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The Book: Week 1

Who needs the CFP committee, when we've got Book on Book violence this year as Phil Steele faces off against Joe Del Popolo.

Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports

Welcome back for the 2015 season and The Book weekly polls and spreads.  This year, to add a little spice to recipe, I have automated the process for creating the rankings and spreads, which will make it an easy chore to have a battle of pre-season magazines, in this case the Phil Steele College Football Preview taking on "The Book", the GamePlan Magazine College Football Annual.

Now I've bastardized both of these a bit over the years to add what I have found to be a bit more realism, but essentially it's magazine on magazine crime as we look to determine who is the King (or at least one of them) of the pre-season prognosticators!

Each magazine utilizes a power ranking system and then I've taken some liberties with how those ratings are updated on a weekly basis adding in maximum adjustments for change based on point margins along with a second adjustment for strength of schedule.  The result is that it produces a weekly ranking of all 128 teams along with point spreads for all FBS vs FBS games.  To make sure we aren't overlooking the FBS vs FCS games, we utilize the Jeff Sagarin ratings for the GamePlan magazine and Phil Steele actually does put out weekly FCS ratings to capture those results.

The changes I made to the GamePlan formula several years ago had worked like a charm, with The Book posting seven consecutive winning seasons until slumping last year to finish 2014 at a .493 winning percentage.

We even start with a bit of controversy as Ohio State is not only #1 unanimously with the AP poll, but also in Phil Steele's eye, while TCU is the pick by GamePlan.  Interesting to note that OSU has been pre season #1 eight times previously in program history, but in the other seven seasons has never won a national championship.

BC enters 2015 at #66 in Phil Steele's magazine and #76 in the GamePlan magazine.  The Massey composite rankings which I use to sanity check relative accuracy to more established computer polls opens with the Eagles at #57.  The Massey poll combines close to 100 ratings and in many cases those weekly polls aren't released until after this article is posted, so each week I will let you know how many ratings this took into account.  For week 1, it is 42 through 8 PM EDT on Tuesday, September 1.

So here we go, week 1's rankings and spreads.  Both GamePlan (GP) (the Book) and Steele (PS) are listed for both ratings and spreads.  One of the most noticeable differences is how close the GamePlan spreads are for week 1 in comparison to Phil Steele. The Steele metrics, like the Jeff Sagarin metrics, tend to start teams further apart in the power ratings, while GamePlan's variance is much smaller, therefore smaller initial spreads.

The spread for BC - Maine, an FBS vs FCS game shows the Eagles a 26.9 point favorite with GamePlan and 19.9 favorite with Phil Steele and that's another thing to note this year, spreads will be down to the 1/10th of a point.

