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The Book - Week 13 - November 22, 2014

Oregon holds tight at #1, Bama close behind. Eagles a 20 point dog at FSU.

BC visits the Chief as a big dog
BC visits the Chief as a big dog
Melina Vastola-USA TODAY Sports

At some point, all good win streaks must come to an end and so it was with The Book last week. Historically, there has been a November week were it all comes crashing down and I think last week was it. It wasn't the bath it sometimes can be, but nevertheless, the six week run of success came to a temporary end. 21-27 .438 with 2 the same as Vegas for the week, now 269-260-7 .508 with 35 the same for the season. OK..not great...still hoping for a fantastic finish to get up toward the 53-54% win rate.

This week, there really aren't a lot of marquis games. Those are generally the weeks when something big happens. BC for instance, travels to Book #8 Florida State and will be a 20 point dog to the Seminoles. Can BC pull the biggest shocker since the 1993 win at Notre Dame? Probably not, but there are some things that Vegas traditionally looks at which should give you some hope.

  • BC comes off a bye week, while FSU was in a mammoth tussle at Miami
  • This definitely fits the definition of sandwich game for the Seminoles, with the BC game coming in between two very traditional Florida State rivals in Miami and the season finale against Florida

The Book is on record as taking FSU, with Vegas calling this a 19 1/2 point spread, but you have to think with the way the Noles have struggled to put teams away this season and the aforementioned "good omens" for the Eagles, that BC can at least cover. Remember though, that The Book is 7-2 in picking BC games this year, but does come in off a loss.

In the national poll, there was some shakeup, with Oregon still holding on to the #1 spot and Alabama coming in at #2. The ACC poll took a more major shift, with Georgia Tech now sitting at #2 and season long runner up Clemson dropping all the way to #4. BC slid down one spot to #8 in the ACC and #53 nationally, which is slightly lower than the combined Massey rating which has them at #47.

One of the more interesting things I look at during a given week are teams which are overrated vs the Massey or Sagarin ratings and those which are underrated. It gives me pause to ask why and then see what I can adjust year to year, if warranted, to level things out.

This year, the most overrated team to date goes to the Houston Cougars. Houston sits at #51 in our poll, but #74 in the Massey ratings. I have to agree on this one. Despite, UH's fair 5-4 record, they have virtually no good wins, lost to what turned into a bad UT-San Antonio team at home and have a strength of schedule rating of 91st nationally.

On the other side, the most underrated team is Oklahoma State. This one though I am not so sure I do agree with. OSU is 61st in the Massey ratings, but only 74th in The Book poll. Highly thought of at the beginning of the season, the Cowboys have been run out of the building a few times recently including last week at home vs Texas. They do, however, carry the nation's #13 ranked schedule in with them.

Both the Sleeper and Toilet Bowl games were winners this past week. The bizarre ending to the East Carolina-Cincinnati game put the Sleeper game at 7-5 for the season and the Toilet Bowl rises to 5-7 on the year with Troy dumping Idaho in the Kibbie Dome.

This week, the Sleeper game is a rivalry game...The Big Game, with #42 Stanford traveling to #45 California. Vegas has Brian Favat's new favorite program giving 6 1/2, but the Book sees it as a pick em...leaning then toward the Bears. In the Toilet Bowl, one of the Book's all time favorite, bottom of the barrel programs, makes an appearance, the ever awful, Eastern Michigan Hurons (they are officially the Eagles now, but I can't in all good faith but them on any level with our BC Eagles). EMU at #127 visits #114 Ball State. The Hurons are so bad, that even against another triple figure ranked team, they are getting 16 1/2 in Vegas..not enough says The Book, willing to lay 19 1/2 with the Cardinals.

A Bonus Toilet Bowl game comes your way this week...and this one is a massive crapper: Brigham Young hosting #251 Savannah State. This is the same program that was beaten severely around the head and face last year (77-9 vs Georgia Southern, 66-3 vs Troy, 77-7 vs Miami FL and maybe most famously 84-0 at Oklahoma State in 2012). Now this is not a game that the Book has an official spread on, but what we are using to adjust BYU's rating is a season high 64 point spread!

It's not the College of Faith...but pretty close!

Check out the polls and the spreads and enjoy your football Saturday!

Go Eagles!

THE NATIONAL RANKINGS 1-20 (ADJUSTED)
RANK TEAM REC MASSEY
1 Oregon Ducks 9-1 2
2 Alabama Crimson Tide 9-1 1
3 Ohio State Buckeyes 9-1 7
4 Georgia Bulldogs 8-2 9
5 Ole Miss Rebels 8-2 3
6 TCU Horned Frogs 9-1 5
7 Baylor Bears 8-1 8
8 Florida State Seminoles 10-0 6
9 Michigan State Spartans 8-2 12
10 Mississippi St. Bulldogs 9-1 4
11 Marshall Thundering Herd 10-0 17
12 Wisconsin Badgers 8-2 14
13 Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets 9-2 18
14 Auburn Tigers 7-3 10
15 USC Trojans 7-3 23
16 UCLA Bruins 8-2 11
17 Kansas State Wildcats 7-2 13
18 Missouri Tigers 8-2 20
19 LSU Tigers 7-4 22
20 Arizona State Sun Devils 8-2 16

Others receiving votes: Oklahoma, Arizona, Nebraska, Arkansas, Utah

THE ACC RANKINGS (ADJUSTED)
RANK TEAM REC NATIONAL RANK
1 Florida St. Seminoles 10-0 8
2 Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets 9-2 13
3 Louisville Cardinals 7-3 26
4 Miami-Florida Hurricanes 6-4 28
5 Clemson Tigers 7-3 32
6 Duke Blue Devils 8-2 34
7 Virginia Tech Hokies 5-5 50
8 Boston College Eagles 6-4 53
9 Virginia Cavaliers 4-6 60
10 North Carolina Tar Heels 5-5 68
11 Pittsburgh Panthers 4-6 77
12 Syracuse Orange 3-7 82
13 N.C. State Wolfpack 5-5 83
14 Wake Forest Demon Deacons 2-8 115

THE WEEKLY NATIONAL AND ACC SPREADS
FAVORITE SPREAD UNDERDOG
Kansas St 2 at West Virginia
at Oregon 35.5 Colorado
at Ohio St 37.5 Indiana
at Michigan St 28.5 Rutgers
Marshall 25.5 at UAB
at Arizona St 18 Washington St
Mississippi 4 at Arkansas
at Florida St 20 Boston College
at Wisconsin 16.5 Iowa
at Baylor 33 Oklahoma St
at Tennessee 4 Missouri
at UCLA 2 USC
ACC
at Duke 12 N Carolina
Virginia Tech 14 at Wake Forest
Louisville 2 at Notre Dame
at Clemson 42 Georgia St
at Pittsburgh 5 Syracuse
Miami FL 7 at Virginia

Other BC Opponents
at Colorado St 19 New Mexico
UMass 5 at Akron