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The Book 2016: Week 8

Eagles now a dog vs 'Cuse. Underdogs condense the pack. Alabama now #1.

By John Fidler
Here come the Mountaineers
Here come the Mountaineers
Michael C. Johnson-USA TODAY Sports

We reach the midway point in the season and with it, the first of what are absolutely must win games for Boston College in their quest to return to a bowl game.  Most, if not all, agree the Eagles must get Saturday's game against Syracuse, along with the November 19 home finale vs UConn and then find a way to squeak one out at NC State or Wake, with both Louisville and Florida State seeming more than a bit out of reach.

The Vegas spread on this one is looking for a BC win, with the Eagles between a 4 1/2 and 6 point favorite.  The Book for its part, isn't buying any of it and has Syracuse as an oh so slight, 0.2 point favorite.

Speaking of The Book picking winners, not so good for week 7.  The weekend was dominated by underdogs covering larger spreads and had a very deliterious impact on my winning percentage, going just 21-31-1 for the week to once again, drop slightly below .500 for the season.

Underdogs were definitely the story of week 7.  Granted few won (Syracuse over Virginia Tech a notable example), but outside of Alabama-Tennessee, most of the favorites and even heavy favorites squeaked by.  Much like an accordion being pushed in, that did much  to condense the pack of teams, with the top and bottom both pushed toward the middle. Now it won't have a great deal of bearing on this week's CFP committee style ranking, but it definitely will have a bearing on the power poll we do as well and that power poll is what determines the values to be used in the poll you see below..so extremely important.

On the national scene, Bama's rout in Knoxville pushed the Tide above the idle A&M Aggies, although that will be settled on this Saturday in Tuscaloosa, with The Book and Vegas looking for another Alabama rout.

Look out for West Virginia.  Now much like Baylor, the Mountaineers haven't gotten to the meat of their schedule, but they are undefeated and hold the sixth best undefeated resume.  With those stronger, more highly ranked opponents still to come, it is not totally out of question that WVU could be in line for a playoff spot as Alabama and Texas A&M as well as Ohio State and Michigan, will effectively reduce their four spots down to two or fewer by the end of the season.

By the way, if I told you  before the season that there was a poll that had BC ranked within one spot of Notre Dame and one spot ahead of Michigan State, would you take it?  Such is the Massey aggregate poll, where the Eagles are #82, with the Irish #81 and Sparty in free fall at #83.

Enjoy the games and Go Eagles!

