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The Book 2015: The Bowls

We look at the spreads for the bowl season, strength of record rankings for all 128 teams and who will win the pre-season publication challenge?

Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports

Welcome to Bowl Season, or as ESPN (the owner of virtually every bowl) would say, "the most wonderful time of the year".  As a kid, I loved bowl season.  Even though there were not nearly the sheer volume of games we have today, it was still a thrill to see teams you didn't get to see all the time on TV and in warm weather destinations and with exotic names, like the Astro Bluebonnet Bowl.

I started attending BC games in 1970.  In that year, only 11 bowl games existed.  Cotton, Orange, Rose, Sugar, Gator, Bluebonnet, Peach, Tangerine, Pasadena, Sun and Liberty.  It took until 1976 for the game list to grow to 12. By the time I graduated in 1985, the number was up to 18.  It took until 1997 to reach 20 games, til 2006 to go over 30 and now we have 37...with not enough eligible teams to go around!

Think about that, members of our top 25 (although in those days they only would rank the top 20), didn't go to bowl games.  Now we have teams ranked as low as #92 in our strength of record poll, San Jose St., getting bowl SWAG.

Brings us to the aforementioned Strength of Record rankings.  Last week, I gave you a brief look at the top 25 using strength of record as opposed to straight Book or Phil Steele rankings. This metric takes out margin of victory and focuses pretty exclusively on who you beat and who you lose to. The results, in many cases, are far different from what either magazine provides us and in most cases, are far more in line with the human polls and the college football playoff.

My thought next year is that I may use the Strength of Record to rank and the Book and/or Steele for point spreads..we will see how it goes.

You can work your way down the poll and see the variance between the metrics. Iowa for instance is ranked #7 in strength of record, but #19/22 in the magazine polls as they have struggled with margin of victory.  Washington on the other hand is #48 in strength of record, but #16/17 in the two pre-season mags.  Why? Losses will weigh you down when looking at strength of record.

The ACC rankings show BC at the bottom, with Georgia Tech and Wake Forest just above them.  So why is BC at the ass end of this?

In this case, it's a question of who they beat, more than who they lost to. BC's wins over Maine, Howard and Northern Illinois garnered very few ratings points. Georgia Tech did better, with wins over Alcorn State, Tulane (about the same quality as BC's) but also beating Florida State while Wake defeated Elon, Army but also BC.  With the losses being fairly even, you can see how BC could finish last.

Should BC have beaten Syracuse, they would have jumped all the way to #11...alas!

Take a look at the variances in each poll and you can also compare them to the Sagarin ratings which are also listed. Sagarin rather than Massey this week as there were no changes in the Massey aggregate poll.  See which you more agree with and then of course the point spreads for all the bowl games are listed at the bottom.

Bowl games by their very nature are hard to pick.  Vegas only picks just above 55% winners forget about against the spread.  Coaching changes, long layoff, which team actually wants to be there, etc as well as the fact that you have two generally evenly matched teams means this is hard for anyone to predict and our picks are no different.

Phil Steele's magazine, by our calculations at least, is poised to capture the 2015 title, holding a seven game lead over the Book heading into bowl season.  Both are looking to finish on the plus side of .500 for the year.

Enjoy your Bowl season and Go Eagles!

