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The Book 2015: Week 14

Championship weekend game predictions. Sooners move to #1. Should Ohio State be in the playoff?

Brett Deering/Getty Images

We come to week last of the regular season, the conference championship games and a few other flotsam and jetsam games from the far reaches of the Big 12 and the Sun Belt.  By next Sunday night, we will know the four teams that will make up the College Football Playoff.

The Book and Phil Steele of course, don't totally agree with the CFP rankings at this point.  Oklahoma and Alabama are in the committee's current top four, but our polls still have North Carolina, Ohio State and even TCU as our "who's in" group with Clemson, Michigan State, Iowa and Stanford all on the outside looking in.

Our poll looks at the season in its entirety, albeit entering with a pre-conceived bias.  The CFP, although it says it looks at the body of work, obviously values games played later in the season more so than those early in the season, therefore it is highly unlikely that a team with a late season loss would have the juice to overcome that outcome.

The CFP selection committee protocol states the following:

Establish a committee that will be instructed to place an emphasis on winning conference championships, strength of schedule and head-to-head competition when comparing teams with similar records and pedigree (treat final determination like a tie-breaker; apply specific guidelines).

The criteria to be provided to the selection committee must be aligned with the ideals of the commissioners, presidents, athletic directors and coaches to honor regular season success while at the same time providing enough flexibility and discretion to select a non-champion or independent under circumstances where that particular non-champion or independent is unequivocally one of the four best teams in the country.

I am not an Ohio State fan, but I will say that when all is said and done, and based on 11-1 and the thrashing they put on Michigan on Saturday, the Buckeyes, although it is highly unlikely they will get in regardless of what ensues, could well be viewed as unequivocally one of the four best teams in the country.  Ohio State's issue this year is when they lost, and that they won't be a conference champion.  When this started there was a lot of discussion around the four best teams, what is becoming more and more clear, outside of a year where Notre Dame goes 11-1 or 12-0, is that they are selecting the four best conference champs.

Both the Book and Phil Steele had solid weeks, 10 games and 8 games over .500 respectively.  With this week and the bowls still to play, Steele holds a 7 1/2 game lead in the race for season honors, with both closing in on guaranteed winning seasons.

This week, with so few games across the country, the spreads for every game are listed below, including next week's Army-Navy game.

BC's final loss at Syracuse, as many of them have done this year, didn't cost the Eagles too much.  The spread was close to begin with so the Eagles remained essentially in the same spot and will finish 12/12th in the ACC and at this point 83/76 in the nation.  The Massey poll has the Eagles all the way down at 90.

Last season BC finished 50th in the Book poll following their 7-6 season.  The last time BC finished lower than 83rd, was 2012 when they finished 84th.

Next edition of the The Book will be two weeks from now, December 16, when the bowl games are released.

Enjoy your football weekend and Go Eagles!