THE NATIONAL RANKINGS 1-128
GP PS TEAM REC MASSEY
1 2 TCU Horned Frogs 0-0 4
2 1 Ohio State Buckeyes 0-0 1
3 4 Alabama Crimson Tide 0-0 3
4 3 Baylor Bears 0-0 6
5 7 Georgia Bulldogs 0-0 5
6 11 Michigan State Spartans 0-0 7
7 6 Florida State Seminoles 0-0 8
8 13 Auburn Tigers 0-0 12
9 5 Oregon Ducks 0-0 2
10 8 USC Trojans 0-0 11
11 14 Ole Miss Rebels 0-0 9
12 22 Notre Dame Fighting Irish 0-0 26
13 9 Stanford Cardinal 0-0 16
14 12 LSU Tigers 0-0 14
15 14 Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets 0-0 13
16 20 Wisconsin Badgers 0-0 18
17 24 Oklahoma Sooners 0-0 23
18 21 Arizona State Sun Devils 0-0 17
19 33 Penn State Nittany Lions 0-0 41
20 16 UCLA Bruins 0-0 10
21 10 Arkansas Razorbacks 0-0 20
22 17 Tennessee Volunteers 0-0 30
23 18 Boise State Broncos 0-0 22
24 28 Virginia Tech Hokies 0-0 34
25 23 Clemson Tigers 0-0 15
26 19 Missouri Tigers 0-0 19
27 25 Oklahoma State Cowboys 0-0 38
28 26 Texas A&M Aggies 0-0 24
29 27 Utah Utes 0-0 28
30 39 Florida Gators 0-0 32
31 37 Louisville Cardinals 0-0 31
32 29 Mississippi St. Bulldogs 0-0 21
33 30 Kansas State Wildcats 0-0 27
34 31 Arizona Wildcats 0-0 25
35 43 South Carolina Gamecocks 0-0 36
36 34 Nebraska Cornhuskers 0-0 29
37 32 Texas Longhorns 0-0 39
38 35 Michigan Wolverines 0-0 50
39 37 N.C. State Wolfpack 0-0 47
40 45 Pittsburgh Panthers 0-0 51
41 41 BYU Cougars 0-0 42
42 61 Memphis Tigers 0-0 49
43 57 Kentucky Wildcats 0-0 70
44 52 North Carolina Tar Heels 0-0 55
45 53 Cincinnati Bearcats 0-0 43
46 40 West Virginia Mountaineers 0-0 35
47 48 Iowa Hawkeyes 0-0 52
48 36 Minnesota Golden Gophers 0-0 37
49 50 Duke Blue Devils 0-0 45
50 75 Western Michigan Broncos 0-0 77
51 55 Marshall Thundering Herd 0-0 33
52 44 Miami-Florida Hurricanes 0-0 44
53 69 Northern Illinois Huskies 0-0 53
54 45 California Golden Bears 0-0 59
55 60 Utah State Aggies 0-0 46
56 47 Northwestern Wildcats 0-0 67
57 49 Texas Tech Red Raiders 0-0 68
58 65 Western Kentucky Hilltoppers 0-0 58
59 54 Virginia Cavaliers 0-0 66
60 58 Temple Owls 0-0 74
61 78 Navy Midshipmen 0-0 62
62 51 Washington Huskies 0-0 40
63 83 Bowling Green Falcons 0-0 84
64 64 UCF Knights 0-0 53
65 74 Houston Cougars 0-0 65
66 63 San Diego State Aztecs 0-0 72
67 55 Rutgers Scarlet Knights 0-0 60
68 62 Louisiana Tech Bulldogs 0-0 48
69 76 Purdue Boilermakers 0-0 90
70 79 Air Force Falcons 0-0 71
71 72 Indiana Hoosiers 0-0 83
72 71 Vanderbilt Commodores 0-0 87
73 59 Illinois Fighting Illini 0-0 76
74 84 Georgia Southern Eagles 0-0 69
75 70 Maryland Terrapins 0-0 64
76 66 Boston College Eagles 0-0 57
77 97 Nevada Wolf Pack 0-0 82
78 67 Washington State Cougars 0-0 78
79 73 East Carolina Pirates 0-0 63
80 88 Colorado State Rams 0-0 56
81 41 Colorado Buffaloes 0-0 85
82 89 Rice Owls 0-0 75
83 67 Toledo Rockets 0-0 61
84 87 Syracuse Orange 0-0 89
85 92 Arkansas State Red Wolves 0-0 80
86 85 Ohio University Bobcats 0-0 95
87 90 Louisiana Ragin Cajuns 0-0 79
88 80 Iowa St. Cyclones 0-0 92
89 98 Fresno State Bulldogs 0-0 88
90 101 Akron Zips 0-0 110
91 82 Wake Forest Demon Deacons 0-0 96
92 112 Southern Miss Golden Eagles 0-0 116
93 110 Texas-El Paso Miners 0-0 97
94 86 Ball State Cardinals 0-0 91
95 77 Oregon State Beavers 0-0 73
96 93 Tulsa Golden Hurricane 0-0 113
97 93 Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders 0-0 86
98 102 Kansas Jayhawks 0-0 100
99 81 Appalachian St. Mountaineers 0-0 81
100 108 Central Michigan Chippewas 0-0 94
101 106 Texas State Bobcats 0-0 93
102 96 Massachusetts Minutemen 0-0 114
103 105 San Jose State Spartans 0-0 99
104 100 New Mexico Lobos 0-0 103
105 111 Florida Atlantic Owls 0-0 111
106 114 ULM Warhawks 0-0 105
107 91 South Florida Bulls 0-0 109
108 99 FIU Panthers 0-0 107
109 117 Buffalo Bulls 0-0 102
110 115 North Texas Mean Green 0-0 112
111 104 Hawaii Warriors 0-0 106
112 109 Wyoming Cowboys 0-0 108
113 121 Troy Trojans 0-0 119
114 120 South Alabama Jaguars 0-0 104
115 119 Texas-San Antonio Roadrunners 0-0 115
116 116 Connecticut Huskies 0-0 120
117 103 Tulane Green Wave 0-0 101
118 113 Old Dominion Monarchs 0-0 98
119 122 Miami-Ohio Redhawks 0-0 124
120 118 Army Black Knights 0-0 118
121 95 Kent State Golden Flashes 0-0 117
122 126 New Mexico State Aggies 0-0 125
123 107 SMU Mustangs 0-0 122
124 123 UNLV Rebels 0-0 123
125 124 Idaho Vandals 0-0 126
126 128 Charlotte 49ers 0-0 121
127 125 Georgia State Panthers 0-0 127
128 127 Eastern Michigan Eagles 0-0 128

