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Losing The Turnover Battle, Losing The War

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Coaching Search's Pete Roussel crunched the numbers and found that ACC teams that lost the turnover margin last season did not fare too well. And that teams that won the turnover battle did quite well for themselves.

Makes sense, right?

Boston College played well into this two trends in 2011. The Eagles were 1-5 when losing the turnover battle, 2-2 when winning it and 1-1 when the turnover battle was even.

Turnover Battles Lost (1-5)
-3 Florida St. Seminoles (L 7-38)
-2 @ Central Florida Knights (L 3-30)
-2 @ Clemson Tigers (L 14-36)
-2 @ Virginia Tech Hokies (L 14-30)
-2 @ Maryland Terrapins (W 28-17)
-1 Wake Forest Demon Deacons (L 19-27)

Turnover Battles Won (2-2)
+3 UMass Minutemen (W 45-17)
+3 @ Miami Hurricanes (W 24-17)
+1 Duke Blue Devils (L 19-20)
+1 @ Notre Dame Fighting Irish (L 14-16)

Turnover Battle Even (1-1)
0 Northwestern Wildcats (L 17-24)
0 N.C. State Wolfpack (W 14-10)

Overall, the Eagles finished the 2011 season -4 on the year, with a particularly poor record when losing the turnover battle. Compare BC's 1-5 record in games where they lost the turnover battle to an 0-3 record in 2010 and a 2-4 record in 2009.

Similarly, BC held a 13-4 record in games where they either won the turnover battle or played even heading into last season (3-3 when winning and 4-0 when even in 2010, 4-0 when winning and 2-1 when even in 2009). But it seems luck ran out on the Eagles in 2011, going just 3-3.

Cliche? Sure, but to me this season hinges on the Eagles ability to limit mistakes and convert on opportunities. The Eagles all too often failed to convert on turnovers gained in 2011, settling for field goals instead of six or coming away with no points at all. And if Doug Martin brings Bordner in under center only in goal line situations only, I'll be in the market for a new college football team in 2013.