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The Book 2016: Week 7

Michigan enters our top four. Another rating formula to consider. The extra data point. Eagles slump more entering bye week. Solid week for The Book vs the Vegas spread.

By John Fidler
Coach Khaki has the Wolverines in our top four
Coach Khaki has the Wolverines in our top four
Ed Mulholland-USA TODAY Sports

Week 7 is here, one more week until the literal midway point of the regular season and a Saturday off for our Eagles, but most of the rest of the country is busy and clearly there are some big games that will have major playoff implications for the committee and The Book.

With Texas A&M's 2OT win over Tennessee last week, the Aggies maintained the #1 spot in our committee style (re: worthiness) ranking, actually slightly growing their margin over #2 Alabama.  As you can see this is a very top heavy SEC/Big 10 list, with 3 of the top 7 SEC and another 2 from the Big 10.

You've seen that we have numerous ways to look at rankings. A power ranking where we look at the overall strength of a team, this should be more in line with Jeff Sagarin and the Massey composite polls you see weekly.  The CFP committee style ranking we are highlighting this season, rewarding simply who you beat and who you lose to and now we introduce a combined ranking, taking the best of both the CFP and power rankings designed to reward both worthiness and who we think is the best team.

By those measurements, to no one's surprise, Alabama tops the list, followed by Ohio State, Michigan and Clemson.

My next expansion of this is to include weighted opponents strength of schedule.

Hurricane Matthew played a very interesting role in the season last weekend, by at least postponing and possibly cancelling LSU's game at Florida.  That would give the Tigers and Gators one less data point (11) than all of their other competitors (12) and a big one at that with it being a conference game and that is important to understand now and down the road.

You can see how far down Louisville dropped after losing at Clemson and they do seem to be considerably lower than you would expect in the two polls shown here, but the Cards are actually #6 in the power poll, exactly where Sagarin has them. Why the difference and why the potential issue for LSU and Florida.  Data points.

The UofL has played one less game than most of the teams in front of them and has also beaten (at the time) the poorest FBS team in the country in Charlotte.  They will eventually make up that one game, but as the committee has pointed out, they look at all data points and in aggregate rather than average, so whether it be LSU and Florida missing a data point, a Louisville not making the conference title game or the Big 12 not having a title game, that value will indeed be held against them by the committee as something they need to overcome in one or potentially even two games less.

BC's loss to Clemson dropped them a few notches in our various polls. The Eagles are #83 in the CFP style and power polls, #86 in the combined polls, now ahead of only next week's opponent, Syracuse in the ACC.

The Book had a solid week of 30-24-0 .556 for the week to sit at .512 for the season.

Enjoy the games and Go Eagles!

