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The Book 2016: Week 9

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One more week before we get to compare our results to the CFP committee. Bama solidly #1. Eagles once again huge dog, this time at NC State.

Where are the Huskies?
Where are the Huskies?
Jennifer Buchanan-USA TODAY Sports

One more week.  Just one more week of speculation around how the College Football Playoff committee will rank their teams and polls like this one and like the 100 plus that make up the Massey Composite rankings along with I am sure hundreds of others that people like myself due for fun, whether scientific or opinion based, will become a bit less relevant.  Ok..it's been irrelevant from the start..but cut me some slack!

The truth is I enjoy looking at how the various polls forecast and different ways of looking at answering the same question around how we stack rank the best teams in college football.

Remember, although I will be interested in how it all comes out next Tuesday night, my goal is not to match what the committee comes up with then and it honestly isn't even meant to mimic what they come up with for the final poll which will determine the playoff teams on December 4.  This is really about a way for me to quantify from several different viewpoints, who is the best.  Comparing it and hearing their rationale as opposed to what this formula will spit out will be enjoyable and I tweak it all the time, but I know over the past two years looking at the committee, the Book has been pretty spot on.

Next week I will share with you the CFP committee style rankings, plus the power rankings, plus the combined rankings which by then, will take into account  opponents' strength of schedule as well and we can take a look at how that fares vs the humans.

For this week though, we have a #1 and a decisive one at that. Alabama's win over Texas A&M has put the Tide in a dominant position in both the CFP-worthiness poll and the power poll.  They actually are so far ahead of Clemson in the CFP style poll and Michigan in the power poll, it is conceivable they could lose a game and still be ranked #1.  This is the largest margin we have seen in some time.

Speaking of losing and staying highly ranked, I give you the loser of that game, A&M.  Although the Aggies are #7 in the power poll, their strength of record is still #3 as the loss to Alabama, taken from the perspective simply of wins and losses, has a minimal impact with Bama as the #1 team in the land.

Clemson and West Virginia join Bama and A&M as this week's top four.  Notably absent then are Michigan and Washington and the reason is pretty obvious, who they have beaten.  Although one could argue that Michigan's wins over Colorado and Penn State look better now than they did at the time, one of the premise that we need to evaluate is who you beat and when you beat them.  On Washington's resume, non conference wins over Rutgers, Portland State and Idaho, won't garner much.  It also leaves the Huskies with a razor thin margin for error going forward.

If you are interested in this week's power poll comparison, the top 10 there are:  1) Alabama, 2) Michigan, 3) Ohio State, 4) Clemson, 5) Washington, 6) Louisville, 7) Texas A&M, 8) Auburn, 9) LSU, 10) Florida State.

One of the things I do think I like is that the various polls and our CFP style rankings are becoming more and more similar, with the very notable exception of some power five teams with excessive losses, such as Ole Miss. This formula doesn't take kind to losing and so although the Rebels are #21 in the power poll, they are #56 in the worthiness poll.

As for BC, you gotta dig pretty deep to find our Eagles who are all the way down at #91 in both the power and worthiness polls, pretty consistent or near where Sagarin and Massey place them.  BC is a huge 21.5 point underdog at NC State this week and that takes into account the beat down Louisville handed the Wolfpack last Saturday.  My personal opinion is that 21 1/2 is a bit too much, but the Book did get it right last week, picking Syracuse for the outright win over the Eagles.

Enjoy the games and Go Eagles!

