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Boston College Hockey: Fun With Postseason Probabilities

By Brian F.
October 14, 2011; Boston MA, USA; Denver Pioneers defenseman Scott Mayfield (2) battles with Boston College Eagles winger Johnny Gaudreau (13) in the first period at Conte Forum. Mandatory Credit: Andrew B. Fielding-US PRESSWIRE
October 14, 2011; Boston MA, USA; Denver Pioneers defenseman Scott Mayfield (2) battles with Boston College Eagles winger Johnny Gaudreau (13) in the first period at Conte Forum. Mandatory Credit: Andrew B. Fielding-US PRESSWIRE

Updated postseason probabilities following BC's 7-0 victory over Providence. Be warned. You can probably waste hours of your life over at the indispensabile playoffstatus.com website.

[Ed. note -- To my knowledge, the below probabilities do not factor in the fact that we have Jerry York and everyone else doesn't]

Hockey East Regular Season (Saturday probabilities to Sunday probabilities)

Hockey East Regular Season Champs ... 88% to 94%
Hockey East Tournament No. 2 Seed ... 11% to 6%
Hockey East Tournament No. 3 Seed ... 1 % to < 1%
Hockey East Tournament No. 4 Seed ... < 1% to N/A (BC can no longer finish fourth or lower)

Hockey East Tournament

Hockey East Tournament Semifinals ... 85% to 85%
Hockey East Tournament Championship Game ... 54% to 55%
Hockey East Tournament Champions ... 30% to 32%

NCAA Tournament Seeding

NCAA Tournament No. 1 Overall Seed ... 67% to 79%
NCAA Tournament No. 2 Overall Seed ... 21% to 15%
NCAA Tournament No. 3 Overall Seed ... 7% to 4%
NCAA Tournament No. 4 Overall Seed ... 3% to 1%

NCAA Tournament Performance

NCAA Tournament Regional Semifinal ... > 99% to > 99%
NCAA Tournament Regional Final ... 73% to 74%
Frozen Four Participant ... 43% to 44%
NCAA Championship Game Participant ... 24% to 25%
NCAA National Champions ... 14% to 14%

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