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The Book 2015: Week 5

Rebels/Frogs split the top spot, with UCLA closing quickly. Eagles double digit dog at Devils. Who is overrated and who is underrated?

By John Fidler
Mora leads Bruin charge toward the top of the polls
Mora leads Bruin charge toward the top of the polls
Casey Sapio-USA TODAY Sports

The further we go on with this, the more divergent paths we seem to take.  Another week down and although three of the top four teams in each poll are the same, the order is getting more and more different.

The Ole Miss Rebels, who clearly were hungover from their win at Alabama, maintain the top spot in the Book poll, while TCU who needed a miracle to overcome Texas Tech in Lubbock, are #1 with Phil Steele.

The weekend's biggest winner looks to be UCLA, who rose to #2 in the Book and up to #6 with Steele. The composite Massey ratings, like the national polls still keep Ohio State at #1 and the bastardized Steele poll puts them at two.

Boston College on the other hand can't seem to gain any ground. The Eagles once again rose ever so slightly after the win over Northern Illinois last week, now at 72 in the Book, 63 from Phil Steele and 55 with Massey. The Massey poll has had BC noticeable higher than the other two every week this season.

The Eagles are a 7 point dog with Vegas and a solid 16 and 15 point underdog with our two computer polls.  Nonsense you say, well in theory I agree.  I can see BC losing, but just don't see Duke winning the game that big..however, so far this year, in FBS games (there are no spreads for FCS games that we count), both the Book and Steele are 2-0 against the Vegas line, both times taking BC opposition to cover.

So it looks on the surface that BC is underrated by our two polls, sitting significantly lower than we might believe they should, but are they the most underrated and who might be the most overrated?  Clemson, Northwestern, West Virginia, BC, Minnesota and Indiana seem vastly underrated, while USC, Boise State, Virginia Tech, Louisville and Georgia Tech are early challengers as overrated teams.

Enjoy your football weekend and Go Eagles!

THE NATIONAL RANKINGS 1-128
GP PS TEAM REC MASSEY
1 4 Ole Miss Rebels 4-0 2
2 6 UCLA Bruins 4-0 3
3 1 TCU Horned Frogs 4-0 8
4 2 Ohio State Buckeyes 4-0 1
5 7 Notre Dame Fighting Irish 4-0 14
6 5 USC Trojans 3-1 19
7 10 Alabama Crimson Tide 3-1 6
8 12 LSU Tigers 3-0 4
9 3 Baylor Bears 3-0 10
10 8 Georgia Bulldogs 4-0 5
10 13 Utah Utes 4-0 7
12 16 Oklahoma Sooners 3-0 11
13 10 Florida State Seminoles 3-0 12
14 17 Michigan State Spartans 4-0 9
15 9 Stanford Cardinal 3-1 17
16 15 Texas A&M Aggies 4-0 15
17 24 N.C. State Wolfpack 4-0 25
18 14 Boise State Broncos 3-1 29
19 34 Florida Gators 4-0 18
20 20 Mississippi St. Bulldogs 3-1 23
21 23 Wisconsin Badgers 3-1 22
22 19 Clemson Tigers 3-0 13
23 27 Michigan Wolverines 3-1 21
24 35 Memphis Tigers 4-0 31
25 28 Duke Blue Devils 3-1 32
26 32 Iowa Hawkeyes 4-0 28
27 21 Texas Tech Red Raiders 3-1 36
28 22 Oklahoma State Cowboys 4-0 26
29 29 California Golden Bears 4-0 27
30 18 Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets 2-2 39
31 26 West Virginia Mountaineers 3-0 16
32 25 Tennessee Volunteers 2-2 34
33 33 Northwestern Wildcats 4-0 20
34 30 Kansas State Wildcats 3-0 24
35 48 Houston Cougars 3-0 37
36 47 Kentucky Wildcats 3-1 43
37 42 Toledo Rockets 3-0 33
38 45 Penn State Nittany Lions 3-1 47
39 37 Miami-Florida Hurricanes 3-0 30
40 40 Arizona Wildcats 3-1 40
41 31 Oregon Ducks 2-2 42
42 44 North Carolina Tar Heels 3-1 46
43 43 Temple Owls 3-0 41
44 36 Virginia Tech Hokies 2-2 57
45 41 BYU Cougars 2-2 38
46 60 Navy Midshipmen 3-0 35
47 54 Pittsburgh Panthers 2-1 52
48 49 Louisville Cardinals 1-3 64
49 39 Auburn Tigers 2-2 48
50 57 Nebraska Cornhuskers 2-2 50
51 56 Western Kentucky Hilltoppers 3-1 51
52 38 Arkansas Razorbacks 1-3 60
53 69 Georgia Southern Eagles 3-1 62
54 46 Washington Huskies 2-2 53
55 51 Missouri Tigers 3-1 49
56 62 Air Force Falcons 2-1 56
57 49 Illinois Fighting Illini 3-1 58
58 70 Ohio University Bobcats 3-1 65
59 71 Bowling Green Falcons 2-2 73
60 61 South Carolina Gamecocks 2-2 54
61 53 Minnesota Golden Gophers 3-1 44
61 52 Texas Longhorns 1-3 70
63 66 Northern Illinois Huskies 2-2 67
64 65 Vanderbilt Commodores 1-3 78
65 55 Colorado Buffaloes 3-1 72
66 78 Tulsa Golden Hurricane 2-1 76
67 58 Arizona State Sun Devils 2-2 61
68 64 Marshall Thundering Herd 3-1 66
69 72 Cincinnati Bearcats 2-2 71
70 75 Syracuse Orange 3-1 59
71 59 Louisiana Tech Bulldogs 2-2 63
72 63 Boston College Eagles 3-1 55
73 74 Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders 2-2 75
74 87 East Carolina Pirates 2-2 69
75 83 Western Michigan Broncos 1-3 90
76 73 Utah State Aggies 1-2 77
77 80 Iowa St. Cyclones 1-2 80
78 67 Appalachian St. Mountaineers 2-1 68
79 93 Akron Zips 2-2 91
80 84 Colorado State Rams 2-2 82
81 76 Washington State Cougars 2-1 84
82 99 Southern Miss Golden Eagles 2-2 97
83 88 Purdue Boilermakers 1-3 104
84 89 Nevada Wolf Pack 2-2 83
85 79 Rutgers Scarlet Knights 2-2 87
86 68 Indiana Hoosiers 4-0 45
87 81 Virginia Cavaliers 1-3 81
88 90 San Jose State Spartans 2-2 94
89 85 Ball State Cardinals 2-2 85
90 91 Rice Owls 2-2 92
91 92 Central Michigan Chippewas 1-3 93
92 87 Maryland Terrapins 2-2 79
93 82 Oregon State Beavers 2-2 74
94 104 Buffalo Bulls 2-2 89
95 94 Wake Forest Demon Deacons 2-2 86
96 103 Arkansas State Red Wolves 1-3 99
97 107 Louisiana Ragin Cajuns 1-2 100
98 86 Hawaii Warriors 2-2 88
99 96 South Florida Bulls 1-2 103
100 100 Connecticut Huskies 2-2 96
101 106 ULM Warhawks 1-2 98
102 97 San Diego State Aztecs 1-3 106
103 105 Massachusetts Minutemen 0-3 117
104 109 Troy Trojans 1-2 101
105 98 FIU Panthers 2-2 95
106 108 New Mexico Lobos 2-2 111
107 95 SMU Mustangs 1-3 105
108 102 UCF Knights 0-4 108
109 113 Kansas Jayhawks 0-3 119
110 111 UNLV Rebels 1-3 102
111 112 Army Black Knights 1-3 118
112 101 Kent State Golden Flashes 1-3 116
113 118 Texas-El Paso Miners 2-2 115
114 115 Florida Atlantic Owls 1-3 113
115 114 Fresno State Bulldogs 1-3 109
116 116 Texas State Bobcats 1-3 114
117 110 Tulane Green Wave 1-2 112
118 117 Texas-San Antonio Roadrunners 0-4 120
119 119 South Alabama Jaguars 2-2 107
120 122 Georgia State Panthers 1-2 124
121 123 Idaho Vandals 1-3 121
122 120 Old Dominion Monarchs 1-2 110
123 121 North Texas Mean Green 0-3 125
124 124 Miami-Ohio Redhawks 1-3 123
125 128 Charlotte 49ers 2-2 122
126 127 New Mexico State Aggies 0-3 127
127 126 Eastern Michigan Eagles 1-3 126
128 125 Wyoming Cowboys 0-4 128