CFP COMMITTEE STYLE RANKING
RANK TEAM REC SAGARIN
MASSEY
1 Alabama Crimson Tide 7-0 1 1
2 Clemson Tigers 7-0 5 4
3 Texas A&M Aggies 6-0 7 5
4 Ohio State Buckeyes 6-0 2 3
5 Michigan Wolverines 6-0 3 2
6 Florida State Seminoles 5-2 13 10
7 West Virginia Mountaineers 5-0 26 11
8 Nebraska Cornhuskers 6-0 23 9
9 Washington Huskies 6-0 4 6
10 North Carolina Tar Heels 5-2 34 28
11 Western Michigan Broncos 7-0 18 8
12 Utah Utes 6-1 38 29
13 Stanford Cardinal 4-2 17 26
14 Boise State Broncos 6-0 30 15
15 Louisville Cardinals 5-1 6 7
16 Tennessee Volunteers 5-2 21 14
17 Houston Cougars 6-1 14 12
18 Oklahoma Sooners 4-2 9 17
19 Arkansas Razorbacks 5-2 29 22
20 Wisconsin Badgers 4-2 12 13
21 Baylor Bears 6-0 15 21
22 South Florida Bulls 6-1 35 27
23 Arizona State Sun Devils 5-2 47 40
24 USC Trojans 4-3 19 24
25 Pittsburgh Panthers 5-2 40 33
26 Colorado Buffaloes 5-2 25 19
27 Florida Gators 5-1 16 18
28 Auburn Tigers 4-2 11 16
29 Washington State Cougars 4-2 20 20
30 BYU Cougars 4-3 39 39
31 Navy Midshipmen 4-1 55 37
32 Penn State Nittany Lions 4-2 42 35
33 Memphis Tigers 5-1 37 32
34 Oklahoma State Cowboys 4-2 31 41
35 LSU Tigers 4-2 8 23
36 Troy Trojans 5-1 64 36
37 Virginia Tech Hokies 4-2 24 31
38 N.C. State Wolfpack 4-2 32 34
39 Wake Forest Demon Deacons 5-2 57 43
40 Miami-Florida Hurricanes 4-2 22 30
41 Iowa Hawkeyes 5-2 33 44
42 Toledo Rockets 5-1 46 38
43 Central Michigan Chippewas 5-2 80 56
44 Georgia Bulldogs 4-3 50 51
45 San Diego State Aztecs 5-1 62 50
46 Ole Miss Rebels 3-3 10 25
47 Appalachian St. Mountaineers 4-2 61 46
48 TCU Horned Frogs 4-2 27 45
49 Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets 4-3 45 48
50 Tulsa Golden Hurricane 4-2 69 55
51 Texas Longhorns 3-3 41 62
52 California Golden Bears 3-3 52 54
53 Northwestern Wildcats 3-3 44 49
54 Minnesota Golden Gophers 4-2 49 47
55 Wyoming Cowboys 4-2 90 58
56 Eastern Michigan Eagles 5-2 110 74
57 Kansas State Wildcats 3-3 36 52
58 UCLA Bruins 3-4 28 42
59 Kentucky Wildcats 3-3 75 67
60 Indiana Hoosiers 3-3 54 53
61 Maryland Terrapins 4-2 70 59
62 Akron Zips 4-3 92 77
63 Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders 4-2 72 65
64 Syracuse Orange 3-4 74 70
65 Vanderbilt Commodores 3-4 67 69
66 Air Force Falcons 4-2 71 57
67 Old Dominion Monarchs 4-2 96 73
68 Army Black Knights 4-2 63 78
69 Texas Tech Red Raiders 3-3 51 63
70 Western Kentucky Hilltoppers 4-3 66 64
71 Louisiana Tech Bulldogs 4-3 73 66
72 Idaho Vandals 4-3 113 89
73 Purdue Boilermakers 3-3 98 100
74 Cincinnati Bearcats 3-3 86 88
75 South Alabama Jaguars 3-3 105 98
76 Temple Owls 4-3 59 61
77 Boston College Eagles 3-3 79 82
78 UCF Knights 3-3 65 68
79 Duke Blue Devils 3-4 58 72
80 Oregon State Beavers 2-4 84 85
81 Hawaii Warriors 3-4 104 106
82 Michigan State Spartans 2-4 60 83
83 Southern Miss Golden Eagles 4-3 88 79
84 New Mexico Lobos 3-3 99 95
85 South Carolina Gamecocks 2-4 76 90
86 Tulane Green Wave 3-3 95 87
87 North Texas Mean Green 3-3 116 109
88 Mississippi St. Bulldogs 2-4 53 76
89 Connecticut Huskies 3-4 87 80
90 Virginia Cavaliers 2-4 77 91
91 Ohio University Bobcats 4-3 91 93
92 Oregon Ducks 2-4 48 60
93 Texas-San Antonio Roadrunners 3-3 107 99
94 Ball State Cardinals 4-3 94 97
95 Missouri Tigers 2-4 56 71
96 East Carolina Pirates 2-4 83 96
97 Georgia Southern Eagles 3-3 85 75
98 Notre Dame Fighting Irish 2-5 43 81
99 Illinois Fighting Illini 2-4 78 92
100 Rutgers Scarlet Knights 2-5 108 103
101 Colorado State Rams 3-4 89 84
102 Arizona Wildcats 2-5 68 86
103 UNLV Rebels 3-4 102 102
104 SMU Mustangs 2-4 100 104
105 Utah State Aggies 3-3 82 94
106 Arkansas State Red Wolves 2-4 97 101
107 ULM Warhawks 2-4 122 111
108 Texas State Bobcats 2-4 124 116
109 FIU Panthers 3-4 123 117
110 Marshall Thundering Herd 2-4 101 110
111 Iowa St. Cyclones 1-6 81 107
112 Nevada Wolf Pack 3-4 106 115
113 New Mexico State Aggies 2-4 127 118
114 Louisiana Ragin Cajuns 2-4 119 112
115 Kansas Jayhawks 1-5 109 120
116 Georgia State Panthers 1-5 103 108
117 Northern Illinois Huskies 1-6 93 105
118 Texas-El Paso Miners 1-5 126 128
119 San Jose State Spartans 2-5 114 119
120 Kent State Golden Flashes 2-5 111 113
121 Charlotte 49ers 2-5 128 124
122 Massachusetts Minutemen 1-6 117 122
123 Bowling Green Falcons 1-6 112 114
124 Miami-Ohio Redhawks 1-6 120 121
125 Fresno State Bulldogs 1-6 115 123
126 Buffalo Bulls 1-5 125 127
127 Rice Owls 0-6 118 125
128 Florida Atlantic Owls 1-6 121 126

