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The Book - Week 7 - October 11, 2014

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Eagles 2 point favorite in must win game at NC State, while despite an win for the ages, Ole Miss drops to #2

BC fans psyched learning Eagles favored at Pack
BC fans psyched learning Eagles favored at Pack
Greg M. Cooper-USA TODAY Sports

Didn't you wonder a little bit what this poll might look like after the mess of last week? Who would be #1 and where would all these Top 20 teams that lost wind up?

Ahh, the vagaries of a computer poll. Where else in the world could you possibly knock off a team ranked by most as the #2 team in the country and lose ground? Welcome to the world of The Book, where Ole Miss's win over Alabama (correctly picked by The Book as an outright winner) drops the Rebels from #1 to #2. Meet the new boss, same as the old boss...as the Auburn Tigers, who slapped around the LSU Tigers 41-7, use that big margin of victory to reclaim the top spot they held prior to UM.

The SEC stranglehold wasn't lost; however, some of the players have changed. The SEC still claims an incredible 5 of the top 10 and 7 of the top 20 spots. Although both Alabama and Texas A&M fell after their defeats.

I did hear a pretty funny joke today from of all people, the very dry, Ivan Maisel, on ESPN's Championship Drive Podcast that was also SEC-centric.

2nd grade math class in an SEC locale. What is 2 plus 2? 3rd and 6.

This week, rather than give you the usual Book poll, I am giving you an insight into the adjusted Book poll. This is the one I am in BETA for this year and believe is ultimately going to be more accurate picking a true top 20. While I still intend to use the regular Book formulas for point spreads, this version takes into account strength of schedule as well.

Are there oddities...well, of course there are. Marshall continues to rise, although in the Massey composite rankings, the Herd are now all the way up to #24. Just several weeks ago, they were in the 50s according to Massey. I would expect to see that rise continue into the AP and ESPN top 25s soon enough. Another surprise is Ohio State at #5. I believe the Buckeyes are a top 20 team, but this high? Similar to Marshall and to what Auburn did, margin of victory played a major part in OSU's rise back toward the top.

On the ACC side, Florida State, using margin of victory as well, moved up significantly this week, cracking the top 10. The Noles are the only ACC team in the adjusted rankings.

Meanwhile, Boston College stayed about even from last week, dropping just slightly to 56 in the country and 9th in the ACC. The Eagles will benefit from NC State's poor performance last week at Clemson and enter the game as 2 point favorites...ON THE ROAD!

THE NATIONAL RANKINGS 1-20 (ADJUSTED)
RANK TEAM REC MASSEY
1 Auburn Tigers 5-0 1
2 Ole Miss Rebels 5-0 2
3 Baylor Bears 5-0 5
4 Mississippi St Bulldogs 5-0 3
5 Ohio St Buckeyes 4-1 15
6 Marshall Thundering Herd 5-0 24
7 Oklahoma Sooners 4-1 6
8 Alabama Crimson Tide 4-1 7
9 Florida State Seminoles 5-0 4
10 Texas A&M Aggies 5-1 10
11 Michigan State Spartans 4-1 13
12 Notre Dame Fighting Irish 5-0 9
13 Georgia Bulldogs 4-1 16
14 TCU Horned Frogs 4-0 8
15 UCLA Bruins 4-1 11
16 Missouri Tigers 4-1 22
17 Arizona Wildcats 5-0 14
18 Nebraska Cornhuskers 5-1 17
19 Oregon Ducks 4-1 12
20 Utah Utes 4-1 25

Others receiving votes: Clemson, Stanford

THE ACC RANKINGS (ADJUSTED)
RANK TEAM REC NATIONAL RANK
1 Florida St. Seminoles 5-0 9
2 Clemson Tigers 3-2 21
3 Louisville Cardinals 5-1 23
4 Virginia Tech Hokies 4-2 30
5 Duke Blue Devils 4-1 35
6 Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets 5-0 36
7 Virginia Cavaliers 4-2 45
8 Miami Florida Hurricanes 3-3 55
9 Boston College Eagles 3-2 56
10 Pittsburgh Panthers 3-3 62
11 North Carolina Tar Heels 2-3 64
12 NC State Wolfpack 4-2 71
13 Syracuse Orange 2-3 75
14 Wake Forest Demon Deacons 2-4 99

THE WEEKLY NATIONAL AND ACC SPREADS
FAVORITE SPREAD UNDERDOG
Florida St 15 at Syracuse
at Missouri 3 Georgia
Oklahoma 12 Texas
at Marshall 29 M Tennessee
Alabama 4 at Arkansas
at Notre Dame 20 No Carolina
Michigan St 17 at Purdue
at UCLA 6 Oregon
Auburn 3 at Mississippi St
at Baylor 13 TCU
Mississippi 1 Texas A&M
at Arizona 3 USC

ACC
Boston College 2 at NC State
at Clemson 7 Louisville
at Georgia Tech 1 Duke

BC Opponents
at Kent St 5.5 UMass
Colorado St 3 at Nevada

Adding two picks this week for my sleeper game of the week...the two highest ranked teams flying under the radar and the weekly Toilet Bowl, featuring the two lowest ranked teams of the week. Lost both last week to stand at 2-3 for each after five weeks.

This week:

Sleeper Bowl:  #21 Clemson vs #23 Louisville (CU -7)

Toilet Bowl:  UMass makes yet another appearance!!  #124 UMass vs #117 Kent State (KSU -5.5)

With all the upsets, it is fairly remarkable that the Book could post a winning week. Even though it wasn't a big winner...we'll take it. 26-25-2 .509 with 4 the same as the Vegas spread, putting us at 123-129-5 .488 with 12 the same as we approach the halfway mark of the season.

Enjoy the games this week and go Eagles!