THE NATIONAL RANKINGS 1-128
GP PS TEAM REC MASSEY/CFP
1 1 Oklahoma Sooners 11-1 2/3
2 2 Alabama Crimson Tide 11-1 1/2
3 4 North Carolina Tar Heels 11-1 12/10
4 6 Ohio State Buckeyes 11-1 4/6
5 5 Baylor Bears 9-2 9/12
6 3 TCU Horned Frogs 10-2 10/11
7 9 Florida State Seminoles 10-2 11/9
8 10 Michigan State Spartans 11-1 5/5
9 7 Ole Miss Rebels 9-3 13/13
10 8 Stanford Cardinal 10-2 6/7
11 14 Clemson Tigers 12-0 3/1
12 15 Notre Dame Fighting Irish 10-2 8/8
13 12 Oregon Ducks 9-3 19/16
14 13 Arkansas Razorbacks 7-5 28
15 11 USC Trojans 8-4 21/20
16 25 Houston Cougars 11-1 16/19
17 16 Washington Huskies 6-6 42
18 19 Iowa Hawkeyes 12-0 7/4
19 17 West Virginia Mountaineers 7-4 30
20 22 Mississippi St. Bulldogs 8-4 26
21 34 Bowling Green Falcons 9-3 34
22 18 Oklahoma State Cowboys 10-2 14/17
23 20 Tennessee Volunteers 8-4 23/25
24 24 Georgia Bulldogs 9-3 31
25 23 LSU Tigers 8-3 18/21
26 28 Florida Gators 10-2 17/18
27 21 UCLA Bruins 8-4 33
28 29 Northwestern Wildcats 10-2 22/14
29 26 Michigan Wolverines 9-3 15/15
30 41 Western Kentucky Hilltoppers 10-2 35
31 31 Wisconsin Badgers 9-3 25
32 32 Virginia Tech Hokies 6-6 54
33 30 Temple Owls 10-2 27/22
34 45 Navy Midshipmen 9-2 20/23
35 39 Memphis Tigers 9-3 29
36 42 BYU Cougars 9-3 38
37 27 Washington State Cougars 8-4 43
38 43 South Florida Bulls 8-4 41
39 35 Miami-Florida Hurricanes 8-4 39
40 46 San Diego State Aztecs 9-3 51
41 40 Pittsburgh Panthers 8-4 37
42 36 Arizona State Sun Devils 6-6 49
42 38 Texas A&M Aggies 8-4 36
44 53 Western Michigan Broncos 7-5 53
45 44 Louisville Cardinals 7-5 45
46 57 Southern Miss Golden Eagles 9-3 58
47 37 California Golden Bears 7-5 40
48 33 Utah Utes 9-3 24/24
49 50 Toledo Rockets 9-2 32
50 49 Auburn Tigers 6-6 50
51 59 Georgia Southern Eagles 8-3 48
52 48 N.C. State Wolfpack 7-5 52
53 47 Texas Tech Red Raiders 7-5 44
54 54 Nebraska Cornhuskers 5-7 55
55 51 Arizona Wildcats 6-6 67
56 52 Boise State Broncos 8-4 57
57 63 Cincinnati Bearcats 7-5 56
58 58 Indiana Hoosiers 6-6 61
59 75 Arkansas State Red Wolves 8-3 60
60 70 Northern Illinois Huskies 8-4 59
61 55 Kansas State Wildcats 5-6 66
62 56 Minnesota Golden Gophers 5-7 64
63 68 Duke Blue Devils 7-5 63
64 62 Penn State Nittany Lions 7-5 46
65 61 Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets 3-9 74
66 67 Virginia Cavaliers 4-8 78
67 72 Appalachian St. Mountaineers 9-2 47
68 65 Iowa State Cyclones 3-9 80
69 60 Texas Longhorns 4-7 68
70 64 Missouri Tigers 5-7 73
71 73 Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders 7-5 77
72 78 Marshall Thundering Herd 9-3 62
73 71 South Carolina Gamecocks 3-9 82
74 74 Air Force Falcons 8-4 65
75 77 Louisiana Tech Bulldogs 8-4 70
76 69 Illinois Fighting Illini 5-7 71
77 83 Ohio University Bobcats 8-4 72
78 66 Colorado Buffaloes 4-9 92
79 79 Connecticut Huskies 6-6 79
80 89 New Mexico Lobos 7-5 89
81 81 Vanderbilt Commodores 4-8 84
82 80 Kentucky Wildcats 5-7 87
83 76 Boston College Eagles 3-9 90
84 85 East Carolina Pirates 5-7 76
85 92 Akron Zips 7-5 81
86 86 Central Michigan Chippewas 7-5 69
87 90 Utah State Aggies 6-6 75
88 82 Wake Forest Demon Deacons 3-9 94
89 87 Colorado State Rams 7-5 86
90 84 Syracuse Orange 4-8 88
91 91 Tulsa Golden Hurricane 6-6 85
92 88 Maryland Terrapins 3-9 83
93 93 Purdue Boilermakers 2-10 97
94 94 Nevada Wolf Pack 6-6 93
95 96 San Jose State Spartans 5-7 95
96 99 Florida Atlantic Owls 3-9 106
97 98 Georgia State Panthers 5-6 98
98 95 Rutgers Scarlet Knights 4-8 91
99 100 Troy Trojans 3-8 102
100 103 Massachusetts Minutemen 3-9 110
101 97 Oregon State Beavers 1-10 100
102 104 Buffalo Bulls 5-7 96
103 106 Ball State Cardinals 3-9 105
104 108 Louisiana Ragin Cajuns 4-7 103
105 102 Wyoming Cowboys 2-10 121
106 101 SMU Mustangs 2-10 104
107 112 Miami-Ohio Redhawks 3-9 117
108 113 Texas-El Paso Miners 5-7 111
109 115 New Mexico State Aggies 3-8 116
110 110 Army Black Knights 2-9 120
111 105 UNLV Rebels 3-9 113
112 107 FIU Panthers 5-7 101
113 111 Fresno State Bulldogs 3-9 112
114 109 Tulane Green Wave 3-9 115
115 118 South Alabama Jaguars 5-6 99
116 114 Idaho Vandals 4-8 109
117 116 Kent State Golden Flashes 3-9 114
118 119 Old Dominion Monarchs 5-7 108
119 120 Rice Owls 5-7 107
120 121 Texas-San Antonio Roadrunners 3-9 119
121 122 North Texas Mean Green 1-11 124
122 117 Kansas Jayhawks 0-12 122
123 124 Texas State Bobcats 3-8 118
124 125 Eastern Michigan Eagles 1-11 126
125 123 UCF Knights 0-12 125
126 126 Hawaii Warriors 3-10 123
127 127 ULM Warhawks 1-11 127
128 128 Charlotte 49ers 2-10 128

