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The Book 2015: Week 12

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Alabama is #1 across the board, but not the CFP. North Carolina rolls into our top 4. Eagles huge dog at Fenway vs Irish.

Hot Heels crack our top four
Hot Heels crack our top four
Evan Pike-USA TODAY Sports

The bye week is over and the Boston College Eagles are still unfortunately 3-7 heading into the long awaited Fenway Park game with Notre Dame. The Irish, of course, have a lot more to play for than the Eagles this year, sitting at #4 in the most recent College Football Playoff rankings and seemingly just two wins away from securing their place in the mix.

The Book and Phil Steele are very bullish on the Irish this week, with the 16-17 point spread put out by Vegas nothing more than a speed bump, to what they both believe will be a four touchdown win by ND.  Once again, the number seems awfully high, but I will caution you that both publications once again posted over .500 weeks, with Steele opening up an even larger advantage for the season after going 56% for the week, good for a nine game lead over GamePlan.

BC now sits at #87 in the Book and #81 with Steele.  The 87 ranking matching what the Massey composite system offers as well. For you Sagarin fans, Jeff has the Eagles at #84 this week, so all are in reasonable agreement as to the plight of the Birds.

The hottest team in both polls right now are the North Carolina Tar Heels.  Larry Fedora's bunch continues to pummel ACC Coastal opposition and now sits in the driver's seat for a berth in the ACC Championship game opposite Clemson.  The Heels are now actually higher rated than Clemson by both magazines and would be in the CFP if this analysis had its way.

The other teams in this week, depending on the flavor you prefer.  Book: 1) Alabama, 2) Oklahoma, 3) North Carolina, 4) Ohio State.  Steele:  1) Alabama, 2) Oklahoma, 3) Ohio State, 4) North Carolina.

Enjoy your football weekend and Go Eagles!

THE NATIONAL RANKINGS 1-128
GP PS TEAM REC MASSEY/CFP
1 1 Alabama Crimson Tide 9-1 1/2
2 2 Oklahoma Sooners 9-1 4/7
3 4 North Carolina Tar Heels 9-1 14/17
4 3 Ohio State Buckeyes 10-0 3/3
5 8 Oklahoma State Cowboys 10-0 6/6
6 5 Baylor Bears 8-1 9/10
7 10 Clemson Tigers 10-0 2/1
8 11 Notre Dame Fighting Irish 9-1 5/4
9 13 Florida Gators 9-1 7/8
10 6 Stanford Cardinal 8-2 12/11
11 7 TCU Horned Frogs 9-1 10/18
12 9 Arkansas Razorbacks 6-4 25
13 12 Oregon Ducks 7-3 27/23
14 26 Bowling Green Falcons 8-2 28
15 21 Houston Cougars 10-0 15/19
16 17 LSU Tigers 7-2 17/15
17 15 Florida State Seminoles 8-2 19/14
18 14 USC Trojans 7-3 20/24
19 25 Mississippi St. Bulldogs 7-3 24
20 23 Michigan Wolverines 8-2 13/12
21 16 Ole Miss Rebels 7-3 21/22
22 20 Iowa Hawkeyes 10-0 8/5
23 29 Michigan State Spartans 9-1 11/9
24 18 Washington State Cougars 7-3 36
25 27 Wisconsin Badgers 8-2 22/25
26 32 Navy Midshipmen 8-1 16/16
27 19 UCLA Bruins 7-3 32
28 22 Georgia Bulldogs 7-3 31
29 33 Memphis Tigers 8-2 23/21
30 24 Utah Utes 8-2 18/13
31 28 Tennessee Volunteers 6-4 26
32 30 Pittsburgh Panthers 7-3 33
33 34 Virginia Tech Hokies 5-5 54
34 35 Auburn Tigers 5-5 44
35 31 West Virginia Mountaineers 5-4 35
36 42 Louisville Cardinals 6-4 42
37 48 Louisiana Tech Bulldogs 7-3 58
38 36 Boise State Broncos 7-3 52
39 44 San Diego State Aztecs 7-3 60
40 45 Northwestern Wildcats 8-2 29/20
41 50 Cincinnati Bearcats 6-4 48
42 37 Arizona Wildcats 6-5 62
43 41 Arizona State Sun Devils 5-5 50
44 40 Penn State Nittany Lions 7-3 37
45 49 Toledo Rockets 8-1 30
46 43 N.C. State Wolfpack 6-4 46
47 61 Northern Illinois Huskies 7-3 56
48 38 California Golden Bears 6-4 39
49 67 Georgia Southern Eagles 7-2 49
50 62 Western Kentucky Hilltoppers 8-2 41
51 52 Nebraska Cornhuskers 5-6 53
52 39 Washington Huskies 4-6 57
53 58 South Florida Bulls 6-4 51
54 47 Texas Tech Red Raiders 6-5 43
55 46 Texas A&M Aggies 7-3 34
56 54 BYU Cougars 7-3 40
57 51 Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets 3-7 69
58 69 Western Michigan Broncos 6-4 61
59 55 Miami-Florida Hurricanes 6-4 47
60 57 Temple Owls 8-2 38
61 73 Southern Miss Golden Eagles 7-3 73
62 64 South Carolina Gamecocks 3-7 76
63 56 Iowa St. Cyclones 3-7 71
64 65 Duke Blue Devils 6-4 55
65 53 Minnesota Golden Gophers 4-6 68
66 59 Missouri Tigers 5-5 65
67 70 Vanderbilt Commodores 4-6 75
68 76 Arkansas State Red Wolves 7-3 66
69 63 Texas Longhorns 4-6 67
70 72 Marshall Thundering Herd 9-2 59
71 65 Illinois Fighting Illini 5-5 63
72 75 Appalachian State Mountaineers 8-2 45
73 71 Virginia Cavaliers 3-7 81
74 60 Kansas State Wildcats 3-6 72
75 74 Air Force Falcons 7-3 64
76 78 Central Michigan Chippewas 5-5 70
77 77 Utah State Aggies 5-5 77
78 68 Colorado Buffaloes 4-7 94
79 79 Indiana Hoosiers 4-6 74
80 80 Maryland Terrapins 2-8 83
81 82 Kentucky Wildcats 4-6 80
82 84 Connecticut Huskies 5-5 85
83 91 New Mexico Lobos 6-4 93
84 88 Tulsa Golden Hurricane 5-5 84
85 85 Syracuse Orange 3-7 86
86 86 Colorado State Rams 5-5 90
87 81 Boston College Eagles 3-7 87
88 83 Wake Forest Demon Deacons 3-7 95
89 87 Purdue Boilermakers 2-8 98
90 89 Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders 5-5 82
91 93 Ohio University Bobcats 6-4 79
92 90 East Carolina Pirates 4-6 78
93 95 Akron Zips 5-5 91
94 96 Nevada Wolf Pack 6-4 92
95 94 San Jose State Spartans 4-6 96
96 98 Buffalo Bulls 5-5 88
97 92 Rutgers Scarlet Knights 3-7 89
98 99 Troy Trojans 3-7 101
99 104 Louisiana Ragin Cajuns 4-5 100
100 100 UNLV Rebels 3-7 104
101 101 Tulane Green Wave 3-7 103
102 108 Florida Atlantic Owls 2-8 114
103 105 Ball State Cardinals 3-7 105
104 97 Oregon State Beavers 2-8 99
105 103 Massachusetts Minutemen 2-8 112
106 102 FIU Panthers 5-6 102
107 107 Georgia State Panthers 3-6 111
108 114 South Alabama Jaguars 5-4 97
109 106 SMU Mustangs 1-9 110
110 111 Army Black Knights 2-8 119
111 113 Fresno State Bulldogs 3-7 109
112 109 Kansas Jayhawks 0-10 115
113 115 Old Dominion Monarchs 5-5 106
114 110 Wyoming Cowboys 1-10 124
115 112 Kent State Golden Flashes 3-7 108
116 117 North Texas Mean Green 1-9 123
117 118 Rice Owls 4-6 107
118 116 Texas-San Antonio Roadrunners 2-8 117
119 120 New Mexico State Aggies 2-7 120
120 121 Miami-Ohio Redhawks 2-9 121
121 122 Texas-El Paso Miners 4-6 116
122 119 UCF Knights 0-10 125
123 123 Idaho Vandals 3-7 113
124 124 Texas State Bobcats 2-7 118
125 126 ULM Warhawks 1-9 126
126 127 Eastern Michigan Eagles 1-10 128
127 128 Charlotte 49ers 2-8 127
128 125 Hawaii Warriors 2-9 122