THE NATIONAL STRENGTH OF RECORD RANKINGS 1-128
SOR GP/PS TEAM REC SAGARIN
1 2/2 Alabama Crimson Tide 12-1 1
2 1/1 Oklahoma Sooners 11-1 2
3 7/9 Clemson Tigers 13-0 3
4 4/3 Stanford Cardinal 11-2 5
5 6/8 Michigan State Spartans 12-1 9
6 12/14 Notre Dame Fighting Irish 10-2 8
7 19/22 Iowa Hawkeyes 12-1 13
8 3/5 Ohio State Buckeyes 11-1 4
9 5/4 TCU Horned Frogs 10-2 7
10 29/30 Northwestern Wildcats 10-2 31
11 9/10 North Carolina Tar Heels 11-2 12
12 25/23 LSU Tigers 8-3 19
13 26/28 Florida Gators 10-3 20
14 21/17 Oklahoma State Cowboys 10-2 16
15 14/19 Houston Cougars 12-1 28
16 47/35 Utah Utes 9-3 24
17 10/7 Ole Miss Rebels 9-3 10
18 8/6 Florida State Seminoles 10-2 6
19 13/12 Oregon Ducks 9-3 18
20 30/26 Michigan Wolverines 9-3 15
21 11/11 Baylor Bears 9-3 11
22 28/20 UCLA Bruins 8-4 26
23 48/52 Toledo Rockets 9-2 43
24 24/24 Georgia Bulldogs 9-3 23
25 45/46 Navy Midshipmen 10-2 32
26 20/15 USC Trojans 8-5 14
27 39/36 Miami-Florida Hurricanes 8-4 44
28 37/34 Temple Owls 10-3 46
29 41/39 Texas A&M Aggies 8-4 30
30 22/33 Western Kentucky Hilltoppers 11-2 40
31 18/21 Mississippi St. Bulldogs 8-4 25
32 36/27 Washington State Cougars 8-4 49
33 35/43 BYU Cougars 93 36
34 40/41 Pittsburgh Panthers 8-4 33
35 31/31 Wisconsin Badgers 9-3 22
36 16/29 Bowling Green Falcons 10-3 41
37 15/13 Arkansas Razorbacks 7-5 21
38 33/40 Memphis Tigers 9-3 42
39 23/18 Tennessee Volunteers 8-4 17
40 52/49 Texas Tech Red Raiders 7-5 38
41 46/38 California Golden Bears 7-5 34
42 34/42 San Diego State Aztecs 10-3 55
43 76/79 Appalachian St. Mountaineers 10-2 60
44 41/37 Arizona State Sun Devils 6-6 39
45 44/45 Louisville Cardinals 7-5 35
46 38/44 South Florida Bulls 8-4 53
47 27/25 West Virginia Mountaineers 7-5 29
48 17/16 Washington Huskies 6-6 27
49 60/71 Arkansas State Red Wolves 9-3 69
50 49/51 Auburn Tigers 6-6 37
51 63/60 Penn State Nittany Lions 7-5 48
52 62/67 Duke Blue Devils 7-5 58
53 57/54 Boise State Broncos 8-4 51
54 53/47 Texas Longhorns 5-7 52
55 71/76 Marshall Thundering Herd 9-3 67
56 55/48 Kansas State Wildcats 6-6 54
57 32/32 Virginia Tech Hokies 6-6 45
58 50/61 Southern Miss Golden Eagles 9-4 72
59 58/62 Cincinnati Bearcats 7-5 59
60 56/53 Arizona Wildcats 6-6 57
60 51/50 N.C. State Wolfpack 7-5 47
62 43/55 Western Michigan Broncos 7-5 65
63 75/83 Ohio University Bobcats 8-4 89
64 73/74 Louisiana Tech Bulldogs 8-4 75
65 64/70 Georgia Southern Eagles 8-4 76
66 68/75 Northern Illinois Huskies 8-5 74
67 78/77 Air Force Falcons 8-5 73
68 59/58 Indiana Hoosiers 6-6 64
69 79/78 Connecticut Huskies 6-6 85
70 61/57 Minnesota Golden Gophers 5-7 63
71 89/87 Colorado State Rams 7-5 86
72 86/86 Central Michigan Chippewas 7-5 80
73 70/72 Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders 7-5 84
74 80/89 New Mexico Lobos 7-5 96
75 74/68 Illinois Fighting Illini 5-7 70
76 54/56 Nebraska Cornhuskers 5-7 50
77 91/91 Tulsa Golden Hurricane 6-6 91
78 69/63 Missouri Tigers 5-7 61
79 87/90 Utah State Aggies 6-6 68
80 85/92 Akron Zips 7-5 92
81 82/80 Kentucky Wildcats 5-7 81
82 66/66 Virginia Cavaliers 4-8 71
83 81/81 Vanderbilt Commodores 4-8 82
84 95/94 Nevada Wolf Pack 6-6 94
85 67/64 Iowa St. Cyclones 3-9 62
86 84/85 East Carolina Pirates 5-7 79
87 77/65 Colorado Buffaloes 4-9 87
88 72/69 South Carolina Gamecocks 3-9 66
89 90/84 Syracuse Orange 4-8 77
90 93/95 Georgia State Panthers 6-6 98
91 65/59 Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets 3-9 56
92 96/97 San Jose State Spartans 5-7 93
93 99/96 Rutgers Scarlet Knights 4-8 90
94 92/88 Maryland Terrapins 3-9 78
95 109/114 South Alabama Jaguars 5-7 107
96 88/82 Wake Forest Demon Deacons 3-9 88
97 117/118 Rice Owls 5-7 108
98 116/117 Old Dominion Monarchs 5-7 121
99 83/73 Boston College Eagles 3-9 83
100 108/112 Texas-El Paso Miners 5-7 119
101 103/104 Buffalo Bulls 5-7 100
102 101/99 Oregon State Beavers 2-10 97
103 97/98 Troy Trojans 4-8 99
104 94/93 Purdue Boilermakers 2-10 95
105 113/108 Tulane Green Wave 3-9 112
106 114/113 Idaho Vandals 4-8 114
107 106/101 SMU Mustangs 2-10 103
108 104/106 Ball State Cardinals 3-9 105
109 110/105 UNLV Rebels 3-9 101
110 100/103 Massachusetts Minutemen 3-9 110
111 111/107 FIU Panthers 5-7 106
112 115/115 Kent State Golden Flashes 3-9 117
113 112/110 Fresno State Bulldogs 3-9 102
114 98/100 Florida Atlantic Owls 3-9 104
115 120/119 Texas-San Antonio Roadrunners 3-9 115
116 127/126 Hawaii Warriors 3-10 122
117 118/120 Louisiana Ragin Cajuns 4-8 109
118 107/111 Miami-Ohio Redhawks 3-9 118
119 122/116 Kansas Jayhawks 0-12 113
120 119/122 New Mexico State Aggies 3-9 124
121 124/125 Texas State Bobcats 3-9 120
122 105/102 Wyoming Cowboys 2-10 116
123 125/127 ULM Warhawks 2-11 125
124 102/109 Army Black Knights 2-10 111
125 121/121 North Texas Mean Green 1-11 126
126 128/128 Charlotte 49ers 2-10 128
127 123/124 Eastern Michigan Eagles 1-11 127
128 126/123 UCF Knights 0-12 123