THE ACC RANKINGS
GP PS TEAM REC MASSEY
1 1 North Carolina 11-1 12
2 2 Florida State 10-2 11
3 3 Clemson 12-0 3
4 4 Virginia Tech 6-6 54
5 5 Miami 8-4 39
6 6 Pittsburgh 8-4 37
7 7 Louisville 7-5 45
8 8 NC State 7-5 52
9 11 Duke 7-5 63
10 9 Georgia Tech 3-9 74
11 10 Virginia 4-8 78
12 12 Boston College 3-9 90
13 13 Wake Forest 3-9 94
14 14 Syracuse 4-8 88

Last weeks head to head results:

Game Plan (The Book): 34-24-2 .583 , 2 games identical to Vegas spread.   Season to date: 351-336-14 .511, 7 games identical
Phil Steele:  34-26-2 .565, 0 games identical to Vegas spread.  Season to date: 360-332-14 .520, 2 game identical

The Vegas spread used is the Danny Sheridan opening line.

NATIONAL/ACC/BC OPPONENT SPREADS
FAVORITE GP/PS SPREADS UNDERDOG
Appalachian St. 22.1/23.9 at South Alabama
West Virginia 8.6/7.2 at Kansas St.
at Arkansas St. 36.3/36.0 Texas St
at Baylor 30.9/31.5 Texas
at Louisiana E/-1.4 Troy
at Georgia Southern 24.8/24.9 Georgia St.
New Mexico St. 10.0/9.9 Louisiana-Monroe
Bowling Green 13.0/12.2 Northern Illinois
North Carolina 8.3/8.0 Clemson
Stanford 4.6/2.7 USC
at Houston 9.5/6.7 Temple
at Western Kentucky 7.0/9.0 Southern Miss
Alabama 21.2/23.4 Florida
San Diego St. 7.8/7.2 at Air Force
Michigan St. 7.9/7.2 Iowa
Navy 38.8/39.0 Army