CFP COMMITTEE STYLE RANKING
RANK TEAM RECORD SAGARIN

BOOK

COMBINED
1 Texas A&M Aggies 6-0 7 5
2 Alabama Crimson Tide 6-0 2 1
3 Clemson Tigers 6-0 4 4
4 Michigan Wolverines 6-0 3 3
5 Ohio State Buckeyes 5-0 1 2
6 Washington Huskies 6-0 5 6
7 Tennessee Volunteers 5-1 15 8
8 Florida State Seminoles 4-2 13 7
9 West Virginia Mountaineers 4-0 29 15
10 Western Michigan Broncos 6-0 28 13
11 Nebraska Cornhuskers 5-0 22 12
12 Wisconsin Badgers 4-1 14 10
13 Arizona State Sun Devils 5-1 44 27
14 Utah Utes 5-1 37 26
15 Boise State Broncos 5-0 23 22
16 Louisville Cardinals 4-1 6 9
17 Virginia Tech Hokies 4-1 12 11
18 North Carolina Tar Heels 4-2 38 19
19 Stanford Cardinal 3-2 18 18
20 Baylor Bears 5-0 21 24
21 Houston Cougars 5-1 16 17
22 Auburn Tigers 4-2 10 16
23 Georgia Bulldogs 4-2 48 30
24 South Florida Bulls 5-1 34 25
25 Oklahoma Sooners 3-2 11 21
26 Miami-Florida Hurricanes 4-1 17 14
27 USC Trojans 3-3 25 23
28 Penn State Nittany Lions 4-2 42 35
29 Navy Midshipmen 4-1 54 41
30 Wake Forest Demon Deacons 5-1 61 43
31 N.C. State Wolfpack 4-1 36 33
32 Ole Miss Rebels 3-2 8 20
33 Pittsburgh Panthers 4-2 41 36
34 Florida Gators 4-1 20 34
35 Oklahoma State Cowboys 4-2 33 37
36 Colorado Buffaloes 4-2 27 32
37 Arkansas Razorbacks 4-2 31 42
38 BYU Cougars 3-3 39 31
39 Memphis Tigers 4-1 35 40
40 Tulsa Golden Hurricane 4-1 72 55
41 Troy Trojans 4-1 62 48
42 Washington State Cougars 3-2 19 29
43 LSU Tigers 3-2 9 28
44 Toledo Rockets 4-1 43 44
45 TCU Horned Frogs 4-2 26 45
46 Maryland Terrapins 4-1 57 51
47 Air Force Falcons 4-1 63 57
48 San Diego State Aztecs 4-1 64 47
49 Kansas State Wildcats 3-2 30 39
50 UCLA Bruins 3-3 24 38
51 Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders 4-1 71 59
52 Indiana Hoosiers 3-2 55 49
53 Iowa Hawkeyes 4-2 32 46
54 Central Michigan Chippewas 4-2 84 65
55 Appalachian St. Mountaineers 3-2 66 60
56 California Golden Bears 3-3 53 50
57 Akron Zips 4-2 88 69
58 Wyoming Cowboys 4-2 91 67
59 South Alabama Jaguars 3-2 100 89
60 Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets 3-3 45 53
61 Kentucky Wildcats 3-3 74 58
62 Hawaii Warriors 3-3 103 83
63 Texas Tech Red Raiders 3-2 40 54
64 Texas Longhorns 2-3 47 52
65 Purdue Boilermakers 3-2 98 72
66 UCF Knights 3-2 65 68
67 Eastern Michigan Eagles 4-2 114 92
68 Ohio University Bobcats 4-2 90 74
69 Northwestern Wildcats 2-3 50 56
70 Minnesota Golden Gophers 3-2 60 64
71 Old Dominion Monarchs 4-2 96 85
72 Oregon State Beavers 2-3 82 73
73 Michigan State Spartans 2-3 56 61
74 Army Black Knights 3-2 68 87
75 Tulane Green Wave 3-2 93 93
76 Duke Blue Devils 3-3 67 70
77 Southern Miss Golden Eagles 4-2 81 82
78 Virginia Cavaliers 2-3 77 63
79 Mississippi St. Bulldogs 2-3 52 66
80 Connecticut Huskies 3-3 89 78
81 Cincinnati Bearcats 3-3 83 88
82 Louisiana Tech Bulldogs 3-3 76 77
83 Boston College Eagles 3-3 75 86
84 Rutgers Scarlet Knights 2-4 106 94
85 Georgia Southern Eagles 3-2 85 91
86 Idaho Vandals 3-3 118 105
87 Missouri Tigers 2-3 51 71
88 Western Kentucky Hilltoppers 3-3 69 81
89 South Carolina Gamecocks 2-4 73 80
90 Notre Dame Fighting Irish 2-4 46 62
91 Vanderbilt Commodores 2-4 70 76
92 North Texas Mean Green 3-3 116 102
93 Texas State Bobcats 2-3 124 112
94 Oregon Ducks 2-4 49 75
95 Colorado State Rams 3-3 95 95
96 Temple Owls 3-3 59 79
97 Arizona Wildcats 2-4 58 84
98 East Carolina Pirates 2-4 79 97
99 Texas-San Antonio Roadrunners 2-3 109 107
100 Nevada Wolf Pack 3-3 108 104
101 Syracuse Orange 2-4 87 96
102 New Mexico State Aggies 2-3 125 115
103 Ball State Cardinals 3-3 94 101
104 New Mexico Lobos 2-3 104 100
105 Louisiana Ragin Cajuns 2-3 111 114
106 Iowa St. Cyclones 1-5 78 90
107 SMU Mustangs 2-4 99 106
108 Illinois Fighting Illini 1-4 86 99
109 Utah State Aggies 3-3 80 98
110 UNLV Rebels 2-4 105 108
111 ULM Warhawks 1-4 122 117
112 Georgia State Panthers 1-4 107 111
113 Arkansas State Red Wolves 1-4 101 113
114 Kent State Golden Flashes 2-4 110 109
115 Kansas Jayhawks 1-4 102 116
116 Northern Illinois Huskies 1-5 92 103
117 Charlotte 49ers 2-4 128 125
118 FIU Panthers 2-4 123 119
119 Marshall Thundering Herd 1-4 97 110
120 Massachusetts Minutemen 1-5 112 123
121 Bowling Green Falcons 1-5 117 118
122 Fresno State Bulldogs 1-5 113 120
123 Rice Owls 0-5 119 124
124 Buffalo Bulls 1-4 126 128
125 Texas-El Paso Miners 1-5 127 127
126 Florida Atlantic Owls 1-5 121 126
127 San Jose State Spartans 1-5 115 122
128 Miami-Ohio Redhawks 0-6 120 121