THE ACC RANKINGS
GP PS TEAM REC MASSEY
1 1 Florida State 3-0
2 4 North Carolina State 4-0
3 3 Clemson 3-0
4 5 Duke 3-1
5 2 Georgia Tech 2-2
6 7 Miami 3-0
7 8 North Carolina 3-1
8 6 Virginia Tech 2-2
9 10 Pittsburgh 2-1
10 9 Louisville 1-3
11 12 Syracuse 3-1
12 11 Boston College 3-1
13 13 Virginia 1-3
14 14 Wake Forest 2-2

Last weeks head to head results:

GamePlan (The Book):  26-25-1 .510 , 0 games identical to Vegas spread.  Season to date: 98-90-4 .521 , 2 games identical
Phil Steele:  26-25-1 .510, 0 games identical to Vegas spread.  Season to date: 95-95-4 .500, 0 games identical

The Vegas spread used is the Danny Sheridan opening line.

NATIONAL/ACC/BC OPPONENT SPREADS
FAVORITE GP/PS SPREADS UNDERDOG
Miami, FL 3.2/6.5 at Cincinnati
Memphis 19.5/16.4 at South Florida
at Wisconsin 6.3/8.6 Iowa
Mississippi 3.0/9.7 at Florida
at Georgia 4.1/4.8 Alabama
at LSU 47.2/57.0 Eastern Michigan
at Texas A&M 7.1/6.3 Mississippi State
at Duke 16.2/14.8 Boston College
at Clemson 1.6/-1.2 Notre Dame
Florida State 21.9/27.2 Wake Forest
at Georgia Tech 8.9/14.2 North Carolina
at North Carolina State 12.3/12.4 Louisville
at Virginia Tech 5.6/9.5 Pittsburgh
at Stanford 13.9/18.5 Arizona
at UCLA 24.6/24.1 Arizona State
at Oklahoma 10.9/8.5 West Virginia
at TCU 23.0/28.0 Texas
Baylor 6.2/11.7 at Texas Tech
Ohio State 21.6/24.8 at Indiana
at Boise State 28.9/31.4 Hawaii
at Michigan State 25.8/29.6 Purdue
Michigan 16.9/16.8 at Maryland
at Tennessee 11.0/9.4 Arkansas
at Oklahoma State 7.6/8.0 Kansas State
Northern Illinois 5.3/5.6 at Central Michigan















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