clock menu more-arrow no yes

Filed under:

The Book 2015: Week 6

New, 5 comments

Roll Tide! Alabama back in the national championship race. Year to date strength of schedule. Eagles climb despite loss. Double digit favorite in #theRivalry.

Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports

I had a great deal of worry entering last week's game.  Spreads in both the Book and in Phil Steele had just gotten too high.  When that happens and every pick says "take the favorite", it is usually time to take a dip and that is exactly what happened.  Virtually none of the big favorites covered and both sets of selections, particularly Steele slumped badly.  Both are now under .500 for the year, with The Book now holding a 10 game lead overall.

The rash of upsets as well as the poor performance of some of the more highly rated teams has caused another seismic shift in the rankings, with Alabama, somewhat left by the side of the road after their loss to Ole Miss, routing Georgia and returning to the #1 spot in the Book.  TCU who castrated Bevo, is #1 with Steele.  Interestingly the four top teams in both polls are the same, albeit in different order.  Also, interestingly none of the four are in the top four of the Massey composite poll, with now 90 polls reporting.

BC actually rose in the rankings despite the loss as this is not all about wins and losses, but about how teams stack rank against each other. The loss to Duke then, was considered a good, competitive loss and the Eagles were rewarded by moving up to 64 in the Book, 59 with Phil Steele, far more in line with the 62 that Massey rates them.

You may see some really odd rankings here.  Michigan State at #21/25 for instance.  Jeff Sagarin, who I know most of you view as the authoritative computer poll lists the Spartans at #34!  So we aren't so crazy.

Strength of schedule is also something that we compute week over week.  This is a bit more simplistic model perhaps than some that are used, but here are the top 10 and bottom 10 strengths of schedule to date.  BC currently is #102, the third weakest in the ACC ahead of just NC State (#107 and notoriously the weakest non conf in the ACC) and Syracuse at #111.

  1. Texas
  2. Alabama
  3. Arkansas
  4. Notre Dame
  5. BYU
  6. Virginia
  7. South Carolina
  8. Texas Tech
  9. Louisville
  10. Stanford
the Bottom ten:

128. New Mexico
127. Appalachian State
126. Charlotte
125. Marshall
124. Houston
123. San Diego State
122. Texas-El Paso
121. Wyoming
120. Old Dominion
119. Florida International

Enjoy your football weekend and Go Eagles!

THE NATIONAL RANKINGS 1-128
GP PS TEAM REC MASSEY
1 3 Alabama Crimson Tide 4-1 5
2 1 TCU Horned Frogs 5-0 9
3 2 Baylor Bears 4-0 8
4 4 Stanford Cardinal 4-1 10
5 17 Florida Gators 5-0 7
6 9 Oklahoma Sooners 4-0 1
7 5 USC Trojans 3-1 15
8 8 Notre Dame Fighting Irish 4-1 19
9 7 Boise State Broncos 4-1 26
10 11 Texas A&M Aggies 5-0 3
11 6 Ohio State Buckeyes 5-0 2
12 12 Utah Utes 4-0 4
13 10 Ole Miss Rebels 4-1 17
14 22 Iowa Hawkeyes 5-0 18
15 13 Florida State Seminoles 4-0 14
16 14 UCLA Bruins 4-1 21
17 19 Michigan Wolverines 4-1 13
18 15