Here is a week by week look at the CFP style top 4:

TOP 4 - WEEK BY WEEK
AFTER WEEK #1 #2 #3 #4
1 Houston Wisconsin Florida State Texas
2 Alabama Wisconsin Texas Arkansas
3 Alabama Ohio State Texas A&M Houston
4 Texas A&M Alabama Wisconsin Stanford
5 Texas A&M Alabama Clemson Tennessee
6 Texas A&M Alabama Clemson Michigan
7 Alabama Clemson Texas A&M Ohio State

THE ACC/CFP RANKINGS
RANK TEAM REC SAGARIN

MASSEY
1 Clemson 7-0 5 4
2 Florida State 5-2 13 10
3 North Carolina 5-2 34 28
4 Louisville 5-1 6 7
5 Pittsburgh 5-2 40 33
6 Virginia Tech 4-2 24 31
7 North Carolina State 4-2 32 34
8 Wake Forest 5-2 57 43
9 Miami 4-2 22 30
10 Georgia Tech 4-3 45 48
11 Syracuse 3-4 74 70
12 Boston College 3-3 79 82
13 Duke 3-4 58 72
14 Virginia 2-4 77 91

Records shown against the Vegas spread (starting next week) utilize the Danny Sheridan opening line.  The spreads below are ones created by the Book.

Week Record:  Won  21 Lost  31 Tied  1 winning percentage .406
Season Record:  Won  172 Lost 177 Tied  8 winning percentage .493


NATIONAL/ACC SPREADS
FAVORITE SPREAD UNDERDOG
at Virginia Tech 3.3 Miami
at Boise State 1.4 Brigham Young
South Florida 9.8 at Temple
Washington State 9.9 at Arizona State
at UCLA 6.7 Utah
at Stanford 4.2 Colorado
at Washington 38.8 Oregon State
at Alabama 17.0 Texas A&M
at Auburn 12.8 Arkansas
at LSU 7.0 Mississippi
at Connecticut 2.0 Central Florida
Houston 26.1 at SMU
Oklahoma 14.4 at Texas Tech
at West Virginia 15.0 TCU
Syracuse 0.2 at Boston College
at Louisville 13.4 North Carolina State
North Carolina 15.3 at Virginia
at Western Michigan 35.3 Eastern Michigan
at Nebraska 27.4 Purdue
Wisconsin 5.8 at Iowa
at Michigan 41.6 Illinois
Ohio State 19.5 at Penn State
at South Carolina 29.7 Massachusetts
at Navy 1.0 Memphis

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