse 2-3 92 84
14 Duke 2-3 90 73

Records shown against the Vegas spread (starting next week) utilize the Danny Sheridan opening line.  The spreads below are ones created by the Book.

Week Record:  Won 24 Lost 30 Tied 4 .448 winning percentage
Season Record:  Won 122 Lost 121 Tied 7 .502 winning percentage


NATIONAL/ACC SPREADS
FAVORITE SPREAD UNDERDOG
Clemson 23.8 at Boston College
at Duke 8.6 Army
at NC State 5.1 Notre Dame
Alabama 17.9 at Arkansas
LSU 2.0 at Florida
Auburn 4.1 at Mississippi St.
at Texas A&M 7.8 Tennessee
UCLA 3.6 at Arizona State
at USC 5.7 Colorado
Washington 14.8 at Oregon
at Stanford 12.8 Washington St.
at Pittsburgh 6.0 Georgia Tech
at North Carolina 9.6 Virginia Tech
at Wake Forest 11.2 Syracuse
Oklahoma 9.3 Texas
Michigan 31.2 at Rutgers
at Ohio State 38.9 Indiana
at Miami 4.1 Florida State
Houston 21.4 at Navy
at South Florida 29.4 East Carolina
at Penn State 4.0 Maryland
Cincinnati 0.3 at Connecticut
at Kansas State 7.3 Texas Tech
at Old Dominion 15.3 UMass

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