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The Book 2015: Week 4

Eagles slip slightly, NIU game a virtual toss up. Ole Miss climbs to the top of the rankings. The Book strikes back at Phil Steele.

By John Fidler
Chad Kelly leads the Rebels to #1
Chad Kelly leads the Rebels to #1
Marvin Gentry-USA TODAY Sports

Week three of the college football season offered some of the most interesting and scintillating games of the year.  It also served to pull the top tier of teams back toward the pack as most of the favorites either lost or had games much closer than anticipated.

The biggest winner of the weekend unquestionably were the Ole Miss Rebels, who for the first time in their history, beat Alabama in consecutive seasons.  Yeah, I know it took Bama to turn the ball over five times, Ole Miss to score on two near miracle plays and Bama to be driving for a winning score when they suffered the final turnover, but don't let the details get in the way of a great story!

That puts last year's surprise team in our Book poll back where they spent a good portion of last year, #1 in the country.

BC's 14-0 loss to Florida State didn't do much to help or hurt the Eagles. They fell slightly in both polls and now with 63 polls making up the Massey Composite, BC at #62 sits very close to where our two polls find them (73 and 65).  That loss actually dropped the Eagles about 10 spots in the Massey polls, so either they weren't swayed by the defensive performance, were appalled by the offensive one, or are worried about the dilemma at QB.

For those unfamiliar with the Massey composite, it is a list of recognized computer polls aggregated and averaged together.  Some of these are ones you are familiar with, like Jeff Sagarin or the USA Today poll, others obviously not so much.  To say that math geniuses can come up with results so drastically different from one another mean these polls are as much subjective as objective. Take BC for instance, where this week, the Eagles rank #10 in something called the Denzenzio TSRS and yet #117 in the Pointshare poll..so our two don't seem nearly as crazy as one might imagine.

The Eagles are a small underdog per the Book and a small favorite per Phil Steele vs NIU. Both polls were almost dead on picking the FSU game, easily winning against the spread.

If you've noticed, the Steele spreads have been much greater in general and still are this week and that didn't bode well.  Last week's results have now flipped the leader board with The Book now holding a four game lead.

Enjoy your football weekend and Go Eagles!

THE NATIONAL RANKINGS 1-128
GP PS TEAM REC MASSEY
1 1 Ole Miss Rebels 3-0 2
2 4 Georgia Bulldogs 3-0 3
3 5 Notre Dame Fighting Irish 3-0 8
4 2 Ohio State Buckeyes 3-0 1
5 3 TCU Horned Frogs 3-0 5
6 7 LSU Tigers 2-0 6
7 6 Alabama Crimson Tide 2-1 4
8 13 Michigan State Spartans 3-0 7
9 15 Oklahoma Sooners 3-0 12
10 10 Florida State Seminoles 3-0 11
11 9 Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets 2-1 16
12 11 Stanford Cardinal 2-1 15
13 14 UCLA Bruins 3-0 10
14 18 Texas A&M Aggies 3-0 13
15 12 USC Trojans 2-1 18
16 8 Baylor Bears 2-0 9
17 17 Clemson Tigers 3-0 14
18 35 Memphis Tigers 3-0 32
19 22 Texas Tech Red Raiders 3-0 36
20 36 Florida Gators 3-0 26
21 24 Wisconsin Badgers 2-1 20
22 21 Northwestern Wildcats 3-0 22
23 16 Oregon Ducks 2-1 17
24 28 Arizona Wildcats 3-0 24
25 25 Utah Utes 3-0 19
26 20 Virginia Tech Hokies 2-1 35
27 19 Tennessee Volunteers 2-1 29
28 27 BYU Cougars 2-1 25
29 26 Oklahoma State Cowboys 3-0 28
30 29 Mississippi St. Bulldogs 2-1 27
31 33 N.C. State Wolfpack 3-0 33
32 32 California Golden Bears 3-0 38
33 40 North Carolina Tar Heels 2-1 50
34 31 Kansas State Wildcats 3-0 23
35 23 Boise State Broncos 2-1 31
36 38 Iowa Hawkeyes 3-0 39
37 30 Auburn Tigers 2-1 37
38 45 Penn State Nittany Lions 2-1 47
39 37 Miami-Florida Hurricanes 3-0 34
40 55 Kentucky Wildcats 2-1 53
41 44 Michigan Wolverines 2-1 40
42 47 Temple Owls 3-0 42
43 39 West Virginia Mountaineers 2-0 21
44 46 Duke Blue Devils 2-1 48
45 53 Pittsburgh Panthers 2-1 55
46 59 Navy Midshipmen 2-0 49
47 50 Nebraska Cornhuskers 1-2 43
48 42 Washington Huskies 2-1 44
49 41 Arizona State Sun Devils 2-1 41
50 34 Arkansas Razorbacks 1-2 46
51 51 Toledo Rockets 2-0 45
52 60 Houston Cougars 2-0 52
53 43 Missouri Tigers 3-0 30
54 67 Ohio University Bobcats 3-0 65
55 61 Air Force Falcons 2-1 58
56 63 Northern Illinois Huskies 2-1 56
57 48 Illinois Fighting Illini 2-1 70
58 57 Louisville Cardinals 0-3 63
59 49 Texas Longhorns 1-2 60
60 73 Georgia Southern Eagles 2-1 68
61 58 South Carolina Gamecocks 1-2 54
62 75 Bowling Green Falcons 1-2 73
63 54 Colorado Buffaloes 2-1 72
64 66 Marshall Thundering Herd 2-1 59
65 52 Minnesota Golden Gophers 2-1 51
66 77 Tulsa Golden Hurricane 2-1 81
67 56 Louisiana Tech Bulldogs 1-2 64
68 62 Western Kentucky Hilltoppers 2-1 57
69 70 Cincinnati Bearcats 2-1 67
70 78 Syracuse Orange 3-0 66
71 64 Virginia Cavaliers 1-2 71
72 71 Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders 2-1 69
73 65 Boston College Eagles 2-1 62
74 81 Rice Owls 2-1 79
75 87 Western Michigan Broncos 1-2 92
76 76 Vanderbilt Commodores 1-2 84
77 72 Maryland Terrapins 2-1 75
78 69 Utah State Aggies 1-2 74
79 85 Colorado State Rams 1-2 78
80 80 Iowa St. Cyclones 1-2 87
81 84 Purdue Boilermakers 1-2 98
82 90 Louisiana Ragin Cajuns 1-1 77
83 74 Washington State Cougars 2-1 85
84 102 Southern Miss Golden Eagles 2-1 97
85 92 Arkansas State Red Wolves 1-2 88
86 89 Wake Forest Demon Deacons 2-1 93
87 79 Rutgers Scarlet Knights 1-2 89
88 94 Buffalo Bulls 2-1 83
89 91 East Carolina Pirates 1-2 80
90 98 Nevada Wolf Pack 1-2 94
91 82 Oregon State Beavers 2-1 76
92 83 Appalachian St. Mountaineers 1-1 82
93 68 Indiana Hoosiers 3-0 61
94 103 Central Michigan Chippewas 1-2 91
95 99 Ball State Cardinals 2-1 90
96 106 Akron Zips 1-2 109
97 86 Hawaii Warriors 2-1 86
98 96 Connecticut Huskies 2-1 99
99 107 ULM Warhawks 1-1 100
100 88 SMU Mustangs 1-2 105
101 93 South Florida Bulls 1-2 106
102 104 Massachusetts Minutemen 0-2 116
103 105 San Jose State Spartans 1-2 110
104 108 Fresno State Bulldogs 1-2 96
105 95 San Diego State Aztecs 1-2 102
106 101 UCF Knights 0-3 101
107 111 Troy Trojans 1-2 108
108 119 FIU Panthers 2-1 95
109 109 Texas State Bobcats 1-2 107
110 113 Kansas Jayhawks 0-2 111
111 110 New Mexico Lobos 1-2 113
112 116 Texas-El Paso Miners 1-2 114
113 115 South Alabama Jaguars 2-1 104
114 97 Kent State Golden Flashes 1-2 115
115 114 Old Dominion Monarchs 2-1 103
116 117 UNLV Rebels 0-3 118
117 121 Miami-Ohio Redhawks 1-2 121
118 126 Eastern Michigan Eagles 1-2 125
119 119 Florida Atlantic Owls 0-3 119
120 118 North Texas Mean Green 0-2 122
121 120 Texas-San Antonio Roadrunners 0-3 117
122 112 Tulane Green Wave 1-2 112
123 123 Idaho Vandals 1-2 124
124 122 Army Black Knights 0-3 123
125 127 Charlotte 49ers 2-1 120
126 124 Georgia State Panthers 1-2 126
127 128 New Mexico State Aggies 0-3 128
128 125 Wyoming Cowboys 0-3 127

