I had a great deal of worry entering last week's game. Spreads in both the Book and in Phil Steele had just gotten too high. When that happens and every pick says "take the favorite", it is usually time to take a dip and that is exactly what happened. Virtually none of the big favorites covered and both sets of selections, particularly Steele slumped badly. Both are now under .500 for the year, with The Book now holding a 10 game lead overall.
The rash of upsets as well as the poor performance of some of the more highly rated teams has caused another seismic shift in the rankings, with Alabama, somewhat left by the side of the road after their loss to Ole Miss, routing Georgia and returning to the #1 spot in the Book. TCU who castrated Bevo, is #1 with Steele. Interestingly the four top teams in both polls are the same, albeit in different order. Also, interestingly none of the four are in the top four of the Massey composite poll, with now 90 polls reporting.
BC actually rose in the rankings despite the loss as this is not all about wins and losses, but about how teams stack rank against each other. The loss to Duke then, was considered a good, competitive loss and the Eagles were rewarded by moving up to 64 in the Book, 59 with Phil Steele, far more in line with the 62 that Massey rates them.
You may see some really odd rankings here. Michigan State at #21/25 for instance. Jeff Sagarin, who I know most of you view as the authoritative computer poll lists the Spartans at #34! So we aren't so crazy.
Strength of schedule is also something that we compute week over week. This is a bit more simplistic model perhaps than some that are used, but here are the top 10 and bottom 10 strengths of schedule to date. BC currently is #102, the third weakest in the ACC ahead of just NC State (#107 and notoriously the weakest non conf in the ACC) and Syracuse at #111.
- Notre Dame
- South Carolina
- Texas Tech
|GP||PS||TEAM||REC||STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE|
|6||7||North Carolina State||4-1||107|
|NC State||0.5/+0.9||at Virginia Tech|
|at Boston College||11.3/13.3||Wake Forest|
|at Clemson||12.0/11.7||Georgia Tech|
|at Mississippi State||32.3/38.9||Troy|
|at Mississippi||45.4/55.8||New Mexico State|
|LSU||9.0/11.3||at South Carolina|
|TCU||9.6/15.8||at Kansas State|
|at West Virginia||1.8/0.1||Oklahoma State|
|at Florida State||16.0/18.6||Miami|
|Syracuse||5.6/4.3||at South Florida|
|at Ohio State||34.3/40.2||Maryland|
|at Notre Dame||14.3/20.4||Navy|
|Boise State||21.1/29.1||at Colorado State|
|Michigan State||14.2/13.4||at Rutgers|