CFP COMMITTEE STYLE RANKING
RANK TEAM REC SAGARIN
MASSEY
1 Alabama Crimson Tide 8-0 1 1
2 Clemson Tigers 7-0 4 3
3 Texas A&M Aggies 6-1 9 7
4 West Virginia Mountaineers 6-0 15 8
5 Michigan Wolverines 7-0 2 2
6 Ohio State Buckeyes 6-1 3 4
7 North Carolina Tar Heels 6-2 30 26
8 Utah Utes 7-1 33 23
9 Nebraska Cornhuskers 7-0 24 13
10 Washington Huskies 7-0 5 5
11 Boise State Broncos 7-0 26 12
12 Louisville Cardinals 6-1 6 6
13 Florida State Seminoles 5-2 13 16
14 Western Michigan Broncos 8-0 23 9
15 Wisconsin Badgers 5-2 10 11
16 Oklahoma Sooners 5-2 11 21
17 Colorado Buffaloes 6-2 18 15
18 Penn State Nittany Lions 5-2 31 22
19 Auburn Tigers 5-2 7 10
20 Tennessee Volunteers 5-2 21 14
21 Washington State Cougars 5-2 20 20
22 LSU Tigers 5-2 8 18
23 Stanford Cardinal 4-3 22 28
24 Baylor Bears 6-0 14 17
25 Virginia Tech Hokies 5-2 17 24
26 Navy Midshipmen 5-1 54 32
27 USC Trojans 4-3 19 25
28 Pittsburgh Panthers 5-2 37 31
29 Florida Gators 5-1 16 19
30 Arkansas Razorbacks 5-3 40 36
31 Arizona State Sun Devils 5-3 45 40
32 Oklahoma State Cowboys 5-2 28 37
33 Troy Trojans 6-1 65 30
34 Toledo Rockets 6-1 46 29
35 Houston Cougars 6-2 27 27
36 South Florida Bulls 6-2 39 35
37 San Diego State Aztecs 6-1 55 42
38 BYU Cougars 4-4 36 38
39 Northwestern Wildcats 4-3 44 43
40 Wake Forest Demon Deacons 5-2 62 47
41 California Golden Bears 4-3 50 50
42 Kansas State Wildcats 4-3 35 51
43 Appalachian St. Mountaineers 5-2 61 39
44 Georgia Bulldogs 4-3 52 56
45 Tulsa Golden Hurricane 5-2 68 55
46 Kentucky Wildcats 4-3 72 61
47 N.C. State Wolfpack 4-3 41 46
48 Minnesota Golden Gophers 5-2 53 41
49 Memphis Tigers 5-2 43 45
50 Iowa Hawkeyes 5-3 34 44
51 Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets 4-3 47 49
52 Wyoming Cowboys 5-2 91 59
53 Miami-Florida Hurricanes 4-3 25 34
54 Maryland Terrapins 5-2 63 54
55 Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders 5-2 66 58
56 Ole Miss Rebels 3-4 12 33
57 Central Michigan Chippewas 5-3 84 66
58 TCU Horned Frogs 4-3 32 52
59 Syracuse Orange 4-4 71 69
60 Temple Owls 5-3 51 48
61 Akron Zips 5-3 93 71
62 Texas Longhorns 3-4 38 64
63 Western Kentucky Hilltoppers 5-3 58 57
64 Eastern Michigan Eagles 5-3 108 73
65 Vanderbilt Commodores 4-4 70 65
66 Cincinnati Bearcats 4-3 83 81
67 Louisiana Tech Bulldogs 5-3 73 62
68 UCF Knights 4-3 64 60
69 UCLA Bruins 3-5 29 53
70 Indiana Hoosiers 3-4 59 63
71 Hawaii Warriors 4-4 100 96
72 North Texas Mean Green 4-3 106 91
73 New Mexico Lobos 4-3 94 84
74 SMU Mustangs 3-4 85 76
75 South Carolina Gamecocks 3-4 77 85
76 Ohio University Bobcats 5-3 95 88
77 Texas Tech Red Raiders 3-4 48 67
78 Duke Blue Devils 3-4 60 74
79 Southern Miss Golden Eagles 4-3 86 77
80 Purdue Boilermakers 3-4 96 100
81 Old Dominion Monarchs 4-3 104 92
82 Oregon State Beavers 2-5 78 78
83 Georgia Southern Eagles 4-3 89 75
84 Air Force Falcons 4-3 74 70
85 Idaho Vandals 4-4 114 95
86 Colorado State Rams 4-4 87 72
87 South Alabama Jaguars 3-4 105 99
88 Army Black Knights 4-3 76 90
89 Notre Dame Fighting Irish 2-5 42 82
90 Virginia Cavaliers 2-5 80 97
91 Boston College Eagles 3-4 82 94
92 Utah State Aggies 4-3 79 86
93 Arizona Wildcats 2-5 69 83
94 Oregon Ducks 2-5 49 68
95 Michigan State Spartans 2-5 67 89
96 Tulane Green Wave 3-4 98 98
97 Mississippi St. Bulldogs 2-5 56 79
98 Illinois Fighting Illini 2-5 75 87
99 Connecticut Huskies 3-5 90 93
100 Arkansas State Red Wolves 2-4 97 101
101 Missouri Tigers 2-5 57 80
102 Ball State Cardinals 4-4 99 105
103 East Carolina Pirates 2-5 88 103
104 Rutgers Scarlet Knights 2-6 102 104
105 Texas-San Antonio Roadrunners 3-4 112 109
106 Louisiana Ragin Cajuns 3-4 111 108
107 Iowa St. Cyclones 1-6 81 107
108 UNLV Rebels 3-5 107 110
109 ULM Warhawks 2-5 123 115
110 Georgia State Panthers 2-5 101 106
111 Texas-El Paso Miners 2-5 126 124
112 FIU Panthers 3-5 122 118
113 Northern Illinois Huskies 2-6 92 102
114 Charlotte 49ers 3-5 125 117
115 Nevada Wolf Pack 3-5 109 114
116 Texas State Bobcats 2-5 128 126
117 New Mexico State Aggies 2-5 124 116
118 Kansas Jayhawks 1-6 110 121
119 Marshall Thundering Herd 2-5 103 111
120 Miami-Ohio Redhawks 2-6 115 113
121 San Jose State Spartans 2-6 118 119
122 Rice Owls 1-6 119 123
123 Kent State Golden Flashes 2-6 113 112
124 Florida Atlantic Owls 1-6 121 127
125 Massachusetts Minutemen 1-7 116 122
126 Fresno State Bulldogs 1-7 117 125
127 Bowling Green Falcons 1-7 120 120
128 Buffalo Bulls 1-6 127 128