THE ACC RANKINGS
GP PS TEAM REC MASSEY
1 2 Florida State 3-0 11
2 1 Georgia Tech 2-1 16
3 3 Clemson 3-0 14
4 4 Virginia Tech 2-1 35
5 5 NC State 3-0 33
6 7 North Carolina 2-1 50
7 6 Miami 3-0 34
8 8 Duke 2-1 48
9 9 Pittsburgh 2-1 55
10 10 Louisville 0-3 63
11 13 Syracuse 3-0 66
12 11 Virginia 1-2 71
13 12 Boston College 2-1 62
14 14 Wake Forest 2-1 93

Last weeks head to head results:

GamePlan (The Book):  29-21-2 .577 , 0 games identical to Vegas spread.  Season to date: 72-65-3 .525  , 2 games identical
Phil Steele:  20-30-2 .404, 0 games identical to Vegas spread.  Season to date: 69-70-3  .496, 0 games identical

The Vegas spread used is the Danny Sheridan opening line.

NATIONAL/ACC/BC OPPONENT SPREADS
FAVORITE GP/PS SPREADS UNDERDOG
at Memphis 16.0/14.7 Cincinnati
Boise St 6.6/10.2 at Virginia
Stanford 18.9/21.3 at Oregon St
at Arizona 1.5/-0.8 UCLA
USC 4.3/6.0 at Arizona St
at Oregon 6.1/8.0 Utah
TCU 2.1/10.0 at Texas Tech
at Michigan St 30.3/35.6 Central Michigan
Northern Illinois 0.6/-3.6 at Boston College
Georgia Tech 7.0/11.1 at Duke
NC State 21.3/25.0 at South Alabama
Virginia Tech 12.7/19.5 at East Carolina
at Wake Forest 6.2/-3.2 Indiana
at Alabama 33.1/41.6 Louisiana-Monroe
Texas A&M 10.3/6.2 at Arkansas
at Florida 5.6/-1.2 Tennessee
at Mississippi 31.3/35.8 Vanderbilt
LSU 15.5/22.1 at Syracuse
at Ohio St 26.6/40.6 Western Michigan
at Notre Dame 33.9/38.7 UMass
at Northwestern 24.0/28.4 Ball St
at Wisconsin 26.6/25.6 Hawaii
at Louisville 20.9/TBD Samford
at North Carolina 41.1/TBD Delaware
at Georgia 59.8/TBD Southern















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