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The Book 2015: Week 10

Week 9 best of year against spread. Eagles TD dog in home finale. Bama big vs LSU in SEC game of the year.

By John Fidler
Fournette, LSU take on Tide
Fournette, LSU take on Tide
Derick E. Hingle-USA TODAY Sports

Both the Book and Phil Steele had their best weeks of the season, each posting 31-21 records to both go over the .500 mark for the season.  Think about it this way, if you wagered $100 a game, through week 9, you'd be up $1400 using Steele as a guideline and $600 using the Book.

For next season, there will be further automation specifically around winning against the spread. And for those of you who dabble in the NFL, the Book went 11-3 this past week.  Success all around!

That's more than can be said obviously about our Eagles.  BC continues to hold the 12th slot in the ACC, but is sliding down the national rankings, currently at #80 based on the Book metrics and #74 through Phil Steele. These are both though higher than the Massey composite rankings who list the Eagles at #86, just a single notch above Yukon and ahead of just five power five conference schools (Purdue, Wake, Colorado, Oregon St and Kansas).  This season definitely has taken on a Spaz feeling when it comes to those rankings.

The home finale against NC State finds BC a touchdown underdog to the Pack.  Something related to the number five has to give here.  BC is in the middle of a five game losing streak, while NC State has never beaten the Eagles in Boston since they joined the ACC (0-5).

The big national game this week is in Tuscaloosa, where our #2/3 team, Alabama takes on #10/11 LSU.  Vegas looks at the Tide as a 7 point favorite over the Tigers, but if you listen to our two polls, it's Roll Tide all the way, with Bama an 11.7/13.0 prohibitive choice over Les Miles' squad.

As we get into the College Football Playoff rankings, strength of schedule is going to be perhaps the key factor in separating teams with similar resumes.  Here are our strength of schedule for the top 20 in our polls:  TCU - tie 33, Alabama - 1, Oklahoma - tie 33, Baylor - 93, Ohio State - 56, Clemson - 24, Florida - 16, Stanford - 12, Notre Dame - 2, LSU - 32, USC -15, Houston - 112, Mississippi - 31, Oklahoma State - 63, Iowa - 49, Michigan State - 46, Tennessee - 29, Mississippi State - 52, North Carolina - 65, Memphis - 85.

These seem to lend credence to the early candidacies of Alabama and Notre Dame for one loss entrants and show how critical the final month of the Big 12 season will be with all the contenders playing against each other and enhancing their SOS, particularly Baylor.

Starting this week we will post the college football playoff rankings for those teams which are ranked, next to the Massey rankings.

Enjoy your football weekend and Go Eagles!