THE ACC STRENGTH OF RECORD RANKINGS
SOR GP/PS TEAM REC SAGARIN
1 7/9 Clemson 13-0 3
2 9/10 North Carolina 11-2 12
3 8/6 Florida State 10-2 6
4 39/36 Miami 8-4 44
5 40/41 Pittsburgh 8-4 33
6 44/45 Louisville 7-5 35
7 62/78 Duke 7-5 58
8 32/32 Virginia Tech 6-6 45
9 51/50 North Carolina State 7-5 47
10 66/66 Virginia 4-8 71
11 90/84 Syracuse 4-8 77
12 65/59 Georgia Tech 3-9 56
13 88/82 Wake Forest 3-9 88
14 83/73 Boston College 3-9 83

Last weeks head to head results:

Game Plan (The Book): 0-1 .000 , 0 games identical to Vegas spread.   Season to date: 355-346-15 .506, 8 games identical
Phil Steele:  0-1 .000, 0 games identical to Vegas spread.  Season to date: 365-342-15 .516 , 2 game identical

The Vegas spread used is the Danny Sheridan opening line.

NATIONAL SPREADS
FAVORITE GP/PS SPREADS UNDERDOG
Georgia State 3.1/0.7 San Jose State
Arizona 4.7/11.6 New Mexico
Utah +3.3/1.6 BYU
Appalachian State +0.1/1.1 Ohio
Louisiana Tech +1.5/1.3 Arkansas State
Western Kentucky 1.8/0.5 South Florida
Utah State +0.6/1.7 Akron
Temple 3.8/5.1 Toledo
Boise State 3.7/8.3 Northern Illinois
Bowling Green 15.4/15.1 Georgia Southern
Western Michigan 9.8/7.6 Middle Tennessee
San Diego State 8.5/8.1 Cincinnati
Marshall 2.1/0.3 Connecticut
Washington State 0.5/2.9 Miami FL
Washington 8.9/16.9 Southern Mississippi
Indiana 0.9/3.4 Duke
Virginia Tech 19.1/21.8 Tulsa
UCLA 8.8/12.3 Nebraska
Pittsburgh +2.3/0.6 Navy
Minnesota 6.1/9.9 Central Michigan
Colorado State 4.3/5.2 Nevada
California 10.1/13.8 Air Force
North Carolina 3.8/1.6 Baylor
LSU 7.8/8.2 Texas Tech
Memphis 3.7/2.2 Auburn
Mississippi State 6.8/7.2 North Carolina State
Texas A&M 0.5/1.2 Louisville
USC 3.7/7.9 Wisconsin
Florida State 5.7/9.5 Houston
Alabama 9.7/11.2 Michigan State
Oklahoma 12.2/14.1 Clemson
Tennessee 1.6/4.1 Northwestern
Florida 3.1/1.5 Michigan
Ohio State 7.3/8.1 Notre Dame
Stanford 10.6/14.1 Iowa
Mississippi 10.8/10.6 Oklahoma State
Georgia 13.7/14.2 Penn State
Arkansas 15.2/14.9 Kansas State
TCU 7.6/7.9 Oregon
West Virginia 1.0/1.4 Arizona State