Here is a week by week look at the CFP style top 4:

TOP 4 - WEEK BY WEEK
AFTER WEEK #1 #2 #3 #4
1 Houston Wisconsin Florida State Texas
2 Alabama Wisconsin Texas Arkansas
3 Alabama Ohio State Texas A&M Houston
4 Texas A&M Alabama Wisconsin Stanford
5 Texas A&M Alabama Clemson Tennessee
6 Texas A&M Alabama Clemson Michigan
7 Alabama Clemson Texas A&M Ohio State
8 Alabama Clemson Texas A&M West Virginia

THE ACC/CFP RANKINGS
RANK TEAM REC SAGARIN

MASSEY

1 Clemson 7-0 4 3
2 North Carolina 6-2 30 26
3 Louisville 6-1 6 6
4 Florida State 5-2 13 16
5 Virginia Tech 5-2 17 24
6 Pittsburgh 5-2 37 31
7 Wake Forest 5-2 62 47
8 North Carolina State 4-3 41 46
9 Georgia Tech 4-3 47 49
10 Miami 4-3 25 34
11 Syracuse 4-4 71 69
12 Duke 3-4 60 74
13 Virginia 2-5 80 97
14 Boston College 3-4 82 94

Records shown against the Vegas spread (starting next week) utilize the Danny Sheridan opening line.  The spreads below are ones created by the Book.

Week Record:  Won  29 Lost  25 Tied  0 winning percentage .537
Season Record:  Won  201 Lost 202 Tied  8 winning percentage .499


NATIONAL/ACC SPREADS
FAVORITE SPREAD UNDERDOG
Virginia Tech 1.8 at Pittsburgh
at USC 21.2 California
Stanford 16.5 at Arizona
Washington 10.7 at Utah
Washington State 20.1 at Oregon State
Baylor 2.1 at Texas
at Wake Forest 21.0 Army
Auburn 4.4 at Mississippi
Tennessee 15.1 South Carolina
at Texas A&M 57.9 New Mexico State
at Oklahoma 45.1 Kansas
West Virginia 4.9 at Oklahoma State
at North Carolina State 21.5 Boston College
Clemson 1.0 at Florida State
at Georgia Tech 8.2 Duke
Louisville 25.5 at Virginia
Michigan 31.1 at Michigan State
Penn State 18.7 at Purdue
Florida 8.9 Georgia
Miami 0.4 at Notre Dame
at Ohio State 25.1 Northwestern
at Wisconsin 11.6 Nebraska
at South Florida 4.0 Navy
Boise State 13.1 at Wyoming