THE NATIONAL RANKINGS 1-128
GP PS TEAM REC MASSEY/CFP
1 1 TCU Horned Frogs 8-0 5/8
2 3 Alabama Crimson Tide 7-1 4/4
3 4 Oklahoma Sooners 7-1 12/15
4 2 Baylor Bears 7-0 7/6
5 5 Ohio State Buckeyes 8-0 2/3
6 7 Clemson Tigers 8-0 1/1
7 10 Florida Gators 7-1 9/10
8 6 Stanford Cardinal 7-1 11/11
9 9 Notre Dame Fighting Irish 7-1 6/5
10 11 LSU Tigers 7-0 3/2
11 8 USC Trojans 5-3 18
12 17 Houston Cougars 8-0 19/25
13 13 Ole Miss Rebels 7-2 17/18
14 12 Oklahoma State Cowboys 8-0 13/14
15 15 Iowa Hawkeyes 8-0 10/9
16 16 Michigan State Spartans 8-0 8/7
17 14 Tennessee Volunteers 4-4 29
18 18 Mississippi St. Bulldogs 6-2 21/20
19 19 North Carolina Tar Heels 7-1 24
20 28 Memphis Tigers 8-0 15/13
21 21 Michigan Wolverines 6-2 16/17
22 25 Wisconsin Badgers 7-2 25
23 20 Florida State Seminoles 7-1 20/16
24 33 Bowling Green Falcons 6-2 37
25 23 Boise State Broncos 7-2 34
26 22 UCLA Bruins 6-2 27/23
27 26 Utah Utes 7-1 14/12
28 31 Duke Blue Devils 6-2 36
29 24 Oregon Ducks 5-3 38
30 27 Washington Huskies 4-4 39
31 30 Texas A&M Aggies 6-2 23/19
32 35 Toledo Rockets 7-0 22/24
33 37 Virginia Tech Hokies 4-5 57
34 41 Temple Owls 7-1 26/22
35 29 Arkansas Razorbacks 4-4 44
36 38 BYU Cougars 6-2 30
37 32 Georgia Bulldogs 5-3 41
38 43 Miami-Florida Hurricanes 5-3 43
39 50 Western Kentucky Hilltoppers 7-2 42
40 34 Washington State Cougars 5-3 47
41 36 Penn State Nittany Lions 7-2 31
42 39 California Golden Bears 5-3 33
43 47 Northwestern Wildcats 6-2 32/21
44 46 San Diego State Aztecs 6-3 56
45 48 Pittsburgh Panthers 6-2 35
46 57 Navy Midshipmen 6-1 28
47 45 Auburn Tigers 4-4 52
48 44 N.C. State Wolfpack 5-3 50
49 40 West Virginia Mountaineers 3-4 45
50 54 Louisiana Tech Bulldogs 6-3 58
51 53 Cincinnati Bearcats 5-3 48
52 49 Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets 3-6 61
53 42 Arizona State Sun Devils 4-4 49
54 55 Utah State Aggies 5-3 53
55 51 Louisville Cardinals 4-4 51
56 61 Appalachian St. Mountaineers 7-1 40
57 56 Texas Tech Red Raiders 5-4 46
58 60 Iowa St. Cyclones 3-5 64
59 70 Western Michigan Broncos 5-3 59
60 58 Texas Longhorns 3-5 60
61 73 Georgia Southern Eagles 6-2 55
62 59 Missouri Tigers 4-4 68
63 65 South Carolina Gamecocks 3-5 77
64 69 Northern Illinois Huskies 5-3 74
65 52 Kansas State Wildcats 3-4 62
66 67 Nebraska Cornhuskers 3-6 72
67 63 Virginia Cavaliers 3-5 76
68 62 Arizona Wildcats 5-4 67
69 76 Marshall Thundering Herd 8-1 54
70 71 Central Michigan Chippewas 5-4 63
71 81 Southern Miss Golden Eagles 6-3 79
72 64 Minnesota Golden Gophers 4-4 65
73 72 Vanderbilt Commodores 3-5 82
74 77 Air Force Falcons 5-3 70
75 75 South Florida Bulls 4-4 73
76 66 Colorado Buffaloes 4-5 88
77 79 Purdue Boilermakers 2-6 90
78 68 Illinois Fighting Illini 4-4 66
79 78 Kentucky Wildcats 4-4 71
80 74 Boston College Eagles 3-6 86
81 85 Tulsa Golden Hurricane 4-4 81
82 84 East Carolina Pirates 4-5 75
83 89 Arkansas State Red Wolves 5-3 78
84 83 Connecticut Huskies 4-5 87
85 80 Maryland Terrapins 2-6 84
86 93 Ohio University Bobcats 5-3 80
87 86 Syracuse Orange 3-5 85
88 82 Indiana Hoosiers 4-4 69
89 87 Wake Forest Demon Deacons 3-6 91
90 96 Akron Zips 3-5 95
91 90 Colorado State Rams 3-5 94
92 94 San Jose State Spartans 4-4 93
93 97 Buffalo Bulls 4-4 89
94 88 Rutgers Scarlet Knights 3-5 83
95 92 Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders 3-5 92
96 91 Oregon State Beavers 2-6 97
97 100 Nevada Wolf Pack 4-4 98
98 98 Ball State Cardinals 3-6 100
99 101 Louisiana Ragin Cajuns 3-4 99
100 99 Troy Trojans 2-6 105
101 95 FIU Panthers 4-5 104
102 102 Rice Owls 4-4 96
103 109 New Mexico Lobos 4-4 108
104 103 Tulane Green Wave 2-6 103
105 108 UNLV Rebels 2-6 106
106 107 Massachusetts Minutemen 1-7 111
107 113 Florida Atlantic Owls 2-6 112
108 105 Kent State Golden Flashes 3-5 101
109 110 Texas State Bobcats 2-5 107
110 106 Wyoming Cowboys 1-8 121
111 104 SMU Mustangs 1-7 109
112 111 Army Black Knights 2-6 114
113 112 Texas-San Antonio Roadrunners 1-7 119
114 116 Georgia State Panthers 2-5 118
115 119 Idaho Vandals 3-5 113
116 121 ULM Warhawks 1-7 122
117 114 Kansas Jayhawks 0-8 117
118 117 Fresno State Bulldogs 2-6 110
119 122 South Alabama Jaguars 3-4 102
120 120 North Texas Mean Green 1-7 123
121 125 Texas-El Paso Miners 3-5 120
122 115 Hawaii Warriors 2-7 116
123 123 Old Dominion Monarchs 3-5 115
124 118 UCF Knights 0-9 125
125 124 Miami-Ohio Redhawks 1-8 124
126 127 Eastern Michigan Eagles 1-8 127
127 126 New Mexico State Aggies 1-7 128
128 128 Charlotte 49ers 2-6 126

