So is going 6-0 on the ‘Lock of the Week’ to start the year like pitching a no hitter going into the 5th inning? Or making it to a second date with a smoke show that you know is way out of your league? Do you just not talk about it and see how long it can go?
I will stop patting myself on the back right now because obviously there is work to be done on my overall record for the year. I will say that my record on BC games is a horrendous 1-5. The good news is that makes me 13-11 in non-BC games so here is to hoping that with no BC game this week I can have a winning week
Last Week: 2-3
Lock of the Week: 6-0
UNC (+8) at Miami
This is a sandwich game situation for Miami. The ‘Canes are coming off of a tough loss against rival Florida State and have a showdown with Virginia Tech looming on Thursday night.
UNC is coming off of a blowout loss to Virginia Tech, but I throw out those results a little bit due to the horrific weather conditions. Miami wins this one but doesn’t cover.
Ole Miss at Arkansas (+8)
This isn’t so much as a play on Arkansas as it is a play against Ole Miss. To start off I think this is a very tough spot for Ole Miss as they come off four straight home games and a bye only to travel to Fayetteville on Saturday night.
When you think of Arkansas you think of a plotting team like BC that likes to try and crack that rock on you in the 4th quarter. While that has certainly been the way in the past, this year’s Arkansas team is throwing the ball quite a bit. The Razorbacks are 3rd in the SEC in passing yards per game with 272, behind only Ole Miss and Mizzou. That being said, Arkansas has shown at times it can still run the ball which will come in handy against the Ole Miss rush defense that is ranked last in the SEC.
West Virginia at Texas Tech (PICKEM)
Everyone knew that when West Virginia joined the Big12 that it would be tough for them to win on the road due to the length of the road trips that had to be made. Since joining the Big 12, West Virginia is 7-9 straight up in road games and if you out games against the doormat duo of Kansas and Iowa State that record dips down to 4-8.
I’m taking Patrick Mahomes here in a game that Texas Tech needs with a stretch of games against Oklahoma, @TCU, Texas and @Oklahoma State coming up.
UCLA at Washington State (-6.5)
It’s tough to find two teams that are headed in more opposite directions so I am trying to ride the momentum wave here.
UCLA comes in licking its wounds literally and figuratively. Quarterback Josh Rosen is questionable heading into this one and even if he plays he won’t be at 100%. The Bruins are coming off of a tough road loss at Arizona State where they lost as 8 point favorites.
Meanwhile, the Cougars have won three in a row and won all three by 18 points or more. They weren’t beating up on total slouches either as two of the wins came against Stanford and Oregon.
UCLA has a good defense, but Washington State is putting up 43 points per game overall.
UCLA is one of the most talented teams in the PAC 12 so I do get nervous laying almost a touchdown against them. Again, I am riding the momentum train here though.
Lock of the Week
Kansas State (+13.5) at Oklahoma
Like many others I love taking Bill Snyder as an underdog. In the last three years Snyder is 10-6 ATS as an underdog and is 1-1 this year, giving him that elusive 61% winning percentage as a dog.
The key to stopping Oklahoma is by making them one dimensional and forcing them to throw. Kansas State has the #1 rush defense in the Big 12 and #3 in the nation overall, so I think Snyder’s defense will be able to slow down Oklahoma’s running game.
In terms of a situational game, this game comes directly after The Red River Rivalry last weekend so that alone will make it tough for the Sooners to get up for this one. When you throw in the fact that this game kicks off at 11am local time it really sets up as a letdown start to the game for Oklahoma.
As a final reason that I’m taking this game it’s this----If you have an undefeated streak on the line you want Bill Snyder as the coach that you ride to keep the streak going.