THE ACC RANKINGS
GP PS TEAM REC MASSEY
1 1 Clemson 10-0 2
2 2 North Carolina 9-1 14
3 3 Florida State 8-2 19
4 4 Pittsburgh 7-3 33
5 5 Virginia Tech 5-5 54
6 6 Louisville 6-4 42
7 7 NC State 6-4 46
8 9 Georgia Tech 3-7 69
9 8 Miami 6-4 47
10 10 Duke 6-4 55
11 11 Virginia 3-7 81
12 14 Syracuse 3-7 86
13 12 Boston College 3-7 87
14 13 Wake Forest 3-7 95

Last weeks head to head results:

GamePlan (The Book): 29-28-1 .509 , 0 games identical to Vegas spread.   Season to date: 289-283-12 .505, 4 games identical
Phil Steele:  32-25-1 .560, 0 games identical to Vegas spread.  Season to date: 299-275-12 .520, 2 game identical

The Vegas spread used is the Danny Sheridan opening line.

NATIONAL/ACC/BC OPPONENT SPREADS
FAVORITE GP/PS SPREADS UNDERDOG
Houston 20.2/18.3 at Connecticut
at Oklahoma 17.4/14.9 TCU
at Oklahoma St. 5.6/2.9 Baylor
at Iowa 25.8/28.4 Purdue
at Ohio St. 15.4/19.1 Michigan St.
Michigan 3.4/1.9 at Penn St.
at Wisconsin 12.1/12.4 Northwestern
at Arkansas 8.9/12.9 Mississippi St.
at Florida 43.5/48.5 Florida Atlantic
at Mississippi 2.8/4.2 LSU
at Clemson 33.7/34.3 Wake Forest
at Virginia 0.4/1.3 Duke
at Miami 3.1/2.0 Georgia Tech
at Pittsburgh 7.5/7.5 Louisville
North Carolina 11.0/11.9 at Virginia Tech
at NC State 16.4/18.6 Syracuse
at Oregon 8.9/6.5 USC
at Washington St. 18.8/18.3 Colorado
at Stanford 20.1/20.9 California
Notre Dame 29.1/28.8 Boston College