Here is a week by week look at the CFP style top 4:

TOP 4 - WEEK BY WEEK
AFTER WEEK #1 #2 #3 #4
1 Houston Wisconsin Florida State Texas
2 Alabama Wisconsin Texas Arkansas
3 Alabama Ohio State Texas A&M Houston
4 Texas A&M Alabama Wisconsin Stanford
5 Texas A&M Alabama Clemson Tennessee
6 Texas A&M Alabama Clemson Michigan

THE ACC/CFP RANKINGS
RANK TEAM REC SAGARIN

BOOK

COMBINED
1 Clemson 6-0 4 4
2 Florida State 4-2 13 7
3 Louisville 4-1 6 9
4 Virginia Tech 4-1 12 11
5 North Carolina 4-2 38 19
6 Miami 4-1 17 14
7 Wake Forest 5-1 61 43
8 North Carolina State 4-1 36 33
9 Pittsburgh 4-2 41 36
10 Georgia Tech 3-3 45 53
11 Virginia 2-3 77 63
12 Duke 3-3 67 70
13 Boston College 3-3 75 86
14 Syracuse 2-4 87 96

Records shown against the Vegas spread (starting next week) utilize the Danny Sheridan opening line.  The spreads below are ones created by the Book.

Week Record:  Won  30 Lost  24 Tied  0 winning percentage .556
Season Record:  Won  152 Lost 145 Tied  7 winning percentage .512


NATIONAL/ACC SPREADS
FAVORITE SPREAD UNDERDOG
at Louisville 31.2 Duke
Louisiana Tech 16.3 at UMass
at Baylor 37.2 Kansas
Mississippi 9.9 at Arkansas
at Florida 14.7 Missouri
at LSU 30.8 So Mississippi
Alabama 6.9 at Tennessee
USC 13.6 at Arizona
at Colorado 7.8 Arizona State
at Washington State 8.8 UCLA
at Boise State 30.5 Colorado State
Ohio State 7.6 at Wisconsin
at Houston 25.0 Tulsa
at Oklahoma 12.3 Kansas State
West Virginia 2.9 at Texas Tech
at Clemson 24.7 North Carolina State
at Florida State 25.4 Wake Forest
at Georgia Tech 18.1 Georgia Southern
Pittsburgh 3.4 at Virginia
Virginia Tech 24.8 at Syracuse
Western Michigan 18.2 at Akron
at Miami 8.7 North Carolina
Nebraska 7.1 at Indiana
Stanford 3.2 at Notre Dame

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