THE ACC RANKINGS
GP PS TEAM REC MASSEY
1 1 Clemson 8-0 1
2 2 North Carolina 7-1 24
3 3 Florida State 7-1 20
4 4 Duke 6-2 36
5 5 Virginia Tech 4-5 57
6 6 Miami 5-3 43
7 8 Pittsburgh 6-2 35
8 7 NC State 5-3 50
9 9 Georgia Tech 3-6 61
10 10 Louisville 4-4 51
11 11 Virginia 3-5 76
12 12 Boston College 3-6 86
13 13 Syracuse 3-5 85
14 14 Wake Forest 3-6 91

Last weeks head to head results:

GamePlan (The Book): 31-21 .596, 0 games identical to Vegas spread.   Season to date: 232-226-9 .506, 3 games identical
Phil Steele:  31-21 .596, 0 games identical to Vegas spread.  Season to date: 237-223-9 .515, 1 game identical

The Vegas spread used is the Danny Sheridan opening line.

NATIONAL/ACC/BC OPPONENT SPREADS
FAVORITE GP/PS SPREADS UNDERDOG
Baylor 19.6/19.4 at Kansas State
Mississippi State 10.7/8.5 at Missouri
at Houston 17.5/16.6 Cincinnati
at Memphis 12.1/13.2 Navy
at Michigan 31.0/29.1 Rutgers
Michigan State 12.3/14.0 Nebraska
at Ohio State 31.5/31.9 Minnesota
NC State 6.9/7.0 at Boston College
at Clemson 14.8/14.1 Florida State
at North Carolina 8.2/9.1 Duke
at Louisville 16.9/17.8 Syracuse
at Miami 11.1/10.2 Virginia
Notre Dame 12.4/13.1 at Pittsburgh
at USC 24.4/27.7 Arizona
UCLA 21.0/22.2 at Oregon State
Stanford 22.4/22.8 at Colorado
at Oregon 9.5/11.9 California
at Oklahoma 29.2/30.0 Iowa State
Iowa 23.9/21.4 at Indiana
at Alabama 11.7/13.0 LSU
at Florida 29.5/30.5 Vanderbilt
at Mississippi 14.0/10.3 Arkansas
at Tennessee 20.3/23.0 South Carolina
Wisconsin 18.7/17.7 Maryland


















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