THE ACC RANKINGS
GP PS TEAM REC MASSEY
1 1 Florida State Seminoles 0-0 8
2 2 Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets 0-0 13
3 4 Virginia Tech Hokies 0-0 34
4 3 Clemson Tigers 0-0 15
5 5 Louisville Cardinals 0-0 31
6 6 N.C. State Wolfpack 0-0 47
7 8 Pittsburgh Panthers 0-0 51
8 10 North Carolina Tar Heels 0-0 55
9 9 Duke Blue Devils 0-0 45
10 7 Miami-Florida Hurricanes 0-0 44
11 11 Virginia Cavaliers 0-0 66
12 12 Boston College Eagles 0-0 57
13 14 Syracuse Orange 0-0 89
14 13 Wake Forest Demon Deacons 0-0 96

Note that most of BC's opponents play FCS teams in Week 1, therefore no official spreads.  The first spread represents the Book (GamePlan/GP) and the second, Phil Steele (PS).

THE WEEKLY NATIONAL, ACC AND BC OPPONENT SPREADS
FAVORITE SPREAD (GP/PS) UNDERDOG
South Carolina 1/1.2 North Carolina
Duke 14.3/13.4 at Tulane
at UCLA 12.5/17.2 Virginia
at NC State 22.0/30.4 Troy
at Notre Dame 10.8/7.7 Texas
at No. Illinois 23.8/26.8 UNLV
at Florida St 26.0/38.3 Texas St
Ohio St 2.3/13.0 Virginia Tech
TCU 9.3/18.2 at Minnesota
Michigan St 8.8/17.4 at W. Michigan
Baylor 27.8/34.2 at SMU
at Boise St 12.5/16.2 Washington
at Georgia 29.3/40.4 Louisiana-Monroe
Stanford 5.5/11.2 at Northwestern
at Arkansas 18.5/36.1 UTEP
Auburn 7/9.5 Louisville
at Tennessee 10/22.7 Bowling Green
at Oklahoma 20.3/29.3 Akron
Arizona St 1/0.3 Texas A&M
Alabama 5/7.5 Wisconsin
at USC 19.8/33.9 Arkansas St
at Wake Forest 26.3/29.8 Elon
at Georgia Tech 46.7/39.5 Alcorn St
at Syracuse 36.6/31.1 Rhode Island
at Mississippi 38.6/29.2 Tennessee-Martin
at Clemson 36.3/33 Wofford
at Pittsburgh 17.5/13.9 Youngstown St
at Boston College 26.9/19.9 Maine
at Appalachian St 32.2/35.5 Howard
at Miami FL 37.8/34 Bethune-Cookman
at LSU 43.6/39.1 McNeese St
at Oregon 38/34.5 E. Washington