Clemson Tigers

4-0 6
19 18 LSU Tigers 4-0 12
20 20 Northwestern Wildcats 5-0 11
21 25 Michigan State Spartans 5-0 16
22 16 Georgia Bulldogs 4-1 22
23 21 Oklahoma State Cowboys 5-0 20
24 26 North Carolina Tar Heels 4-1 35
25 24 Mississippi St. Bulldogs 3-2 31
26 30 Duke Blue Devils 4-1 29
27 39 Memphis Tigers 5-0 33
28 36 Louisville Cardinals 2-3 48
29 44 Houston Cougars 4-0 27
30 31 California Golden Bears 5-0 28
31 37 N.C. State Wolfpack 4-1 41
31 23 Oregon Ducks 3-2 42
33 29 Wisconsin Badgers 3-2 34
34 34 West Virginia Mountaineers 3-1 23
35 28 Kansas State Wildcats 3-1 30
36 51 Navy Midshipmen 4-0 24
37 40 Western Kentucky Hilltoppers 4-1 40
38 41 Toledo Rockets 4-0 25
39 43 Pittsburgh Panthers 3-1 36
40 47 Temple Owls 4-0 32
41 32 Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets 2-3 53
42 33 Tennessee Volunteers 2-3 44
43 35 Texas Tech Red Raiders 3-2 45
44 27 Arkansas Razorbacks 2-3 47
45 45 BYU Cougars 3-2 36
46 38 Arizona State Sun Devils 3-2 38
47 42 Auburn Tigers 3-2 51
48 55 Kentucky Wildcats 4-1 43
49 46 Missouri Tigers 4-1 39
50 50 Virginia Tech Hokies 2-3 66
51 64 Georgia Southern Eagles 4-1 60
52 52 Miami-Florida Hurricanes 3-1 52
53 56 Nebraska Cornhuskers 2-3 63
54 57 Penn State Nittany Lions 4-1 49
55 48 Illinois Fighting Illini 4-1 50
56 49 Washington Huskies 2-2 54
57 70 Ohio University Bobcats 4-1 59
58 54 Louisiana Tech Bulldogs 3-2 64
59 58 Cincinnati Bearcats 3-2 61
60 53 Arizona Wildcats 3-2 58
61 71 Bowling Green Falcons 3-2 70
62 60 Vanderbilt Commodores 2-3 74
63 63 East Carolina Pirates 3-2 56
64 59 Boston College Eagles 3-2 62
65 74 Air Force Falcons 2-2 68
66 67 South Carolina Gamecocks 2-3 69
67 73 Syracuse Orange 3-1 57
68 69 Marshall Thundering Herd 4-1 65
69 75 Iowa St. Cyclones 2-2 71
70 68 Utah State Aggies 2-2 72
71 85 Tulsa Golden Hurricane 2-2 75
72 80 Purdue Boilermakers 1-4 98
73 61 Texas Longhorns 1-4 77
74 86 Southern Miss Golden Eagles 3-2 88
75 66 Colorado Buffaloes 3-2 79
76 65 Minnesota Golden Gophers 3-2 55
77 84 Western Michigan Broncos 1-3 91
78 83 Central Michigan Chippewas 2-3 76
79 82 Northern Illinois Huskies 2-3 78
80 72 Washington State Cougars 2-2 83
81 78 Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders 2-3 81
82 62 Indiana Hoosiers 4-1 46
83 76 Appalachian St. Mountaineers 3-1 67
84 94 Akron Zips 2-3 86
85 77 Rutgers Scarlet Knights 2-2 90
86 79 Virginia Cavaliers 1-3 84
87 90 Colorado State Rams 2-3 92
88 89 San Jose State Spartans 2-3 96
89 88 Ball State Cardinals 2-3 80
90 87 Wake Forest Demon Deacons 2-3 82
91 81 Oregon State Beavers 2-2 73
92 98 Arkansas State Red Wolves 2-3 87
93 92 South Florida Bulls 1-3 104
94 103 Buffalo Bulls 2-3 100
95 96 Massachusetts Minutemen 1-3 102
96 102 Nevada Wolf Pack 2-3 94
97 91 San Diego State Aztecs 2-3 95
98 93 Maryland Terrapins 2-3 85
99 104 UNLV Rebels 2-3 93
100 95 Connecticut Huskies 2-3 89
101 105 Rice Owls 2-3 106
102 107 Army Black Knights 1-4 111
103 112 New Mexico Lobos 3-2 103
104 110 ULM Warhawks 1-3 108
105 109 Louisiana Ragin Cajuns 1-3 112
106 97 Hawaii Warriors 2-3 97
107 101 FIU Panthers 2-3 107
108 111 Texas-San Antonio Roadrunners 1-4 113
109 99 Kent State Golden Flashes 2-3 105
110 99 Tulane Green Wave 2-2 101
111 114 Florida Atlantic Owls 1-3 115
112 113 South Alabama Jaguars 3-2 99
113 116 Troy Trojans 1-3 116
114 106 SMU Mustangs 1-4 109
115 117 Kansas Jayhawks 0-4 121
116 115 Texas State Bobcats 1-3 110
117 108 UCF Knights 0-5 117
118 118 Fresno State Bulldogs 1-4 118
119 124 Eastern Michigan Eagles 1-4 124
120 119 Old Dominion Monarchs 2-3 114
121 126 Texas-El Paso Miners 2-3 120
122 122 Georgia State Panthers 1-3 125
123 123 Idaho Vandals 1-4 119
124 120 Miami-Ohio Redhawks 1-4 122
125 127 New Mexico State Aggies 0-4 128
126 128 Charlotte 49ers 2-3 123
127 125 North Texas Mean Green 0-4 126
128 121 Wyoming Cowboys 0-5 127

THE ACC RANKINGS
GP PS TEAM REC STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE
1 1 Florida State 4-0 70
2 2 Clemson 4-0 29
3 3 North Carolina 4-1 89
4 4 Duke 4-1 81
5 6 Louisville 2-3 9
6 7 North Carolina State 4-1 107
7 8 Pittsburgh 3-1 47
8 5 Georgia Tech 2-3 33
9 9 Virginia Tech 2-3 38
10 10 Miami 3-1 84
11 11 Boston College 3-2 102
12 12 Syracuse 3-1 111
13 13 Virginia 1-3 6
14 14 Wake Forest 2-3 94

Last weeks head to head results:

GamePlan (The Book):  24-33-1 .422 , 0 games identical to Vegas spread.  Season to date: 122-123-4 .498 , 2 games identical
Phil Steele:  18-39-1 .319, 0 games identical to Vegas spread.  Season to date: 113-134-5 .458, 0 games identical

The Vegas spread used is the Danny Sheridan opening line.

NATIONAL/ACC/BC OPPONENT SPREADS
FAVORITE GP/PS SPREADS UNDERDOG
at USC 20.8/23.0 Washington
NC State 0.5/+0.9 at Virginia Tech
at Boston College 11.3/13.3 Wake Forest
at Clemson 12.0/11.7 Georgia Tech
at Alabama 22.7/20.3 Arkansas
at Mississippi State 32.3/38.9 Troy
Florida 10.3/4.9 at Missouri
at Mississippi 45.4/55.8 New Mexico State
LSU 9.0/11.3 at South Carolina
Georgia 0.8/1.7 at Tennessee
at Utah 10.9/12.2 California
Baylor 37.2/48.2 at Kansas
TCU 9.6/15.8 at Kansas State
Oklahoma 21.5/18.8 Texas
at West Virginia 1.8/0.1 Oklahoma State
at Florida State 16.0/18.6 Miami
at Pittsburgh 17.8/16.1 Virginia
Syracuse 5.6/4.3 at South Florida
at Ohio State 34.3/40.2 Maryland
at Iowa 16.4/12.3 Illinois
Duke 19.4/23.5 at Army
at Notre Dame 14.3/20.4 Navy
at Michigan 6.2/5.3 Northwestern
Boise State 21.1/29.1 at Colorado State
Michigan State 14.2/13.4 at Rutgers